December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

oh my comment isn't a wait and see what happens. its simply expect nothing and be happy when you get something lol 

I mostly figured as much - my main point being is that you're not on here posting about how we are F'd because of La Nina and omg no snow - omg it can't snow anymore. You're just quietly resigned to it. Every last one of us is still peeking at the models every day even if we don't admit it  

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I mostly figured as much - my main point being is that you're not on here posting about how we are F'd because of La Nina and omg no snow - omg it can't snow anymore. You're just quietly resigned to it. Every last one of us is still peeking at the models every day even if we don't admit it  

yes, I have quietly accepted that this winter will probably suck. I warned everyone weeks ago that I would be a deb hahahaha. But I will try and keep my debness to myself for the sake of everyone else.

But yes, I am in daily model check mode now  

[H2O]

I’m just really here to make memes these days. I’ve learned that no amount of whining will make it snow in my barren, tropical wasteland. But I still read and try to see when promising times might come. But I don’t expect much so like mappy I just start at 0” and if something falls I enjoy it. 
 

The brief flurries this morning was effing cool. To see pingers flying beats 60s and sun 

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I mostly figured as much - my main point being is that you're not on here posting about how we are F'd because of La Nina and omg no snow - omg it can't snow anymore. You're just quietly resigned to it. Every last one of us is still peeking at the models every day even if we don't admit it  

We are F’d and it can’t snow anymore. Except this morning when it did for 5 min so I’m resigned to it

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

yes, I have quietly accepted that this winter will probably suck. I warned everyone weeks ago that I would be a deb hahahaha. But I will try and keep my debness to myself for the sake of everyone else.

But yes, I am in daily model check mode now  

I'm not quite into daily model checking yet...but perhaps close, especially if something appears on the horizon!  I definitely have been coming in here more lately, as I usually do as winter approaches.

[mappy]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

I'm not quite into daily model checking yet...but perhaps close, especially if something appears on the horizon!  I definitely have been coming in here more lately, as I usually do as winter approaches.

i never leave this place. lol 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, mappy said:

i never leave this place. lol 

A moderator's job is NEVER done, eh?!

(BTW, off-topic...but the other month I was able to see Galaxy Quest in a theater over in Rockville!!  Pretty cool!  They were showing classic films from the '90s or something and I happened to see that was one they were putting on!!)

[WxUSAF]

23 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Way out there so certainly will change, but the end of the GEFS run possibly shows things moving in our favor with the tropospheric vortex split and a -EPO ridge and western Russia/Scandinavian ridge pushing poleward. That -EPO is also nosing onto the west coast, although not enough. 
 

Until then things look kinda blah, although getting stormier so at least we can keep and eye out for needle threading. Dec 5-9 period looks active with some cold air nearby.

Well, model guidance has not been friendly of late. GEFS keeps bouncing around with the strength of the two primary NHEM ridges in the WPO domain and western Russia/Scandinavia. 12z has them fairly flat. That leads to a strong trop PV that is coupled to a strong strat PV…++AO. So we torch. No sign of JB’s promised snowstorms or big strat warming. I guess the Dec 6-10 window isn’t totally closed for something, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This looks like a shut the blinds situation for awhile I think, these sort of patterns take awhile to breakdown, particularly when it is supported by SST and subseasonal patterns like MJO.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, model guidance has not been friendly of late. GEFS keeps bouncing around with the strength of the two primary NHEM ridges in the WPO domain and western Russia/Scandinavia. 12z has them fairly flat. That leads to a strong trop PV that is coupled to a strong strat PV…++AO. So we torch. No sign of JB’s promised snowstorms or big strat warming. I guess the Dec 6-10 window isn’t totally closed for something, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This looks like a shut the blinds situation for awhile I think, these sort of patterns take awhile to breakdown, particularly when it is supported by SST and subseasonal patterns like MJO.

CWG sure seems strong on punting all of DEC.  But that seems to be the norm the last few years.  Maybe something will change since it was a better look just a few days ago.  I do miss some people on Twitter that would sometimes take the time to explain the overall pattern drivers and what might come down the pike.  Explaining WHY the models want to torch now in DEC would be good to know other than model X says it will.  Like what is making the trop stay in the state it is. What can cause transient shots of warm/cold?  Shit like that.

