SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS not caving tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I'd be wary most of that accumulated stuff TT shows is sleet... soundings at 90 are def sleety.... 96 is isothermal for a lot of the column 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS 6in for Baltimore north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kleimax said: GFS 6in for Baltimore north More like 2 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kleimax said: GFS 6in for Baltimore north 2 minutes ago, yoda said: More like 2 inches 4” is quite the discrepancy in most things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: 4” is quite the discrepancy in most things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, yoda said: More like 2 inches More like an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS still has the storm riding up the boundary next weekend. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: More like an inch 2” at my house. This is an IMBY sport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS gives me cold rain and pity flakes, which is about what I expect out of this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is. I heard ukmet was decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: 2” at my house. So the usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is. I heard ukmet was decent That's unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is. I heard ukmet was decent 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 00Z CMC is around a I66 and south event basically... 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00Z CMC is around a I66 and south event basically... 1-3" What's nice about the Canadian is that the entire column is cold enough for snow... -5c all the way down to around 900mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 EURO is yuck... maybe 6 hours of snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 0z euro looks like about .5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 0z euro looks like about .5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, Yeoman said: So the usual? Only when I’m looking at a picture of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks good for Short Pump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 6Z GFS. Midweek and next weekend, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS. Midweek and next weekend, Thanks Will. Jackpot over my house so it seems legit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 6Z NAM is getting on bd. It will be interesting to see the 6z EURO… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Probably heading to Rehoboth for a day or 2 later this week. Might work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably heading to Rehoboth for a day or 2 later this week. Might work out. I might have to go back to AA county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 6Z EURO. Seems like the best we can hope for in the midweek storm is a general 1-3 if everything comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I might have to go back to AA county lol If the Euro is correct, it would be a dusting to a half inch if it even managed to come down hard enough to accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 There's not much more that needs to be dissected in the upper air pattern on the GFS and Euro to see why the two are so different. Here's the Euro for 12z Wednesday. Look at the amplitude of the flow out ahead of the s/w that's moving through the Tenn. Valley. The height rises are almost non-existent, meaning the diffluent pattern is aimed at VA with weak PVA over MD to offer some light snow chances that'll amount to T-1" totals with 1-3" south of Fredericksburg. Now, let's look at the 06z GFS.... Look at the vigor of the s/w over the Tenn. Valley and the attendant height rises out ahead of the disturbance. It's night and day where the diffluent pattern downstream is all the way up into MD/PA, meaning the mean QPF shield would be focused in our neck of the woods. Now, the thermal profile is more touchy in the beginning with some sleet/zr depictions at first, but when the upstream s/w over Minnesota catches up to the lead s/w, it amplifies the disturbance nearby and the dynamics aloft aid in changing precip back to snow for the back half of the storm, especially for areas north Rt 50. This is the best type of progression for a light-mod event with 2-5" possible for a larger coverage of the sub-forum. Keep an eye on those features as they are the main players in this ordeal. Flow will be fast, so don't expect any super amplification on this one. Quick and dirty is how you rack up stats in these parts outside the KU's and SWFE's. 9 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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