December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

For fear of going full @WinterWxLuvr, I'm at least heartened by seeing precip approach from the SW in the medium range. It might not be cold, but I'd rather not have to rely on scraps from systems coming out of the Upper Midwest. If we can keep getting moisture coming in from the SW, at some point we *have* to have some cold air for it to fall into.

Right?

RIGHT?!?!

Welcome

[WinterWxLuvr]

49 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me.

You just don’t know @Yeoman yet. One of the funniest fu——s here. 

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Is someone going to start the weather platitudes bingo card?  

Jumping in early with 

1. Rain in Southern Maryland

2. Someone mentions "climo"

3. Someone mentions suppression

4. The storm disappearing on the models for a day and the backlash of "it will never snow again"

5. Same people above return in droves as the models tease the storm again a run later.

6. The north trend happens which always seems to happen will surprise at least half the form

7. At least 5 weenie snowfall maps before day 3

8. Mt. PSU gets at least a foot of snow

[Chris78]

46 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Back to the possible threat next week. After looking at some of the Euro members some have a pretty good storm for us. Can't post because the file size limit but one had a widespread 6-10 inches of snow.

Your right. Just clicked through the individual members and there is more support for next Wednesday/Thursday time-frame than I expected.

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Your right. Just clicked through the individual members and there is more support for next Wednesday/Thursday time-frame than I expected.

For about 2.5 hours

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Ignore button works well

So does a sense of humor.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

No electronics during recess

Dude, you literally ruined my workout.  I've been laughing 5 minutes straight unable to do my next set.  Omg.  Lol.

[Weather Will]

 0Z WB Can. Ensembles, couple north and SOUTH. In addition to a nice hit or two….

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS is not good.

[mappy]

@Baltimorewx and I just discussed the GFS and Canadian, in person, together. Like the weather nerds that we are.

Not sure what LWX is seeing, the GFS is a lakes cutter (lol at backend snow)

Canadian is so different with a gulf low that pops overhead. 

weird. 

[North Balti Zen]

21 minutes ago, mappy said:

@Baltimorewx and I just discussed the GFS and Canadian, in person, together. Like the weather nerds that we are.

Not sure what LWX is seeing, the GFS is a lakes cutter (lol at backend snow)

Canadian is so different with a gulf low that pops overhead. 

weird. 

Gonna need a tiktok of that chat uploaded to twitter. 

[toolsheds]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

3. Someone mentions suppression

4. The storm disappearing on the models for a day and the backlash of "it will never snow again"

5. Same people above return in droves as the models tease the storm again a run later.

6. The north trend happens which always seems to happen will surprise at least half the form

7. At least 5 weenie snowfall maps before day 3

8. Mt. PSU gets at least a foot of snow

9. Sun angle is still too low. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Gonna need a tiktok of that chat uploaded to twitter. 

pffft i dont tiktok lol 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Dude, you literally ruined my workout.  I've been laughing 5 minutes straight unable to do my next set.  Omg.  Lol.

its too dry to work out 

[nw baltimore wx]

Euro looks interesting for next week.  It would be just like us to get a snowstorm right before we warm up into the 70's.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Euro looks interesting for next week.  It would be just like us to get a snowstorm right before we warm up into the 70's.

It’s close and would be a nice setup with a better airmass or later in the season. But this thing is going to bleed away from us. Just don’t see it happening.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s close and would be a nice setup with a better airmass or later in the season. But this thing is going to bleed away from us. Just don’t see it happening.

Very brief snow-to-rain, verbatim. Favored areas might get an inch before the deluge.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s close and would be a nice setup with a better airmass or later in the season. But this thing is going to bleed away from us. Just don’t see it happening.

This is exactly my thoughts also 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO….Nasty cold rain

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

pffft i dont tiktok lol 

That’s because h20 and I have made you an honorary old.

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO….Nasty cold rain

But you skipped the 144 panel. Why?

[WinterWxLuvr]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But this thing is going to bleed away from us.

Already happening. This run isn’t near as good as the previous run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS is not good.

Which is why it’s probably correct

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But you skipped the 144 panel. Why?

because it showed some snow. It looks like the euro lost that GL low ended up with a less snowy solution than 00z

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

because it showed some snow. It looks like the euro lost that GL low ended up with a less snowy solution than 00z

It’s almost all southern stream, which is much better for us. But the souther shortwave is also stronger, so more ridging and WAA ahead of it. That could work in Jan/Feb or with a good airmass but we just get fringed with the cold air from the earlier FROPA.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s almost all southern stream, which is much better for us. But the souther shortwave is also stronger, so more ridging and WAA ahead of it. That could work in Jan/Feb or with a good airmass but we just get fringed with the cold air from the earlier FROPA.

lets hope the euro bias for a strong s/w in the long range is in play. Sounds like a thread the needle way score snow which we are amazing at

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s almost all southern stream, which is much better for us. But the souther shortwave is also stronger, so more ridging and WAA ahead of it. That could work in Jan/Feb or with a good airmass but we just get fringed with the cold air from the earlier FROPA.

 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

lets hope the euro bias for a strong s/w in the long range is in play. Sounds like a thread the needle way score snow which we are amazing at

 The one way this could work would be if the guidance is wrong wrt the depth of the cold from that range.  That isn't an impossible error but it does go against usual bias at this range and has the time of year working against it and there are a ton of other ways this could trend all of which equal no snow.  So imo by far the most likely end result is more wet than white but I suppose its not completely hopeless.  

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 So imo by far the most likely end result is more wet than white but I suppose its not completely hopeless.  

Mid-Atlantic Niña winter: now only 99% hopeless!

[CAPE]

Today's edition of the Weeklies isn't awful at h5 for the last week of the month with a slightly -EPO/-NAO, and surface temps average to slightly below. The most impressive feature is still the +heights near the Aleutians. Soo Nina. Conceivably workable though if it were to somehow materialize. Not a torch for the holidays at least lol.

[Solution Man]

At least there is hope