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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'll stop posting individual shots of the GEFS after this, but it's fair to say that most members look very different than the 12z OP run --- generally weaker and more suppressed + earlier with the storm but wintrier as a result. Happens pretty rarely that there is such disagreement from what I've seen, so consider me invested. 

Similar with the Euro members, the main looked fine but a lot of the members had a much snowier solution than I expected. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro run is probably the most important run we will have all season. This winter looks like a end to end disaster with no relief

LOL.  We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities.  There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern.  But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together.  But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year.  It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL.  We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities.  There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern.  But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together.  But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year.  It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud.  

i dunno man....i dont remember tracking anything after the model meltdown of early January that basically told us winter was over. There wasnt even anywhere to Drive to see snow lol. Lets hope we get that blocking that is supposedly featured in this kind of QBO winter. Maybe we see a nice 2 week window like Jan 2000 lol

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30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

probably, but the UKIE and GEFS look decently wintry, as does (your favorite model) the ICON. Almost sounds like a consensus when you put it like that. Almost.

Ukie is real live actual snowstorm. Just like JB promised!!

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49 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dunno man....i dont remember tracking anything after the model meltdown of early January that basically told us winter was over. There wasnt even anywhere to Drive to see snow lol. Lets hope we get that blocking that is supposedly featured in this kind of QBO winter. Maybe we see a nice 2 week window like Jan 2000 lol

It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad.  Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent.  1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories.  Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances.  

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