Wonderdog Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Slowly but surely the cold air seems to be working its way toward the mid Atlantic region as winter gets closer. I like the look depicted on 12/13. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Wouldn't mind the 12z CMC for Wednesday... 1 to 3... but even an inch would be nice to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Wouldn't mind the 12z CMC for Wednesday... 1 to 3... but even an inch would be nice to see Just glad to be tracking something the first week of December. Would be great to get on the board the first 10 days of the month. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Wouldn't mind the 12z CMC for Wednesday... 1 to 3... but even an inch would be nice to see EURO is on board. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EURO is on board. And Ukie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Merry Torchcember 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Merry TorchcemberId rather have that than a conus zonal flow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. I’m quite pleased with the timing of the way everything is progressing. Getting our best pattern mid winter is always preferable. And I do fully expect the longwave pattern to evolve to a decent if not good one eventually. But a couple of the best nina analogs to right now, while the h5 pattern did improve significantly it was mostly wasted. I guess that’s somewhat expected in a Nina. When it’s cold it’s dry. So it’s likely still going to be a slog but I’ll take my chances getting our best looks between Xmas and March v now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m quite pleased with the timing of the way everything is progressing. Getting out best pattern mid winter is always preferable. And I do fully expect the longwave pattern to evolve to a decent if not good one eventually. But a couple of the best nina analogs to right now, while the h5 pattern did improve significantly it was mostly washed. I guess that’s somewhat expected in a Nina. When it’s cold it’s dry. So it’s likely still going to be a slog but I’ll take my chances getting out best looks between Xmas and March v now. I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it. It would be incredibly rare to have a longwave pattern set in this early and dominate the whole winter. Not impossible but that’s not usually how we get a total dreg winter. The more common way (like 2002 and 2020) is when we waste a decent pattern in December into early January then a dreg pattern sets in early January that knocks out our best climo period. It’s not impossible to see this last 3 months but that isn’t typical even in our bad winters. But getting a better pattern doesn’t guarantee us anything either. In a Nina we tend to waste some good patterns also. But this is one reason I favor a not so good but not necessarily a really awful winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 At long range, but the NAM looks like it could have been decent for Wednesday. Cuts off just as the snow starts falling. RGEM is still coming in but also looking like it'll bring snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 GFS has a big step in the right direction. Still is rain for mostly everyone south of the mason dixon line but moves the snow line central PA (12z) to the mason dixon line. Might be time to start a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Happy Hour GFS delivered some fun.. but.. we are on the borderline.. and we know what that usually means! Looking better north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Amped said: Merry Torchcember Better the 14th than the 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 GFS has a big step in the right direction. Still is rain for mostly everyone south of the mason dixon line but moves the snow line central PA (12z) to the mason dixon line. Might be time to start a thread?We’re close. Maybe 3 days out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS has a big step in the right direction. Still is rain for mostly everyone south of the mason dixon line but moves the snow line central PA (12z) to the mason dixon line. Might be time to start a thread? Solid step toward the other guidance but no way is it time to start a thread. Maybe happy hour Tuesday?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Solid step toward the other guidance but no way is it time to start a thread. Maybe happy hour Tuesday?? its time bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18z icon is nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 is it time to start worrying about supression lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, Ji said: is it time to start worrying about supression lol? I'm starting to feel good about living in the ocean. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: is it time to start worrying about supression lol? Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS has a big step in the right direction. Still is rain for mostly everyone south of the mason dixon line but moves the snow line central PA (12z) to the mason dixon line. Might be time to start a thread? What is the appeal of a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What is the appeal of a thread? basically its like calling the funeral home to make a reservation i 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What is the appeal of a thread? So y'all can stop cluttering this one with talk of a nuisance storm. We have important things like SPV elongation and MJO progression to discuss. The actual winter is on the line here!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: basically its like calling the funeral home to make a reservation i superstitious much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Pretty substantial run-to-run shift. 12z 18z 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Pretty substantial run-to-run shift. 12z 18zCompare that to 48 hours ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: So y'all can stop cluttering this one with talk of a nuisance storm. We have important things like SPV elongation and MJO progression to discuss. The actual winter is on the line here!! My bad. I’ll try to do better. I know it’s been a bad week for you after Ji told you that you live in the ocean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: superstitious much? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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