IronTy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody mention soil temps yet? About the time that soil temps cool down enough to support accumulation the sun angle is higher and rising fast. We fail no matter what. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 the dr says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the dr says no its close though but looks like really strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 worst winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 for your posting. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: worst winter EURO is a step in the right direction. We can pretend that satisfies us and move on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is a step in the right direction. We can pretend that satisfies us and move on it is? It had better runs 1-2 days ago for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 06 UT Thursday morning. EURO is in UL, GFS UR, CMC LR, UKMET LL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 This euro run looks slower but it is also colder, at least going by the 540 thickness lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: it is? It had better runs 1-2 days ago for us I don't have your elephant memory but it's the best run of the past few cycles - seems the way we win here is more suppressed and somewhat strung out rather than a massive storm that lucks out, though I would like to see exactly how the UKIE pulled it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 ICON works for me. Thanks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: ICON works for me. Thanks. Andy in Geology asked me about rain chances for Wednesday for a sampling job, maybe I can start introducing the chance of snow for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad. Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent. 1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories. Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances. Yeap. I've definitely noticed this looking back at records since 1950. Fun fact: The three least snowy winters in DC: 1.) 1973 (T) 2.) 1998 (T) 3.) 2020 (0.6") were all warm enso years. IIRC even the Super La Nina of 1916-17 (ONI peaking around -2.3C) wasn't anywhere near as snowless as the winters you mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Andy in Geology asked me about rain chances for Wednesday for a sampling job, maybe I can start introducing the chance of snow for him Ha! The news of you being a weather nerd is spreading, everyone will ask you now! I had to send the boss man precip images of Louisiana the other week for his storm sampling event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad. Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent. 1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories. Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances. What was last year? That was the absolute shittiest winter of my entire life. We need to avoid that from now on. BTW, homing in on property in Garret county or Grant county for the log cabin. Just waiting on my wife's annual bonus before I get serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, IronTy said: What was last year? That was the absolute shittiest winter of my entire life. We need to avoid that from now on. BTW, homing in on property in Garret county or Grant county for the log cabin. Just waiting on my wife's annual bonus before I get serious. the snow climo is so awful where you live that honestly you can get almost no snow in even a decent year wrt pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 EPS isnt awful imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: EPS isnt awful imo post it please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 EPS isnt awful imo scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room. still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the snow climo is so awful where you live that honestly you can get almost no snow in even a decent year wrt pattern. We are usually good for at least 12" per year around here. Pretty shitty but not a total shutout. We're closing in on 4yrs without a significant snow event down here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Nina is the worst. Look at the dead STJ https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2021/12/03/1200Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-107.57,30.77,470 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 WB 12Z EPS…10- 20 percent chance… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: scrolled to the 06z run and thought it was a massive improvement snowmap wise — went back to 00z and it’s about the same if not slightly worse, though the 12z gives some more wiggle room. still, provides a fair bit of hope. Lot of models with a good stripe through the area, sorta feast-or-famine though. I was hoping there would be more hits on the eps but It wasn't awful. Most models give a modest stripe of snow through the area. More NW less SE except for the Canadian that is better further south. 5 days out I'm happy to be able to be tracking something on the 3rd day of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 i read on twitter that the models could shift back to cold for the last part of the 2nd half of December as MJO may move out of phase 6 now quicker than progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I was hoping there would be more hits on the eps but It wasn't awful. Most models give a modest stripe of snow through the area. More NW less SE except for the Canadian that is better further south. 5 days out I'm happy to be able to be tracking something on the 3rd day of December. This. maybe I will actually check in here this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I’m going to have to dust off my snow vocab early this year. Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: I was saving that for next week when we get NAM'd. But now its ruined NAM shows 1 to 2 piles of leaves. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM shows 1 to 2 piles of leaves. i have a whole yard full 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said: I didn't realize it was winter already. started 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM shows 1 to 2 piles of leaves. I just put the leaf shovel away for the season too. We could see drifts up to 3’ of leaves. I hope the stores don’t run out of milk, bread and those paper leaf bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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