SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'll stop posting individual shots of the GEFS after this, but it's fair to say that most members look very different than the 12z OP run --- generally weaker and more suppressed + earlier with the storm but wintrier as a result. Happens pretty rarely that there is such disagreement from what I've seen, so consider me invested. Similar with the Euro members, the main looked fine but a lot of the members had a much snowier solution than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 can I say it???? 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: can I say it???? the euro run is probably the most important run we will have all season. This winter looks like a end to end disaster with no relief 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 12z UKmet with a general 3-6 inches (most north and west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The icon and euro have been the most consistent with this so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, JH89 said: 12z UKmet with a general 3-6 inches (most north and west) Pretty substantial change from 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: can I say it???? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 *Insert its happening gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro run is probably the most important run we will have all season. This winter looks like a end to end disaster with no relief LOL. We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities. There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern. But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together. But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year. It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 CMC on crack, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro run is probably the most important run we will have all season. This winter looks like a end to end disaster with no relief So this winter is like your posting? 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: CMC on crack, right? probably, but the UKIE and GEFS look decently wintry, as does (your favorite model) the ICON. Almost sounds like a consensus when you put it like that. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: can I say it???? The "F" word? Fringed?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL. We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities. There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern. But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together. But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year. It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud. i dunno man....i dont remember tracking anything after the model meltdown of early January that basically told us winter was over. There wasnt even anywhere to Drive to see snow lol. Lets hope we get that blocking that is supposedly featured in this kind of QBO winter. Maybe we see a nice 2 week window like Jan 2000 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The "F" word? Fringed?? Right where he wants it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 If the Euro is good should we start a thread, or wait till tomorrow we are only 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: If the Euro is good should we start a thread, or wait till tomorrow we are only 5 days out. Slow down there, kid. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC on crack, right? Yes yes it is…it has no functioning gauges and is not safe for road travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Slow down there, kid. Radio show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Radio show! I'm seriously thinking about setting the ban filter to convert Radio Show to Randy is the G.O.A.T. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Jackpot right over my house. Oh yeah, this one is locked to verify 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Anybody mention soil temps yet? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If the Euro is good should we start a thread, or wait till tomorrow we are only 5 days out. Hell, eff NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: probably, but the UKIE and GEFS look decently wintry, as does (your favorite model) the ICON. Almost sounds like a consensus when you put it like that. Almost. Ukie is real live actual snowstorm. Just like JB promised!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Slow down there, kid. Ok. This lowered my blood pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody mention soil temps yet? I was saving that for next week when we get NAM'd. But now its ruined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody mention soil temps yet? They are roasting out here. Even though we just had a November with about 18 days going below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm seriously thinking about setting the ban filter to convert Radio Show to Randy is the G.O.A.T. You should do the same to "-PNA" or "La Nina". Or heck, even anything with Stormchaserchuck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody mention soil temps yet? Why, are we expecting another cicada emergence? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 49 minutes ago, Ji said: i dunno man....i dont remember tracking anything after the model meltdown of early January that basically told us winter was over. There wasnt even anywhere to Drive to see snow lol. Lets hope we get that blocking that is supposedly featured in this kind of QBO winter. Maybe we see a nice 2 week window like Jan 2000 lol It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad. Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent. 1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories. Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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