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, H2O said:

CWG sure seems strong on punting all of DEC.  But that seems to be the norm the last few years.  Maybe something will change since it was a better look just a few days ago.  I do miss some people on Twitter that would sometimes take the time to explain the overall pattern drivers and what might come down the pike.  Explaining WHY the models want to torch now in DEC would be good to know other than model X says it will.  Like what is making the trop stay in the state it is. What can cause transient shots of warm/cold?  Shit like that.

The advertised MJO pulse into phases 7-8 looks to largely peter out and just make it into Phase 7 at low amplitude. We had a weak strat vortex to start the season in October and early November, but it has quickly consolidated and there’s fairly weak poleward and upward wave forcing to disrupt it now and forecast. Combine that with the Niña/PDO base state and there’s not a lot available to dislodge cold out of NW Canada. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Next week is close. No time to throw in the towel.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, model guidance has not been friendly of late. GEFS keeps bouncing around with the strength of the two primary NHEM ridges in the WPO domain and western Russia/Scandinavia. 12z has them fairly flat. That leads to a strong trop PV that is coupled to a strong strat PV…++AO. So we torch. No sign of JB’s promised snowstorms or big strat warming. I guess the Dec 6-10 window isn’t totally closed for something, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This looks like a shut the blinds situation for awhile I think, these sort of patterns take awhile to breakdown, particularly when it is supported by SST and subseasonal patterns like MJO.

Been watching the transition storm to the crud pattern Dec 7ish give or take a day. That one has a chance to produce a little something before the pattern deteriorates into +panic/++whining regime thereafter. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The advertised MJO pulse into phases 7-8 looks to largely peter out and just make it into Phase 7 at low amplitude. We had a weak strat vortex to start the season in October and early November, but it has quickly consolidated and there’s fairly weak poleward and upward wave forcing to disrupt it now and forecast. Combine that with the Niña/PDO base state and there’s not a lot available to dislodge cold out of NW Canada. 

It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out.

 

The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out.

 

The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.

January 85, 96, 00 and 11 were cold/snowy. It happens. What’s true is in really crappy Nina’s with a flat Pac ridge when it typically torches during mid winter our best chances are early before the winter pattern sets in and late as wavelengths shorten. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out.

 

The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.

On the MA coastal plain we should be happy to see some decent Fall weather in December most years. More so lately and likely going forward.

If its gonna be mild I am hoping for continued dry overall. Perfect for hiking and outdoor projects with no sweating and no bugs.

[IronTy]

I'm starting to run out of youthful years, if it's ever going to snow again I need it to be soon or else I'll be too old to enjoy it.  

[CAPE]

This happens every year when December looks like a fail on the means, as if it is surprising or something. It is normal here. Climo window for snow (for the majority in this region) is mid Jan through early March. Yes it is brief. We ain't Maine.

Stop falling in love with the idea of low sun angle pre Xmas snow. 

[Superstorm]

This happens every year when December looks like a fail on the means, as if it is surprising or something. It is normal here. Climo window for snow (for the majority in this region) is mid Jan through early March. Yes it is brief. We ain't Maine.
Stop falling in love with the idea of low sun angle pre Xmas snow. 

Well put.

I do like a December storm to kick it off, but we have had many great years with snow starting in late January.


.

[poolz1]

The one consistent theme in the LR is the Aleutian ridge and the Barents/Kara Sea ridge.  Both are poised to squeeze the PV into NA if tropical forcing can cooperate for a time and allow the PAC ridge to go poleward. Wishful thinking? Absolutely! 

I will remain optimistic and hopeful...why? Because if it doesn't snow life will still go on. Though,  I will admit this place can beat you down with negativity...

[Ji]

This happens every year when December looks like a fail on the means, as if it is surprising or something. It is normal here. Climo window for snow (for the majority in this region) is mid Jan through early March. Yes it is brief. We ain't Maine.
Stop falling in love with the idea of low sun angle pre Xmas snow. 

Last year was a great december. Snow and ice for days

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Last year was a great december. Snow and ice for days

I don't really care what happened in your yard, and how is this relevant to December snow climo for most of this subforum?

[StormchaserChuck!]

These strong -PNA's/+NAO overperform, we will be in the 60s consistently easy. Maybe 70+

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

These strong -PNA's/+NAO overperform, we will be in the 60s consistently easy. 

Yay!!

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

I don't really care what happened in your yard, and how is this relevant to December snow climo for most of this subforum?

