Amped Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Problem is I’m not sure if it matters a ton…the low up in Canada is a problem if I’m not mistaken. It’s not really cold enough anyway 850s are way too warm. Surface is too. There's no point in tracking storms until we get cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: 850s are way too warm. Surface is too. There's no point in tracking storms until we get cold. Yeah. Just a few days ago it looked like Christmas Eve/Christmas was going to be fairly cold…not anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah. Just a few days ago it looked like Christmas Eve/Christmas was going to be fairly cold…not anymore It ain't right, I'm telling ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah. Just a few days ago it looked like Christmas Eve/Christmas was going to be fairly cold…not anymore Those Xmas Temps on the Euro have to be near record highs…what can you do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 12z GEFS starts dumping cold air into the eastern US after the New Year. Stout -NAO all the way through the run. Pretty amazing anomaly for a 16-day mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Those Xmas Temps on the Euro have to be near record highs…what can you do You tell the kids to go outside and enjoy the beautiful day. While you drink. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Those Xmas Temps on the Euro have to be near record highs…what can you do There's going to be a miracle sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GEFS starts dumping cold air into the eastern US after the New Year. Stout -NAO all the way through the run. Pretty amazing anomaly for a 16-day mean. Pretty decent agreement among the Canadian, GFS, and Euro ensembles for the timeframe into very early Jan. Much like with the fabled D10-15 blocking pattern presented on the models in early Jan of last year, it seems like we'll have to wait a while for those effects to show up in the medium range, only this time we're looking at that pattern shift 2 weeks earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Pretty decent agreement among the Canadian, GFS, and Euro ensembles for the timeframe into very early Jan. Much like with the fabled D10-15 blocking pattern presented on the models in early Jan of last year, it seems like we'll have to wait a while for those effects to show up in the medium range, only this time we're looking at that pattern shift 2 weeks earlier. Yep, today’s EPS also transitions into a pretty good looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I’m not giving up hope on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GEFS starts dumping cold air into the eastern US after the New Year. Stout -NAO all the way through the run. Pretty amazing anomaly for a 16-day mean. To my weenie uneducated eyes it also looks like we’re being helped there by the -EPO ridge shifting East pushing the western trough to the east, creating a broad CONUS trough (and the SE ridge gets shunted). Someone way more smarter than me could probably correct everything I just fooked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Yep, today’s EPS also transitions into a pretty good looking pattern. Nice to see that pretty stout 50/50 signal too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 6 hours ago, poolz1 said: I definitely hear what you are saying. But, the pattern is changing right on top of us. It was just 2 weeks ago or so that people were noting how "all the wrong colors are in all the wrong places." The ball of blue over AK and the all of the HLB locations. There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up. We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium. Personally, just a little help out west would be best. If we get a full on ++PNA that links up over the top the PV will be sitting over Lake Erie....especially with the strength of the west based block. A slow transition that ebbs and flows would be nice. I know what follows is perambulating banter ... ... this reminded me of 7th grade when I was waiting at the scorers table to enter the game for the first time with 7 seconds left. Alas .. the coach did not call time out. The pitfall of being a 4th string point guard. ... but hey it's mid-December the equivalent of the 2nd inning if you'll excuse my shifting to a baseball analogy. I mean the atmosphere is like a tub of water right - at some point the cold water is bound to slosh our way - and we'll have our window... but for now all we can do is ooh-and-ah about a stout hour 360 -NAO, hope that the MJO will quit tarryng in 7 and head into 8, and look forward to how good the pattern 15-days past the 360-hour ensemble mean should be if past history during similar patterns holds. Keep the faith: with only a bit of luck by mid-January, a few moisture-starved systems will pass near us and we will be able to return to worrying about the exact location of the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 EPS moved up the progression by 24 hours too so no can kicking. When this period was at range guidance teased a slightly colder look for next week but it was always precarious and the excellent pattern progression analysis Webb posted showed the SE ridge would temporarily pump again and we had to wait until January to get the trough in the east. The can isn’t being kicked we just aren’t being patient. This happens every time. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I think the 3rd or 4th week of Jan we should start to see the pattern evolve. An inch before the SB would be a definite win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 40 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: There's going to be a miracle sometime next week. If I know good shit is coming I can deal…and drink a lot like mattie g said…he is wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: An inch would be a definite win Setting realistic personal goals is a good thing 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just to illustrate. Gefs Dec 27 when it was 15 days away and now when it’s 9 days. The gefs hasn’t been kicking the can. That’s amazing consistency. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 WB 12Z EPS…patient I must be….but some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Just to illustrate. Gefs Dec 27 when it was 15 days away and now when it’s 9 days. The gefs hasn’t been kicking the can. That’s amazing consistency. Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means. Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 4 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Euro's got 60s on Christmas. Record is 72 at DCA. Let's burn it down. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means. Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area. And here I was thinking low to mid 40s on Christmas Day wasn't too much to ask...lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And here I was thinking low to mid 40s on Christmas Day wasn't too much to ask...lol It would be nice to get snow and cold. But that almost never happens. So I’m sure Christmas will be just fine if the weather is what it typically is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It would be nice to get snow and cold. But that almost never happens. So I’m sure Christmas will be just fine if the weather is what it typically is. Agreed. Hope ya feeling better buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It would be nice to get snow and cold. But that almost never happens. So I’m sure Christmas will be just fine if the weather is what it typically is. I thought mid 40s were a little more common? Median? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I thought mid 40s were a little more common? Median? Mid 60s are +20….so not average. Funny the GEFS had that like 12 days ago and I thought never…Ji posted Torchmas or something. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 no objection here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Early to mid Jan cold odds increasing 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I think we will switch PNA phases Jan 5, 10, or 15. Maybe later because the 384hr model has +300dm nearly still. NAO has been like a blotch since August, meaning the normal climate pattern was less -NAO, and it's like the -NAO has been pasted there. That may continue? We have been so opposite of last year, I love hugging that right now, but we had a monster -NAO last January, top 4 west-based -NAO on record actually, since 1948. I wonder if the NAO/AO trends positive when the -PNA lessens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I saw some major improvements so far on OP/ensembles Canadian & GFS. It really looks like Pac ridge will start to shift east towards Jan. This NAO block is absolutely insane. Sometimes as it we get closer in time models almost start to "sense" the block. Like tonight's run where the OP GFS went from nothing to snowstorm at 180 hours for NE. I'm starting to get giddy for January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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