Baltimorewx Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Any 6z euro update ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'll take the 3-4" 6z GFS shows for me lol I will take half that and smile...even half of that half and still at least smirk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 WB overnight extended GEFS control sees some cold coming… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Any 6z euro update ? Nothing worthwhile to show… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 @WxUSAF here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 WB 6Z… models that show snow that I found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 The 12z GFS continues to show a decent storm for next Sunday. Just looking at the precip type map it looks like a pretty good snow event to the NW. However, looking at the sounding, there is nothing but dry air in the dendritic snow growth zone. It's possible that there could be some wet snow to end, but too much dry air works in by the time the column is cold enough for snow. Mostly a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Gonna enjoy whatever happens Wednesday before the mid-month TORCH. But, I don't hate the MJO progression as we head toward Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 More signs that the torch shouldn’t last forever. Last nights ensemble means finally showed some changes in the long range with a -EPO and AO going more neutral on GEFS and EPS. Still rough over us though because of a -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Looks like we aren't the only ones suffering through warm/dry. Not a good recipe for next year's fire season out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Maybe some positive changes start near December 20 th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR. That should start to help shift things around. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB overnight extended GEFS control sees some cold coming… Maybe a good pattern just in time for my journey back to the states. Hopefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: That should start to help shift things around. Specifically in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said: Specifically in what way? It may effect the PV in a positive way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR. This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted. A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time. I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted. A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time. I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th. 18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong. But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described. A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it. Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec. Just in time for prime climo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised.It will change by Thursday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised. Yeah it’s pretty meh, as advertised. Need that AK ridge to shift eastward and poleward a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Latest extended GFS advertising some -NAO help at end of the month, which helps flatten the SE ridge. Been seeing some hints and lots of chatter about the possibility, but lets see if this idea shows up on LR ensemble guidance as we get closer. Would make some sense if the MJO continues to progress into the better phases. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 This potential SPV disruption and migration south of a PV lobe seems to be what the latest runs of the CFS are keying on for a rather sudden shift of the h5 pattern, resulting in a cold outbreak over the east the very end of Dec into early Jan. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I'll gladly take a "Heat Miser" Christmas for a nice January storm aka 2016. Any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Getting some cross polar flow to start the new year would be great. Worried though that we’d still be stuck with trying to thread the needle with systems like tomorrow’s to take advantage of it. GFS likes a strong Scandinavian ridge just beyond 10 days, maybe that’s the first domino to fall towards getting the New Year pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Keep moving MJO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Still out in time, but provides some hope for late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 All of this discussion is well and good but when do I start seeing fantasy snow storms again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: All of this discussion is well and good but when do I start seeing fantasy snow storms again? we need to first get through this weekend's april event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 It’s frustrating now but the very slow speed of the mjo wave will be a good thing in a few weeks. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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