StormchaserChuck! Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 +PNA now evolves to +EPO then -PNA, it was what, 74 yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Wow. I am feeling quite overwhelmed at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 Looks like the beginning of December will be nice at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 It’s a good thing we started a new thread to change the mojo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s a good thing we started a new thread to change the mojo may as well keep having fun. I am not seeing a "storm mode" in our near future. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS and EPS for today is not a blowtorch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 It's a good -NAO, but we are going to need more than this for a good Winter. How did we do recently, get some good snowstorms in the last 10 years? https://ibb.co/6Ht8C2g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 There is no southern jet action. It's la Nina dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 1995 is the only other recent year that had warm subsurface+anomalies, while Nina at the surface. All of my analog methods said -PNA, but we'll see, they were just roll forward. +EPO pattern 19-20 and 18-19 analogs is strong imo. Good example of opposite example https://ibb.co/d2JGy2n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Ji said: There is no southern jet action. It's la Nina dead Yep. And once again it appears the cold air will trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early this winter. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. And once again it appears the cold air will trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early this winter. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come in the future. I never did understand this...folks said it last year but I never understood what was meant by "trapped on the other side". Trapped by what? (I'm not sure I can Google this, or even what TO Google, so someone kindly help me out here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I never did understand this...folks said it last year but I never understood what was meant by "trapped on the other side". Trapped by what? (I'm not sure I can Google this, or even what TO Google, so someone kindly help me out here) No CPF available. If we are to cash in during a Nina year, we are going to rely on HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions. An EPO ridge on steroids will help too. But there is zero semblance of any SER either....and while this is OK for keeping unseasonable warmth at bay, it will also allow for systems to slide/shred. Another thing I've noticed so far early, the trof axis when we do get mid lat cyclones has been displaced to the east....another function of a Nina progressive pattern. I actually think my region is the screw zone this year and think parts of THIS region will fare a good deal better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 We'll have a -NAO, but we haven't been below average in -NAO in like 20 straight time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. And once again it appears the cold air will trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early this winter. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come in the future. Winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 WB latest extended GEFS….Merry Christmas. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 WB latest extended GEFS….Merry Christmas. Not once have the candy maps been right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 If you look at the GFS extended verbatim, the targeted period is after the fifteenth. There will be a five day milder stretch before that. Before the end of December, based on many of forecasts I have seen for December, I will be very disappointed if there is not a widespread significant event, 2-4; 3-6 inch event. But we have to be realistic here, no one is calling for above normal snowfall this year, and when was the last blizzard in December??? Getting even a few inches east of the mountains in December would be a big deal based on my 50 years of living in the DMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Some signs that maybe we can get the MJO out of the maritime continent toward phase 7 (at least) with some amplitude during the first week of December. After the probable warm start to December, that could force some colder conditions into the second week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Is the lightinthestorm guy not making a winter forecast this year? I haven't seen anything from him yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 52 minutes ago, George BM said: Is the lightinthestorm guy not making a winter forecast this year? I haven't seen anything from him yet. His tea leaves are stuck on a container ship 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 11 hours ago, mattie g said: Winter cancel? Months ago. It’s over. It’s been over. It will forever be over. Just let it go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 On 11/19/2021 at 8:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 37...keep the support coming 44 now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I predicted December would be +4 to +5 above average. You have to wait until …. January to gloat. Its November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 The other day I was going through photos and screen shots from last year and came across this. I saved it for some reason lol... This is today's Day 7 12z Euro vs a day 9 GFS run from last year. They're about a week apart. I don't know how well this verified last year...but fwiw....pretty similar. I wonder if we see a similar progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 JB is right again. Here comes winter and a bitter cold Dec. He is now saying signs point to a very cold Jan. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Look at that front that will pull a hurricane right up the coast. with that temp gradient it will deepen all the way into canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I don't know about that but these type of patterns must excite the Ottawa weenies - visions of another 200 cm winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 On 11/20/2021 at 7:44 AM, MN Transplant said: That is a sad OP run for getting into early Dec. Winter of 2011 - 2012 has entered the chat. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter of 2011 - 2012 has entered the chat. Was that run from before or after the JB stratwarm tweet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Was that run from before or after the JB stratwarm tweet? Before. I'm wishing for a climo Christmas, just like the ones we used to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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