Paleocene Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Before. I'm wishing for a climo Christmas, just like the ones we used to know. 70F, t-shirts, choking woodsmoke haze and a warm SW wind or bust. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: 70F, t-shirts, choking woodsmoke haze and a warm SW wind or bust. This is where cold Novembers lead you. We might be doubly f*cked from the bad climo and pattern recognition I cannot even imagine what is waiting for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 WB 12Z EURO….. little clipper action under Day 7. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 All 3 globals have something like that in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame next week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Insert “It’s Happening” gif here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO….. little clipper action under Day 7. That's more than a little action... when is the last time we've seen a good clipper? Was it really Jan. 2015? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That's more than a little action... when is the last time we've seen a good clipper? Was it really Jan. 2015? Let’s see if it is there on the next run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Let’s see if it is there on the next run!!! Trust me, I'm not optimistic, but various OP runs (as @WxUSAFhave mentioned) have teased the idea of a vort popping through in the period. Ens support hasn't been anything stellar, but eagerly seeing what the 12z EPS look like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 The 12z EPS Control comes through with the clipper and tacks on an extra tenth or two Wednesday. ENS aren't super impressed with the period but show chances on both Monday and Wednesday. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All 3 globals have something like that in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame next week. For now…for now… Hopefully the signal remains. I think the pattern supports some activity regardless of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 44 minutes ago, Scraff said: Insert “It’s Happening” gif here? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 On 11/21/2021 at 7:15 AM, WxUSAF said: Some signs that maybe we can get the MJO out of the maritime continent toward phase 7 (at least) with some amplitude during the first week of December. After the probable warm start to December, that could force some colder conditions into the second week. DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. My 6" - 10" hybrid Miller A for Christmas Eve is starting to line up. 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Have been following the (threat?) next week for a bit but almost all of the gfs runs have the storm never quite survive and has it reform too Far East. What’s the difference in pattern that is causing the Euro to support it while the GFS has the low die off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 By the end of the month I just want to see some some flurries or a show shower. We have to remember that it is only November, that said it would be awesome if this clipper worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 GFS had this same feature just a couple of days ago but I think it had it on Sunday. Have to wait for good data once all players are on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Have been following the (threat?) next week for a bit but almost all of the gfs runs have the storm never quite survive and has it reform too Far East. What’s the difference in pattern that is causing the Euro to support it while the GFS has the low die off? This GIF shows the differences between the 3 globals for this shortwave. GFS doesn't even key on that shortwave at all. GGEM phases it with another northern stream shortwave, which pulls it north. Euro keeps it separate and has very suppressive flow offshore in the Atlantic, which keeps it tracking south of us. From previous clipper experience+climo, the GFS or GGEM solutions are FAR more likely than the Euro solution. These northern stream shortwaves usually pass to our north, especially in November! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Before. I'm wishing for a climo Christmas, just like the ones we used to know. I got a good feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Scraff said: Insert “It’s Happening” gif here? Radio show? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. Isn't the MJO the thing that teased us all winter long back in 2019-20? And wreaked havoc with LR forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Monday's "event". ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and CMC 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 GFS love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Monday's "event". ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, and CMC I’ll go with the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: DT woofing about this now as the Australian MJO forecast shows the wave getting to phase 8 with moderate-strong amplitude by Dec 10 and then going into the COD from there. If that happens, that should provide a long wave pattern supportive of cold/snow for us in mid-December. Did he DM you on twitter too? I love my chats with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 11/22/2021 at 8:50 AM, ldub23 said: JB is right again. Here comes winter and a bitter cold Dec. He is now saying signs point to a very cold Jan. Wait...did he just refer to "Biden Blackouts?" What an embarrassingly unprofessional fuqstiq. Dude's brain is a ball of rot from all the juice he's been juicin'. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: Did he DM you on twitter too? I love my chats with him He did not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 ICON keeps this little clipper just to our south which is probably exactly where we want it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Canadian is further south than previous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON keeps this little clipper just to our south which is probably exactly where we want it at this point Definitely want it south right now. Almost always adjust north within 24-48 hours. GFS has the energy as well, just weaker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Has it come ashore yet? Looking amped? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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