psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Today's edition of the Weeklies isn't awful at h5 for the last week of the month with a slightly -EPO/-NAO, with surface temps average to slightly below. The most impressive feature is still the +heights near the Aleutians. Soo Nina. Conceivably workable though if it were to somehow materialize. Not a torch for the holidays at least lol. That screams cold/dry warm/wet to me. We need the epo ridge to extend into western Canada without blocking. An epo ridge with no blocking tends to have storms cut to our west. We get cold behind them but I don’t see what would keep any amplified storm under us in that look. Could see ice perhaps in that setup. It’s forever out. What we need is either for that epo ridge that shift east or for the NAO to go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Nothing has outdone GFS ensembles or Euro from 2013. Those Euro weeklies have to have some other purpose. I like the warmth in northern Europe/Russia at Day 14-15, but it's starting to evolve wrong the last 1-2 runs. Sometimes lately the Northern Europe warmth has been +time correlated with SE ridge, instead of -NAO.That's why I ask if there's a 10mb warming signature with it (probably not, also the last 21 -NAO's have been -PNA or +EPO). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But you skipped the 144 panel. Why? I barely saw any snow… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Each run of the GFS makes me realize I need to get some grass seed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 32 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Each run of the GFS makes me realize I need to get some grass seed. Grass seed? I'm seeing more like tomato and pepper weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 49 minutes ago, IronTy said: Grass seed? I'm seeing more like tomato and pepper weather. just gonna plant palmetto trees and be done with it. If we are headed toward SC climo might as well go all in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: just gonna plant palmetto trees and be done with it. If we are headed toward SC climo might as well go all in. Gators in the Potomac, let’s go all in 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 That screams cold/dry warm/wet to me. We need the epo ridge to extend into western Canada without blocking. An epo ridge with no blocking tends to have storms cut to our west. We get cold behind them but I don’t see what would keep any amplified storm under us in that look. Could see ice perhaps in that setup. It’s forever out. What we need is either for that epo ridge that shift east or for the NAO to go negative Seems like we can't buy a real epo ridge anymore. We have had more luck lately with greenland ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 How did we waste this in January 2009? asking because this year kinda reminds me of Dec 2008 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Somehow we managed to totally waste a pretty good longwave pattern Jan and Feb that winter. Did get a storm in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Lastly I would gladly suffer the same fate for what came next…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Somehow we managed to totally waste a pretty good longwave pattern Jan and Feb that winter. Did get a storm in early March. tempwise, i feel like this has been a pretty classic start to the season (minus today). it's just been a dry pattern overall which i can tell just from riding the trails recently. it's gonna be interesting to see how this season plays out. i saw that denver is in a snow drought as well. not sure what that means for the mid-atlantic, but we're not alone. need a more active southern stream as just about everyone has said and less reliance on upper midwest clipper scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 WB latest Extended GFS….don’t worry we get flurries on Christmas Day… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lastly I would gladly suffer the same fate for what came next…. Mention of that storm out here can lead to personal injury lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Icon is suppressed for our potential storm for mid week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I plan on making significant adjustments to my likeability this season 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I plan on making significant adjustments to my likeability this season Nice! I can’t wait to see which way you go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Icon is suppressed for our potential storm for mid week.Oh geez. I guess winter is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon is suppressed for our potential storm for mid week. Oh geez. I guess winter is back Nah. The GFS says forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Nah. The GFS says forget about it.No lol...i meant looking at the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Nah. The GFS says forget about it. No lol...i meant looking at the icon True. I haven't looked at the icon in 9 months lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: GFS ensembles or Euro from 2013 What in the flying **** are talking about Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest Extended GFS….don’t worry we get flurries on Christmas Day… Solid Winchester snow hole. Has to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: How did we waste this in January 2009? asking because this year kinda reminds me of Dec 2008 so far. I remember that winter being incredibly frustrating. I think our snowfall up here was roughly average, but I remember it consisting of small snow-to-rain events. Just bad luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lastly I would gladly suffer the same fate for what came next…. So if we could sign up for the year that followed but it meant crappy winter this year, you sign up for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Well damn lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. * WHERE...Big Island Summits. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in effect. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause significant drifting of snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Next week is still intriguing on the ICON, EURO, and CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Next week is still intriguing on the ICON, EURO, and CMC It’s slipping away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Next week is still intriguing on the ICON, EURO, and CMC Shortwave is trending flatter which is good for us so it limits WAA ahead of it. GFS still hates it, but its moving flatter as well. Still doubt we thread that needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 almost the entire US is AN for temps heading into mid month...Much AN in some cases...wonder if that will verify. maybe the worm turns during Xmas week because I can't imagine the whole month broiling like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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