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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it is? It had better runs 1-2 days ago for us

I don't have your elephant memory but it's the best run of the past few cycles - seems the way we win here is more suppressed and somewhat strung out rather than a massive storm that lucks out, though I would like to see exactly how the UKIE pulled it off.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad.  Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent.  1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories.  Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances.  

Yeap. I've definitely noticed this looking back at records since 1950.

Fun fact: The three least snowy winters in DC: 1.) 1973 (T) 2.) 1998 (T) 3.) 2020 (0.6") were all warm enso years. 

IIRC even the Super La Nina of 1916-17 (ONI peaking around -2.3C) wasn't anywhere near as snowless as the winters you mentioned above.

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Andy in Geology asked me about rain chances for Wednesday for a sampling job, maybe I can start introducing the chance of snow for him:thumbsup:

Ha! The news of you being a weather nerd is spreading, everyone will ask you now! I had to send the boss man precip images of Louisiana the other week for his storm sampling event :lol: 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad.  Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent.  1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories.  Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances.  

What was last year?  That was the absolute shittiest winter of my entire life.  We need to avoid that from now on. BTW, homing in on property in Garret county or Grant county for the log cabin.  Just waiting on my wife's annual bonus before I get serious.  

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16 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What was last year?  That was the absolute shittiest winter of my entire life.  We need to avoid that from now on. BTW, homing in on property in Garret county or Grant county for the log cabin.  Just waiting on my wife's annual bonus before I get serious.  

the snow climo is so awful where you live that honestly you can get almost no snow in even a decent year wrt pattern.   

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EPS isnt awful imo 

scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room.

still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though.
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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the snow climo is so awful where you live that honestly you can get almost no snow in even a decent year wrt pattern.   

We are usually good for at least 12" per year around here. Pretty shitty but not a total shutout.  We're closing in on 4yrs without a significant snow event down here now.  

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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room.

still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though.

I was hoping there would be more hits on the eps but It wasn't awful.

 Most models give a modest stripe of snow through the area.

More NW less SE except for the Canadian that is better further south.

5 days out I'm happy to be able to be tracking something on the 3rd day of December. 

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I was hoping there would be more hits on the eps but It wasn't awful.

 Most models give a modest stripe of snow through the area.

More NW less SE except for the Canadian that is better further south.

5 days out I'm happy to be able to be tracking something on the 3rd day of December. 

This. maybe I will actually check in here this weekend :lol: 

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