Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny, I was going ronuse that exact storm as an example but didn't want to imply we would have a redux this year. I'd pay good money for a solid 6" - 10" snowstorm Christmas Day. Wake up to overcast and have snow start falling as the coffee is coming up. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Real nice -NAO here at 384hr on Christmas. 3 strong cold waves around. -PNA with it too though. I think we had a progressing -NAO in Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov so we can do this. I suppose SWFE/gradient events could work out with the -PNA but iirc it helps to have a -AO in place also for those to work out for both of our respective regions. Otherwise the gradient tends to relax to our N. A strong 50/50 under the -NAO would help also which has been hinted at in the LR ensemble with weakness hanging out in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 I remember the day after the 2016 storm staying below freezing here. Temps got mild quickly in the days that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I remember the day after the 2016 storm staying below freezing here. Temps got mild quickly in the days that followed. The new normal. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: The new normal. Right? Evidently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 I remember the day after the 2016 storm staying below freezing here. Temps got mild quickly in the days that followed.Ya we didn't lose no 8 inches the next day That was feb 2006 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Evidently. It's only in the last ten years that snowpack started melting a few days after a storm. #thenewnormal 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'd pay good money for a solid 6" - 10" snowstorm Christmas Day. Wake up to overcast and have snow start falling as the coffee is coming up. We could start a Go fund me for this! It would be perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I suppose SWFE/gradient events could work out with the -PNA but iirc it helps to have a -AO in place also for those to work out for both of our respective regions. Otherwise the gradient tends to relax to our N. A strong 50/50 under the -NAO would help also which has been hinted at in the LR ensemble with weakness hanging out in that region. Yeah, our best pattern for big snowstorms is GOA Low, which is actually not far from -PNA(-PDO pattern). Problem can be the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Chris78 said: 6z kind of shows this in the 8 to 10 day time frame. Doesn't get the job done but you could see a scenario with a bit of stronger push from the north where a overrunning event could happen. Currently depicted the run has some snow up in PA. 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I suppose SWFE/gradient events could work out with the -PNA but iirc it helps to have a -AO in place also for those to work out for both of our respective regions. Otherwise the gradient tends to relax to our N. A strong 50/50 under the -NAO would help also which has been hinted at in the LR ensemble with weakness hanging out in that region. 12z gfs and GGEM both are close with this idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 We could start a Go fund me for this! It would be perfect! Too late....id rather it start christmas eve and then wake up to heavy ending late pm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: We could start a Go fund me for this! It would be perfect! Too late....id rather it start christmas eve and then wake up to heavy ending late pm heavy rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Phase 8 with decent amplitude....GEFS should continue to look decent toward the end of the run. Euro with the same look but just a little delayed by a day or two. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 One of the better GEFS runs at h5 up top near Xmas so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Phase 8 with decent amplitude....GEFS should continue to look decent toward the end of the run. Euro with the same look but just a little delayed by a day or two. Nice trends and if we are going to get a decent pattern heading into January is damn good time for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Trying to learn more about the MJO. Anyone got resources that a noob could use to educate themselves? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: One of the better GEFS runs at h5 up top near Xmas so far LOT to like on that GEFS run. -AO and -NAO builds from east-based to west-based by post-Xmas. And the -EPO keeps nudging eastward in time pushing the western trough more into the Rockies and high plains. And GEFS has actually been accelerating the changes rather than can-kicking. We were wondering about that given that the MJO phases forecast was not jiving with the H5 look. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: LOT to like on that GEFS run. -AO and -NAO builds from east-based to west-based by post-Xmas. And the -EPO keeps nudging eastward in time pushing the western trough more into the Rockies and high plains. And GEFS has actually been accelerating the changes rather than can-kicking. We were wondering about that given that the MJO phases forecast was not jiving with the H5 look. Been trying to resist commenting on here lately, but I'm sure I'm not the only one feeling burned by last year's "no cold air around" -NAO...lol How would you compare this to last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Been trying to resist commenting on here lately, but I'm sure I'm not the only one feeling burned by last year's "no cold air around" -NAO...lol How would you compare this to last year? It might not end up helping us much, but Canada is frigid this go around whereas last year Canada was almost completely above normal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Trying to learn more about the MJO. Anyone got resources that a noob could use to educate themselves? The basics are pretty simple if you use these two references and match the variable to the phase from the ensembles. Temperature: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Precip: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, chris21 said: It might not end up helping us much, but Canada is frigid this go around whereas last year Canada was almost completely above normal. This is an excellent obs. Canada was warm dumpster fire of temps last year - our source region for cold was of no help. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Agree with everyone else. Tons of very cold air in Canada. Not like last year at all where the blocking was just blocking in modified Pacific air masses. That’s legit arctic air in Canada. We just need a small slice. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 I think late Dec/early January will be cold (below normal temps), the question is whether or not there will be any precip. Perhaps our best chances for a storm are when the -NAO lifts out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said: I think late Dec/early January will be cold (below normal temps), the question is whether or not there will be any precip. Perhaps our best chances for a storm are when the -NAO lifts out? We do well when entering or exiting a pattern. We tend to only do clippers when inside "the pattern". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 We should start getting fantasy unicorn storms soon 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We should start getting fantasy unicorn storms soon This setup is starting to look better. This period has been popping a transient but stout PNA ridge and has southern energy meandering East with the blocking propagating towards Greenland from Scandinavia. These looks are getting nearer and time so I am starting to believe this pattern shift isn't just a head fake. Eta: maybe not a "pattern change" totally as it could prove to be transient. But in Nina I have learned that it is these pattern reloads where we have our better chances and need to eventually cash-in during late Dec/Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 We should start getting fantasy unicorn storms soon Merry Christmas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021121018&fh=384 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Merry Christmashttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021121018&fh=384 You gotta laugh at this stuff…this will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Yeah the 384 hour GFS verifies verbatim frequently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now