clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t trust those models that far out The RGEM was horrid last winter for sure. I dont trust any of them. Was just making an observation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 6z euro maps? Posted on the previous page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, mappy said: Posted on the previous page Thanks. Don’t know how I missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Gfs kinda legit ETA: i should add relative to its prior runs. This one is prob the best yet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12z GFS keeps it all snow for the area and still has the storm be moderately juicy. I’m other words about the best outcome for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: So realistically that’s about 1-2 on the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 12z GFS keeps it all snow for the area and still has the storm be moderately juicy. I’m other words about the best outcome for this system. Someone should start a thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6z GFS ensembles are really strong with +EPO.. step outside now it's 60. This will be the pattern for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Nice GIF/analysis from Webb. Wouldn’t mind it trending a *little* more south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The GFS right now is obviously a best case scenario but it’s been trending towards CMC and Euro which is south and would lead to a drier solution I would assume. Just need to have that trend stop and the euro and cmc to come back a bit more juiced. If so maybe 2-4” area wide of solid paste could be in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The gfs is last to this party and, for me, cannot be trusted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Someone should start a thread. Just tell me when, I got you covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 we need to have the south trend stabilize by Monday then the north trend to bring us back into the spot where the GFS is right now, what can go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 And the CMC is looking to set up to say “what storm” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: we need to have the south trend stabilize by Monday then the north trend to bring us back into the spot where the GFS is right now, what can go wrong? A sheared out mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: And the CMC is looking to set up to say “what storm” lol It’s saying sorry folks just passing through on my way to squashtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: And the CMC is looking to set up to say “what storm” lol While the GFS has trended south, it is still more amped/wet than the rest of the global guidance. The NAM is too, but it is always like that at range. Probably not a winning combo against everything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Pretty clear to see why GFS has trended toward the Euro/CMC: stronger confluence to the north in each successive run squashes the system. Given the +EPO/-PNA and the disappearance of Atlantic blocking, it'll be in and out in a hurry. Doesn't mean the MA can't thread the needle, but a completely sheared out mess is very much on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Nobody mentioned the ICON but it is similar to the GFS. A little less amped though. UKie is ugly. maybe a half inch up around Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: a completely sheared out mess is very much on the table It always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Lol, it’s gonna be funny if on Wednesday everyone is saying “wow I wish we could get some meaningful precipitation” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, it’s gonna be funny if on Wednesday everyone is saying “wow I wish we could get some meaningful precipitation” A few days ago I was just hoping for some rain lol. Dry AF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Pretty clear to see why GFS has trended toward the Euro/CMC: stronger confluence to the north in each successive run squashes the system. Given the +EPO/-PNA and the disappearance of Atlantic blocking, it'll be in and out in a hurry. Doesn't mean the MA can't thread the needle, but a completely sheared out mess is very much on the table. We do threading the needle so well tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, it’s gonna be funny if on Wednesday everyone is saying “wow I wish we could get some meaningful precipitation” You're turning into a downer man. Buck up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: You're turning into a downer man. Buck up! You’re late to the party. I’ll repeat it just so you know … it my opinion that lack of precip hurts us more often than lack of proper temps do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: A few days ago I was just hoping for some rain lol. Dry AF here. New grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re late to the party. I’ll repeat it just so you know … it my opinion that lack of precip hurts us more often than lack of proper temps do. I’ll politely disagree since you can get nice snows with meager precip if it’s cold enough. And by nice I mean a 3” snow with temps in the 20s and only needing .10-.20”precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, H2O said: I’ll politely disagree since you can get nice snows with meager precip if it’s cold enough. And by nice I mean a 3” snow with temps in the 20s and only needing .10-.20”precip I agree. Meager precip for mean means upwards of a quarter of an inch. We get that Wednesday and I’ll be thrilled. It’s those 0.05 deals that grind my gears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS looks amazing and would be our biggest December event in over a decade but I think we can all see the writing on the wall. It's probably 1-2 runs away from being the Euro/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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