Ji Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Yeah the 384 hour GFS verifies verbatim frequently.It does when it comes to warmth 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Symmetry. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Symmetry. Is that a ridge bridge? Or the beginning of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is that a ridge bridge? Or the beginning of one. Trifecta. -EPO/-AO/-NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 -PNA too ofc. Need that Pac ridge to shift east some, or the favorable Atlantic may mostly be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Trifecta. -EPO/-AO/-NAO Copy. So what’s wrong with it? -EPO too far west driving the trough down the WC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Roger. -PNA bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Roger. -PNA bad. Not always, but it almost always is in a Nina, because it tends to be super negative and persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Maybe it’s selective memory but the pac screws us quite often. Looks like last year except for the cold Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not always, but it almost always is in a Nina, because it tends to be super negative and persistent. If it wasn’t for the Atl I bet we’d have a pig SER. Small victories I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 This comment might ruin the positive vibes about the long range, but I'm only going to mention my opinion here once. I'm skeptical that the MJO will cycle into phase 8, because the ensembles don't show much consistency. Back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If it wasn’t for the Atl I bet we’d have a pig SER. Small victories I guess Yes the advertised -NAO does flatten the SE ridge. You can notice the flatter height lines and weaker +height anomalies over the east as we move towards the 20th on the means. Not the ideal look for our area, but sets up a possible gradient pattern, and with cold lurking in west-central Canada and some decent timing, a wintry storm isn't out of the question by the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: -PNA too ofc. Need that Pac ridge to shift east some, or the favorable Atlantic may mostly be wasted. If the NAO ridge continues to retrograde west something will eventually cut underneath into the east and flip the pattern. That epo NAO combo is the kind of pattern that can lead to coast to coast cold. It’s the rare time we ”could” survive a -pna. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Gfs with a nice overrunning event next weekend. I'd say it's the @WxUSAF storm if this comes to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 4 hours ago, Chris78 said: Gfs with a nice overrunning event next weekend. I'd say it's the @WxUSAF storm if this comes to fruition. 1-3/2-4 before ice and rain... PW shows ISW criteria BR and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: 1-3/2-4 before ice and rain... PW shows ISW criteria BR and west Two GFS runs with ice. Data point. With follow up snow this time. GFS hitting the eggnog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Pretty decent signal on the 0z GEFS for a west to east moving wave in the late Sunday to early Tuesday timeframe. Some chilly enough air to the north to keep an eye on it as advertised. A handful of members indicate some frozen for the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Christmas week miracle still possible….WB 6Z GFS… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS through Christmas…like the couple of big hits to our south at this range. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 8 hours ago, Chris78 said: Gfs with a nice overrunning event next weekend. I'd say it's the @WxUSAF storm if this comes to fruition. Yikes, kiss of death 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 H/t @ORH_wxman 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the EPS 5 day mean ending 12/24 for both H5 and H85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Nice looking ridge out west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Nice looking ridge out west. Very nice indeed. That should be rather chilly for us if it verifies. Things are looking positive so far to not have Torchmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Very nice indeed. That should be rather chilly for us if it verifies. Things are looking positive so far to not have Torchmas I really like possible overrunning events. Maybe in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 H5 on the 6z GEFS looks super nice towards the end of the run. Pretty classic looking -NAO with low heights underneath off the Canadian Maritimes, -WPO/EPO, and western trough expanding eastward. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 WB 6Z GEFS through Christmas…like the couple of big hits to our south at this range.Yep we always snow when the pattern is beginning to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either. We are due for a 1996 type January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ji said: 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either. We are due for a 1996 type January We’re also due for eternal heartbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, baltosquid said: We’re also due for eternal heartbreak! Ha! That’s the only thing we’re not due for. Maybe 10 heartbreaks a year since 2016? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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