I don't know if Ji was trying to hint at this or just making an IMBY post...but there is some relevance to what happens in his area and mine to the prospects for the rest of this forum.  Something I noticed when I did my snowfall data study years ago was that while its very true that the DC-Baltimore area has quite a few winters where there is virtually no snow heading into January or even February and then they turn it around...that is much less true up here.  And to make that worse...most of the examples where there was no significant snow up here before mid December were warm enso years where that is common...and some of those did turn it around.  But when you look at enso cold or neutral years without any meaningful snowfall up here before mid December...it gets really ugly!  

 

On top of that using raw numbers from 1950 is kinda misleading...because our average snowfall is in decline.  A 12" winter in 1955 equates to like a 9" winter now.  The last 5 cold or neutral enso years where it didn't snow much up here before Xmas ended up being really awful winters.  All 5 were significantly below average snowfall, and 4 of the 5 were single digits at BWI.  

What I took away from that years ago was that its not that big of a deal if DC and Baltimore and the immediate metro areas don't get much snow early in the season...it is a really bad sign when the entire region including the mountains and northern zones...are snowless early in the season.  The exception is el nino years where they are notoriously warm until January and then can flip.  But other seasons do tend to "tip" their hand early on.  At least by the numbers...

So as not to crush all hope there was one example of a nina year that started awful up here and still ended up ok...but its one example out of many...I would rather not be praying for that kind of wildly rare type of recovery.  

[Scraff]

Some hope for next week?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't know if Ji was trying to hint at this or just making an IMBY post...but there is some relevance to what happens in his area and mine to the prospects for the rest of this forum.  Something I noticed when I did my snowfall data study years ago was that while its very true that the DC-Baltimore area has quite a few winters where there is virtually no snow heading into January or even February and then they turn it around...that is much less true up here.  And to make that worse...most of the examples where there was no significant snow up here before mid December were warm enso years where that is common...and some of those did turn it around.  But when you look at enso cold or neutral years without any meaningful snowfall up here before mid December...it gets really ugly!  

 

On top of that using raw numbers from 1950 is kinda misleading...because our average snowfall is in decline.  A 12" winter in 1955 equates to like a 9" winter now.  The last 5 cold or neutral enso years where it didn't snow much up here before Xmas ended up being really awful winters.  All 5 were significantly below average snowfall, and 4 of the 5 were single digits at BWI.  

What I took away from that years ago was that its not that big of a deal if DC and Baltimore and the immediate metro areas don't get much snow early in the season...it is a really bad sign when the entire region including the mountains and northern zones...are snowless early in the season.  The exception is el nino years where they are notoriously warm until January and then can flip.  But other seasons do tend to "tip" their hand early on.  At least by the numbers...

So as not to crush all hope there was one example of a nina year that started awful up here and still ended up ok...but its one example out of many...I would rather not be praying for that kind of wildly rare type of recovery.  

He had no point. Just him barging in, not reading for context, and saying- see look look it does snow in December! Like no shit. We all had 20" back in Dec 2009. We practically Aomori.

10 days from now, if we are having sunny days with temps in the 50s and 60s with no pattern change in sight, he will be in here melting down and complaining that the models won't even give us digital snow.

[Ji]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

I don't really care what happened in your yard, and how is this relevant to December snow climo for most of this subforum?

most of the subforum got a good winter storm around Dec 15 last year...not my fault you live in the ocean

[87storms]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

This happens every year when December looks like a fail on the means, as if it is surprising or something. It is normal here. Climo window for snow (for the majority in this region) is mid Jan through early March. Yes it is brief. We ain't Maine.

Stop falling in love with the idea of low sun angle pre Xmas snow. 

i can't say with certainty, but we usually get at least some minor events by mid december (especially in our better snow years)...even if it's a mix in the cities and chase-able snow in the north and west counties.  i think i've seen like 2 snowflakes hit my windshield so far.  that's mostly due to this predominantly drier pattern because we've had some chilly weather around.  i think a pattern flip is needed.  this one is way too NS dominant.

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He had no point. Just him barging in, not reading for context, and saying- see look look it does snow in December! Like no shit. We all had 20" back in Dec 2009. We practically Aomori.

10 days from now, if we are having sunny days with temps in the 50s and 60s with no pattern change in sight, he will be in here melting down and complaining that the models won't even give us digital snow.

I would never punt a winter month...especially when we only get 4 months a year where it can snow. I am happy with anything we can get in December. We have actually done better in the Dec 5-15 window then the Dec 25-31 in the past 10 years and i have no idea why lol

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

These strong -PNA's/+NAO overperform, we will be in the 60s consistently easy. Maybe 70+