StormchaserChuck! Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Expect the warmer solutions to win out from now until Christmas. The good news is we are kind of doing a February pattern now, so February may be more +PNA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: Expect the warmer solutions to win out from now until Christmas. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: Why? -PNA/+NAO. I watch for 15 years that the indexes in the medium range preceded local trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Lol 6z GFS for next Sunday. Anafrontal events with dynamic cooling needed to get snow. We excel at those!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Lol 6z GFS for next Sunday. Anafrontal events with dynamic cooling needed to get snow. We excel at those!! Can count on one hand the number of times those events worked out. It's not all my fingers either, I can tell you that haha. Best one in my memory was one when I was in college in November of all months. Back in Baltimore.....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Can count on one hand the number of times those events worked out. It's not all my fingers either, I can tell you that haha. Best one in my memory was one when I was in college in November of all months. Back in Baltimore.....meh I mean, sure, it can happen. But I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 With this increasingly coherent MJO passage past the dateline, we should start to see some response in the ensemble mean 500mb anomalies. But yikes, they haven’t yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, sure, it can happen. But I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling. Anafrontal events producing snow seem to show up pretty frequently in the LR on the GFS. Almost never materialize ofc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Anafrontal events producing snow seem to show up pretty frequently in the LR on the GFS. Almost never materialize ofc. They materialize, just not here. Last year at Christmas the entire region from Chattanooga to Rochester got hammered with one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: With this increasingly coherent MJO passage past the dateline, we should start to see some response in the ensemble mean 500mb anomalies. But yikes, they haven’t yet. Might be a case where the ensembles 'catch on' and flip within a few runs, but I am more inclined to think it will take some time before the longwave pattern shifts. Still seeing hints on the extended products at the very end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The euro for next Sunday isn’t that far from something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro for next Sunday isn’t that far from something significant. Euro Ens mean has a low tracking way NW, Temps in the 60s on Sat leading in, 50s on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 True but the WB 0Z EURO control has next weekend’s event… so GFS is not complete fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Anafrontal events producing snow seem to show up pretty frequently in the LR on the GFS. Almost never materialize ofc. I'm going on my first vacation since before COVID and leaving Saturday. Would make perfect sense that the first snow in 4yrs falls on the time when I'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 With there now being a possible storm mid week and end week I thought I would make a thread to differentiate the two discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Euro Ens mean has a low tracking way NW, Temps in the 60s on Sat leading in, 50s on Sunday.Its a week out dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro Ens mean has a low tracking way NW, Temps in the 60s on Sat leading in, 50s on Sunday. Its a week out dude Thus why Ens mean > random op run. All these years and you are still a shit poster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro Ens mean has a low tracking way NW, Temps in the 60s on Sat leading in, 50s on Sunday. Well, yeah. The low is well NW when you live out near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 6z euro? A bit juicier than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, yeah. The low is well NW when you live out near Bermuda. That was a funny post, but all the crappy ones overwhelm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: With there now being a possible storm mid week and end week I thought I would make a thread to differentiate the two discussions. lol no. Sorry friend, give it another day or so 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Thus why Ens mean > random op run. All these years and you are still a shit poster.Yea we all know how well ensembles do a week out with winter storms. Even 3-4 days out last year...they are unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, mappy said: lol no. Sorry friend, give it another day or so I don’t have the words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t have the words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 12K NAM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12Z RGEM not bad for you guys to the east. Maybe an inch east of the Blue Ridge. Sucks out this way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Can count on one hand the number of times those events worked out. It's not all my fingers either, I can tell you that haha. Best one in my memory was one when I was in college in November of all months. Back in Baltimore.....meh If you are talking about the one circa 15 Nov in 1987, I remember it well... Was a tremendous surprise. Brought the DC commute to its knees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z RGEM not bad for you guys to the east. Maybe an inch east of the Blue Ridge. Sucks out this way though. Don’t trust those models that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM 6z euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now