CAPE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My bad. I’ll try to do better. I know it’s been a bad week for you after Ji told you that you live in the ocean I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. Lol, wouldn’t that just be a kick in the seeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. At least you wouldn't have to worry about soil temps. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS 3 inch or more percentage took a nice jump…hopefully beginning of a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What’s the range of the 18z euro? 144 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What’s the range of the 18z euro? 144 hours? Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Suppressed? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Suppressed? Yes compared to GFS 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 But the EURO has been awful. Let’s wait for the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 It was super suppressed at 0z last night if I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It was super suppressed at 0z last night if I remember It was a suppressed, weak ass, strung out mess to be exact. And it's British cousin looked similar. We all know how this is going to end, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was a suppressed, weak ass, strung out mess to be exact. And it's British cousin looked similar. We all know how this is going to end, right? Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 It’s early in the season folks. We will have a 100 failures and be lucky to have five hits…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good(bad) 2 weeks imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready Letzz do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good 2 weeks imo. We are going to get pretty amped into 7. I will be shocked if we dont make it to 8 in late Dec early Jan at this point. If we can keep some blocking north of us and keep the AO at least neutral I will take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 All snow talk aside the 18z gfs verbatim would make for a fun Sunday next weekend for many. Quite the wind event. Of course, it's a model run for 8 days out so it won't go down exactly like that. (I know. Good job Sherlock Holmes. ) But it just shows that we are going to be in an active pattern for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 18Z EURO ensembles are in line with its deterministic. Weak, south, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready The laziest word in meteorology: “blend.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 00z NAM (yes, I know) is also looking too weak and suppressed to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: superstitious much? No, but I am a little stitious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z NAM (yes, I know) is also looking too weak and suppressed to amount to much. Other guidance looks similar at same time. Need to get out beyond 84 for things to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: Other guidance looks similar at same time. Need to get out beyond 84 for things to pop. It’s far enough to tell what would happen. It would be weak and very likely nothing of consequence. The SW is not amplified enough on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon is a little snow mostly southeast of DC but it’s largely a strung out weak non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon is meh... 1-2 for C VA... maybe an inch up to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Icon is meh... 1-2 for C VA... maybe an inch up to DC A third of the seasonal total is far from "meh" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Lol 00z GFS at 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol 00z GFS at 78 and 84 Gfs not backing down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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