December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Scraff]

Sunday happy hour GooFuS? I approve! 

[Ji]

Gfs falling apart

[Kleimax]

Slip sliding away unfortunately.

[SnowenOutThere]

Where is the north friend when we need it?

[Ji]

Where is the north friend when we need it?

Never happens when we need it. 00z gfs will probably have no precip over the area

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs falling apart

18z seems just fine. Heaviest stripe south. You know better dude.  It comes north. 

[Rhino16]

I should’ve changed RIC to 0.5” before the contest ended. 

[Ji]

18z seems just fine. Heaviest stripe south. You know better dude.  It comes north. 

It's not that kind of system that just comes north

[Chris78]

A couple more cycles and the gfs will look like the euro.

[Scraff]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

18z seems just fine. Heaviest stripe south. You know better dude.  It comes north. 

It's not that kind of system that just comes north

Whatever happens…happens, but at least we have some digital snow to shovel. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think this is purely a timing issue. I expect a lot of back and forth with this. We shall see

[Prestige Worldwide]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Dr. No is on a roll today.  December seasonal update says we wait until April for normal temps.

spin the wheel and see what happens 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS

[Ji]

WB 18Z GFS

Running out of real estate

[CAPE]

From Mount Holly-

Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. 

 

Is this really still a thing lol?

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

From Mount Holly-

Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. 

 

Is this really still a thing lol?

I thought that was just weather weenie talk when the models aren't showing what we want to see. 

[Ji]

From Mount Holly-
Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. 
 
Is this really still a thing lol?

Sounds so mrf 2004

[jaydreb]

GEFS a slight improvement from 12z for DC metro FWIW.  

[Weather Will]

Sterling NWS take this afternoon…

So, overall there is still some uncertainty, but looking like a
decent shot for some of the area to see the first snowfall of
the winter (east of the mountains of course). Preliminary
forecast gives a broad 1-2" along and west of I-95. There is the
potential for higher amounts with this storm in areas of
mesoscale banding. These are notoriously difficult to predict
the exact location of, so at this point, uncertainty is too high
to speculate where those higher amounts may be. Stay tuned to
the latest forecast for this potential winter storm at
weather.gov/lwx/winter.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

18z seems just fine. Heaviest stripe south. You know better dude.  It comes north. 

It's not that kind of system that just comes north

Don't be a crybaby.  Heaven forbid the southern members actually see flakes.  

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Don't be a crybaby.  Heaven forbid the southern members actually see flakes.  

Southern members have actually done extremely well compared to the heart of the forum the past several winters.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Southern members have actually done extremely well compared to the heart of the forum the past several winters.

Wtf?  We haven't had snow to cover the grass since 2018.  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO flurries to our north at 7am.  Nothing rest of day….I am not waking up for the overnight run.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO flurries to our north at 7am.

Well we gave it a go

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well we gave it a go

It’s mid December, not mid March, everyone relax—-  at least until the cold spell in late month early January also disappears.

[WinterWxLuvr]

People don’t believe in superstition? How about results? Seems to happen every time with any marginal event. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo. 

 

Comparing this season so far to similar cold ensos I do think that’s where we go at some point. But we mostly wasted similar good looks in some of those similar comps Ive been looking at so not sure how to feel. 

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

That is something you have mentioned previously.  I think you speculated that perhaps its the case that the effect of the "good" MJO phases are muted/non-existent if they are contraposed to the current base state.  If that were to be true, then one would expect the upcoming time in 7 (assuming it actually verifies) to have little or no noticeable impact.

Perhaps its still better to have it in in 7 and not helping rather than in 4-5-6 and actively hurting.

Or maybe none of the old logic makes any difference in the new regime anymore. 

It’s too early to say what the base state is 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

From Mount Holly-

Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. 

 

Is this really still a thing lol?

It’s possible what they mean are observed issues the guidance is having with initializing that feature accurately and not the tired waiting to come ashore thing. 

38 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Don't be a crybaby.  Heaven forbid the southern members actually see flakes.  

If you cared that much you wouldn’t live there 

[jaydreb]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO flurries to our north at 7am.  Nothing rest of day….I am not waking up for the overnight run.

Dr. No is already in mid-season form.  

[aldie 22]

Wasn't there recently a big discussion on how poorly the euro has been performing? Wishful thinking I suppose hopefully it juices up a bit for a coating 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wasn't there recently a big discussion on how poorly the euro has been performing? Wishful thinking I suppose hopefully it juices up a bit for a coating 

Recently, without a consensus, I’d rather have the gfs on our side than the euro.