WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: Hmmm... from this mornings AFD from LWX: High pressure briefly builds early in the afternoon on Tuesday ahead of the next system poised to impact the area Thursday and well into the rest of the work week. Latest guidance introduces a chance for some snow for much of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal passage. Should temperatures continue to trend colder and moisture availability becomes plentiful, we could see a bit more organization with this system. Though, skepticism still remains given the preceding conditions and subsidence overhead throughout the day on Tuesday, will continue to monitor this potential potent system midweek and into early next weekend Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening. Remember when it was on the Euro and we could actually believe in it for a little while because it was the best model and such? And when it was on the GFS we'd automatically toss it? Those were the days... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening. the other red flag is that GLL on the Euro....like bird crap on your car it always seems to show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Lol, I guess, as Ji says, most important model runs of our lives coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 hours ago, yoda said: High pressure briefly builds early in the afternoon on Tuesday ahead of the next system poised to impact the area Thursday and well into the rest of the work week. Latest guidance introduces a chance for some snow for much of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal passage. Should temperatures continue to trend colder and moisture availability becomes plentiful, we could see a bit more organization with this system. Though, skepticism still remains given the preceding conditions and subsidence overhead throughout the day on Tuesday, will continue to monitor this potential potent system midweek and into early next weekend we've got this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 They must be bored at LWX, though I like the weenie'ism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 44 minutes ago, Kay said: we've got this Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk. We all know that storms always trend colder and better for our area snow wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Expect the models to trend warmer regarding winter wx threat. I've never seen such a -PNA/+NAO produce something good. I say max high gets to 72. Sorry for being repetative. It does look at 500mb Day 13-15 a 10mb Stratosphere warming wants to develop, which would agree with my -NAO January analogs. Also, if January is to get cold it would usualy be cold around Christmas. Hey Chuck 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening. I've been lurking, watching this period. They are far, far apart and I actually agree with you. Yeah, we know the Euro is better, but with the GFS not even being in the ballpark...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, mattie g said: Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk. This possible event has it all: Great Lakes Low? Check! Perfectly timed mediocre airmass? Check! Early December? Check! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 For fear of going full @WinterWxLuvr, I'm at least heartened by seeing precip approach from the SW in the medium range. It might not be cold, but I'd rather not have to rely on scraps from systems coming out of the Upper Midwest. If we can keep getting moisture coming in from the SW, at some point we *have* to have some cold air for it to fall into. Right? RIGHT?!?! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 There is a better chance of randy posting nude photos on instagram then us seeing snow this December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 32 minutes ago, mattie g said: Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk. Temps are warm on Monday but Tuesdays highs are in the mid 30s to lower 40s north to south and by midnight most of the area is at or below freezing per the Euro. I'm sure the GFS is right though lol. Always go with the warmest and least snowiest model and you'll be right 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 What do you people mean this setup is a classic, great lake low transfers to off the coast to the southeast all time while giving us snow in a marginal airmass all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, Ji said: There is a better chance of randy posting nude photos on instagram then us seeing snow this December So you're saying there's a chance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ji said: There is a better chance of randy posting nude photos on instagram then us seeing snow this December You're going to have to use your imagination again - for both 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What do you people mean this setup is a classic, great lake low transfers to off the coast to the southeast all time while giving us snow in a marginal airmass all the time. No electronics during recess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: No electronics during recess What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me. Ignore button works well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me. Relax - just joking.. you're all good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Relax - just joking.. you're all good Oh sorry misread/interpreted that, have been spending too much time in off topic. Thought it was an attack on me posting here, sorry about responding so aggressively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Back to the possible threat next week. After looking at some of the Euro members some have a pretty good storm for us. Can't post because the file size limit but one had a widespread 6-10 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: There is a better chance of randy posting nude photos on instagram then us seeing snow this December Semi nude. You don't have to be jealous. Just put in the work. It's going to snow in December. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, Yeoman said: You're going to have to use your imagination again - for both He's referring to an instagram post where indeed I did post an artistic (ahem) photo. He'll return in a few after he's done with it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: This possible event has it all: Great Lakes Low? Check! Perfectly timed mediocre airmass? Check! Early December? Check! Seems pretty solid to me. Winter Storm Watches by Monday night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 That means storm mode threads and fauquier closed all next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: That means storm mode threads and fauquier closed all next week Let's not get mattie g all worked up. Move on to something less controversial, like vaccine/COVID talk. Thanks. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Is someone going to start the weather platitudes bingo card? Jumping in early with 1. Rain in Southern Maryland 2. Someone mentions "climo" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Radio show….I mean zoom show time! And you must wear pants @stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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