CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: New grass? Actually I am at the tail end of a landscaping project. Some new grass yeah but got that established in October, and with the colder weather it can handle the dry. It's the new shrubs/trees I have been picking away at planting for the last month or so(all evergreens). Been having to water them occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Looks like a patch of light sprinkles/flurries passing through on the EURO 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Hi res Euro looks like the Rgem. East of the Blue Ridge for any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Toss it because I said so 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GFS looks amazing and would be our biggest December event in over a decade but I think we can all see the writing on the wall. It's probably 1-2 runs away from being the Euro/CMC. 12z GEFS took a big step in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Can anybody post the euro? Just trying to see if it’s actually any worse than 6z was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Can anybody post the euro? Just trying to see if it’s actually any worse than 6z was 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yep it’s worse lol thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seems legit. Skips over my house. At least it can’t get worse for me. I’m in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yep it’s worse lol thanks I think my PBP was pretty accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sweet! Tracking flurries. I’m in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Dr. No is on a roll today. December seasonal update says we wait until April for normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Dr. No is on a roll today. December seasonal update says we wait until April for normal temps. So 60s instead of 80s? Sweet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Dr. No is on a roll today. December seasonal update says we wait until April for normal temps. He is not our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 46 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Can anybody post the euro? Just trying to see if it’s actually any worse than 6z was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo. That would be good timing...better than it being the case now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo. That would be good timing...better than it being the case now It seems to have nailed the upcoming (crap) pattern, assuming it verifies as advertised. It had the h5 look we are currently seeing on the global ensembles over the next 2 weeks+ more than a month ago, when there was talk of HL blocking among the twitter geeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo. That second map reminds me of 2010. Something brewing on the southern jet off the coast of Baja as well. Tasty looking map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Well the NAM is nice still but I guess it would really be done if the NAM wasn’t a bit amped at range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 hours ago, WxUSAF said: With this increasingly coherent MJO passage past the dateline, we should start to see some response in the ensemble mean 500mb anomalies. But yikes, they haven’t yet. I remember a few years ago someone was arguing why a cold phase mjo wasn’t actually going to be cold using a bunch of really specific variables. I remember I got annoyed because I asked “well when those 18 things are all true what mjo phase do we want if 8 is no good and got no answer”. Maybe this will be another example of how the mjo works except when it doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The line between decent and next to nothing on this system seems very thin. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this become a surprise as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too. I will gladly take that December 20th into at least January 19th. It also makes sense given we will be in a strong MJO phase 7 wave by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 18Z 12K. Would take 2 inches in Phase 6 MJO in a heartbeat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I remember a few years ago someone was arguing why a cold phase mjo wasn’t actually going to be cold using a bunch of really specific variables. I remember I got annoyed because I asked “well when those 18 things are all true what mjo phase do we want if 8 is no good and got no answer”. Maybe this will be another example of how the mjo works except when it doesn’t. Here's the rub though there usually is a lag time before we feels the effects of phase 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 12K. Would take 2 inches in Phase 6 MJO in a heartbeat. It’s kinda good to see northern ish solution…Expected to see RIC jack… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 So if someone more knowledgeable could chime in, I’ve been watching what looks like a little vort that started in far northern Quebec trend further and further southwest (edit: corrected from southeast) for Wednesday through a number of runs now, particularly on the gfs. 12z had it at the south end of James bay around crunch time. If that were to continue, could that potentially influence the storm we’re tracking to head further north? I think I remember last year we lost a storm when a piece of the TPV came down too far and the storm we wanted ended up feeling that and cutting instead. Not sure if that’s in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I remember a few years ago someone was arguing why a cold phase mjo wasn’t actually going to be cold using a bunch of really specific variables. I remember I got annoyed because I asked “well when those 18 things are all true what mjo phase do we want if 8 is no good and got no answer”. Maybe this will be another example of how the mjo works except when it doesn’t. That is something you have mentioned previously. I think you speculated that perhaps its the case that the effect of the "good" MJO phases are muted/non-existent if they are contraposed to the current base state. If that were to be true, then one would expect the upcoming time in 7 (assuming it actually verifies) to have little or no noticeable impact. Perhaps its still better to have it in in 7 and not helping rather than in 4-5-6 and actively hurting. Or maybe none of the old logic makes any difference in the new regime anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 There would be some flakes on the 18z..more than we had the other morning I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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