Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: At least we still get Torchmas? Now see...I didn't have any expectations for precip next week...but dang if we get another torched Christmas...BOO! I'm hoping we can just pull of a good ol' fashioned 40-45 degree Christmas, for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now see...I didn't have any expectations for precip next week...but dang if we get another torched Christmas...BOO! I'm hoping we can just pull of a good ol' fashioned 40-45 degree Christmas, for crying out loud. GEFS has low to mid 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Some of y'all might have a better idea about the 'trends' if you stopped looking at op run surface maps. 5 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS has low to mid 40s. WUSA in DC just put the kbosh on a white Xmas...they seem smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Hey!! Memes are MY domain!! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The first meme was funnier 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 hours ago, H2O said: Next week storm is 100% Polar Express type thing. If you can't hear the bell it won't snow. I turned up my volume, and I swear I could hear a slight jingle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: This is unusual. It did happen in Jan 1980. True. It is interesting and significant, though not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I turned up my volume, and I swear I could hear a slight jingle. You sure it's not just tinnitus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: The first meme was funnier 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 How things have fallen. We go from the Panic Room to...warmed over used memes!! @WxWatcher007 must wonder why he went into retirement! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The GEFS has the NS energy digging south just as (what's left of) the southern shortwave reaches the coast of NC- where the baroclinic boundary lies as modeled. So it is captured but the coastal low develops a bit too late for the MA, and typical of a Nina, is good for points further NE. The op run was doing this a few runs ago with a much sharper NS shortwave, but has since backed off. The takeaway is we still cant know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: At least we still get Torchmas? Looks to be a beautiful warm sunny day out on the deck. Don’t forget your Xmas sunscreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 We just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: We just don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: The GEFS has the NS energy digging south just as (what's left of) the southern shortwave reaches the coast of NC- where the baroclinic boundary lies as modeled. So it is captured but the coastal low develops a bit too late for the MA, and typical of a Nina, is good for points further NE. The op run was doing this a few runs ago with a much sharper NS shortwave, but has since backed off. The takeaway is we still cant know. That PJ energy on the means continues to stay farther separated from the STJ. Pretty sure we are slipping away from a phase on the ens and more towards a weak southern slider. At least we have the EPS Christmas eve miracle threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Scraff said: Looks to be a beautiful warm sunny day out on the deck. Don’t forget your Xmas sunscreen. 12 minutes ago, mappy said: We just don't know. Discussion of the 240 hour 12Z GFS (on a warm, sunny day out on the deck)... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: no You are big mad because a 7 or 8 day phantom may or may not be there and emotionally want to handle your disappointment by being excited to be the first to say "SEE I TOLD YOU IT WAS A PHANTOM" Be better than this. Post better. Read more. Etc. LOL. Not what I meant at all. Do not take t personally and I could give a rip if I am wrong or first. The whole trend of the season is to overplay and show a lot of moisture in fronts and systems far out, only to squash them, suppress them, or dry them out. I see that on this "threat" as well. The trend seems to go from a system that could do something to a low that has inconsequential impact on us except a ton of wind and cold dry air. That is a trend we will fight all year with La Nina. I hope I am wrong, but this is not a good look. There was a good looking slug of moisture from a low showing on maps a couple days ago.. Now it is a small system disconnected from northern stream support. If it can't get that interaction, the southern stream will win and it does not have much to give this year. But you can get upset because it looks like that is the trend.. Which was not new with this run, or not believe it. That is uo to you.. But do not think you know my intentions. I reacted to you.. I responded to your comments. Anyways... I hope I am way wrong and maybe this is more model chaos than a trend.. But I meant no one anger or being upset by my response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Its December 14. THERE IS NO TREND TO THE SEASON. Stop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Its December 14. THERE IS NO TREND TO THE SEASON. Stop. the hell there ain't. The trend for my season is lots of egg nog. As for the weather, the trend is for there to not be a trend that we can tell if there is a trend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Its December 14. THERE IS NO TREND TO THE SEASON. Stop. I see now that you moved to snow country, you’re not as desperate of snow weenie like the rest of us. Haha jk, congrats on the move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do you guys think they’ll issue warnings? Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I see now that you moved to snow country, you’re not as desperate of snow weenie like the rest of us. Haha jk, congrats on the move It is SO much better up here (theoretically). Also, TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How things have fallen. We go from the Panic Room to...warmed over used memes!! @WxWatcher007 must wonder why he went into retirement! Retired and found my happily ever after! Meme away! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 - NAO retrograde looks better today, but the Pac is still so so. I feel we are never really going to see anything but a minor window of improvement on the Pac side during the course of the winter. Although there may be a favorable Pac transition in early Jan according to Roundy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I see now that you moved to snow country, you’re not as desperate of snow weenie like the rest of us. Haha jk, congrats on the move Where did ya move to @North Balti Zen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, frd said: - NAO retrograde looks better today, but the Pac is still so so. I feel we are never really going to see anything but a minor window of improvement on the Pac side during the course of the winter. Although there may be a favorable Pac transition in early Jan according to Roundy. IMO the key is for the pac ridge to stay poleward. We do need NAO blocking to get much snow in a nina. But if we really want to stack the deck we need the pac ridge to stay north and not become a flat mid latitude one like the last few years. So long as the pac ridge stays encroaching into the EPO domain we don't need the NAO to be some raging beast like last year. In mid winter a -EPO-NAO is a pretty cold pattern here. Whatever the models might show now...that cold in western canada will press southeast under the blocking. If we fail its more likely to be dry than warm imo. We did manage to mostly fail in 2011 with that look...but we were so close so many times to that being a pretty good year. 1979 is an example of a -epo-nao working really well. That was a enso neutral year though. 2013 and 2009 look similar in the means but the atlantic and pacific never worked in tandem. As the atlantic improved the pacific ridge would shift south. If we can get both the pacific ridge to stay poleward AND the nao to go negative at the same time I like our chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 This is why I talk about luck so much.... this winter... was snowier than this winter... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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