CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly right. Model watching outside of about 3-4 days is fun but nothing you pin hopes or disappointment on. This is why I almost exclusively post about the synoptics using the ensembles. Op runs are practically useless at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is why I almost exclusively post about the synoptics using the ensembles. Op runs are practically useless at this range. lets hope the OP runs are useless because they look pretty horrific right now....even post Christmas 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 From a cursory analysis this far out, grain of salt type stuff, L sitting over Great Lakes kills the storm on the CMC: 12Z GFS is further north so the storm can happen, although it's warm. That GLL needs to get the heck outta here for any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: This makes sense...post of the year goes to Yeoman. Hats off to you sir He is correct. Very little that is ever confirmed comes from 7+ days out snow wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Quasievil said: From a cursory analysis this far out, grain of salt type stuff, L sitting over Great Lakes kills the storm on the CMC: 12Z GFS is further north so the storm can happen, although it's warm. That GLL needs to get the heck outta here for any chance. We all know where this is headed, but I am hopeful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Quasievil said: From a cursory analysis this far out, grain of salt type stuff, L sitting over Great Lakes kills the storm on the CMC: 12Z GFS is further north so the storm can happen, although it's warm. That GLL needs to get the heck outta here for any chance. I’d think that a low in the lakes only aids in keeping the flow sw and causing it to be warm. I’d think suppressed vs amped would depend only upon the h5 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d think that a low in the lakes only aids in keeping the flow sw and causing it to be warm. I’d think suppressed vs amped would depend only upon the h5 setup The NS energy is stronger with a much sharper shortwave this run. That induces a low pressure at the surface over the GLs and also causes the coastal low to form further north as that sharp shortwave goes negative. This "trend" shows up on the 12z ensemble run as well. NS dominance with coastal lows forming to our NE in a Nina... a shocker! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 you all know that people are kidding when they say we can will snow, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 First GEFS plot (12z) I have seen for Xmas that has BN 850 temps...just a data point. low heights in NE helping with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 We might get a better idea about the outcome over the next 20 or so runs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: We might get a better idea about the outcome over the next 20 or so runs. Pretty sure we know how this will play out, but it's still fun to get the rust off and do some sort of tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 JMA went all NS...kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 The 12Z Euro should lower some eyelids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Last 4 runs of the EURO UL: 12 UT today. UR: 00 UT today LL: 12 UT yesterday; LR: 00 UT yesterday Next Monday's possible storm goes poof - for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Ya know, I can't stand squash...(would literally rather eat anything else). Ninas are met squash...disgusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 i'm going to Maine around new years and Ithaca in mid-january, I'll fedex some flakes back. JK it won't snow there either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 what a disaster this winter and hobby is 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, Ji said: what a disaster this winter and hobby is Weeklies apparently might put your weenie back in the bun and EPS signal for 20-21st isn’t terrible… 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weeklies apparently might put your weenie back in the bun and EPS signal for 20-21st isn’t terrible… whoa baby...they're a double bunner. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: whoa baby...they're a double bunner. Long range pants-tent! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: whoa baby...they're a double bunner. Here is a select cut. All for fun ofc with these super LR tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: whoa baby...they're a double bunner. Too bad I don’t have a double weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event It’s only about 6 weeks away…6 weeks after that it’s spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event Not for nothing, even with AGW, it probably will NOT be 55-60 for highs from here to March, so, yes, at some pojnt, there will be a pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event So what qualifies as a pattern change and what entity determines such? You? A 10 day global mean? We talking advertised or verified? Be more specific. I am thinking there is no real intended substance here. Just another shit post from you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event The pattern has changed several times since nov1. But no snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 From a respected met is this interesting roll forward analysis. This December appears to finish with a -NAO/-PNA combo. He stated that " Januaries that historically followed Decembers with a -NAO/-PNA featured favorable patterns for the E US with a significant west-based -NAO: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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