December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let see what the EURO ensembles show, but I would love to see a better sign of a major pattern change within the next 2 weeks.  There was never a guarantee of a storm, but it would be nice to get a window of opportunity in January.  I don’t see it yet.

So on December 19th you see no window of opportunity in January?

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let see what the EURO ensembles show, but I would love to see a better sign of a major pattern change within the next 2 weeks.  There was never a guarantee of a storm, but it would be nice to get a window of opportunity in January.  I don’t see it yet.

There were signs 2 weeks ago…pretty solid ones too…and here we are…no reason to think this is different no matter what they show outside 5 days.  

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because you don’t want to see it.  Analog based projections on where we are now (mjo phase 6/7 in Dec with a -NAO) roll forward into a cold January. Btw since some are worried about how far the mjo progresses a phase 7 in a January Nina is a pretty good look anyways.  Seversl consecutive runs the last 48 hours all 3 major ensembles showed a great look in early Jan. But you focused on the data that supported your fear. Now the gefs had a bad run and you are focusing on that. Even if it showed the same thing it did yesterday would it matter?  It didn’t yesterday!  

I want to see it, just don’t see solid evidence in the models yet that it is going to happen.  I guess we will know in a couple of weeks.  Hopefully, we will have something to track by the end of the NY’s weekend.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

Yesterday you were equally pessimistic when every long range model was showing a favorable pattern. 

[NorthArlington101]

First event of the season will probably be stumbled into 4 days out. Couldn’t care less about the pattern for January at this moment.

[Ji]

Yesterday you were equally pessimistic when every long range model was showing a favorable pattern. 

No wonder bob chill left

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yesterday you were equally pessimistic when every long range model was showing a favorable pattern. 

No wonder bob chill left

It’s not just bob chill. Go back and read some of the threads from 10 years ago and the number of really high quality posters in a day. We have about 1/3 now, if that. And I know change is normal but we aren’t replacing the people that leave. I don’t see any new posters of the same quality taking over. It’s troubling. I don’t know exactly why that is but it’s troubling. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

First event of the season will probably be stumbled into 4 days out. Couldn’t care less about the pattern for January at this moment.

We(collectively) tend to pay too much attention to the advertised LR pattern/teleconnections when we are currently in a shutout pattern, esp when it offers some promise of better times. Can't get to focused on the details when we are looking at guidance 10+ days out.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s not just bob chill. Go back and read some of the threads from 10 years ago and the number of really high quality posters in a day. We have about 1/3 now, if that. And I know change is normal but we aren’t replacing the people that leave. I don’t see any new posters of the same quality taking over. It’s troubling. I don’t know exactly why that is but it’s troubling. 

It's probably a combination of factors. Consider that 10 years ago everyone was high on the miracle of 2009-2010. Snow weenie hearts were replenished and fresh and moods were higher overall. 

I think the widespread dissemination of weather models and data is helping AND hurting. Of course, I'll never argue to restrict data from the public - but social media has allowed people who have no business throwing their two cents in the ability to spread their opinions and "analyses" far and wide with very little effort. The issue then becomes that anybody who has a mild/armchair interest in weather can very quickly become "the go-to person" in their friend group/family group. In the 2000s - to get some credibility - you had to do so without the use of easy-to-access snow maps etc - you actually had to have a brain. Twitter and Facebook have done a lot of harm to this field. 

Places like TT, WeatherBell, Pivotal etc now make it so easy for any average Joe to go around flaunting their snow maps and pretending to be somebody worth listening to. It's probably incredible frustrating for the people with actual weather knowledge to have to scream at the top of their lungs to try (unsuccessfully) to drown out the wannabe people. 

I encourage anybody who is interested to go into STEM...but weenie proliferation is a real thing - and it doesn't help the field. 

[CAPE]

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

[North Balti Zen]

It’s good to have hope for impossible things, I suppose, Cape…

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

I was thinking EXACTLY what you just said then decided not to even post. Tired of wasting my time. 

[Heisy]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's probably a combination of factors. Consider that 10 years ago everyone was high on the miracle of 2009-2010. Snow weenie hearts were replenished and fresh and moods were higher overall. 

I think the widespread dissemination of weather models and data is helping AND hurting. Of course, I'll never argue to restrict data from the public - but social media has allowed people who have no business throwing their two cents in the ability to spread their opinions and "analyses" far and wide with very little effort. The issue then becomes that anybody who has a mild/armchair interest in weather can very quickly become "the go-to person" in their friend group/family group. In the 2000s - to get some credibility - you had to do so without the use of easy-to-access snow maps etc - you actually had to have a brain. Twitter and Facebook have done a lot of harm to this field. 

Places like TT, WeatherBell, Pivotal etc now make it so easy for any average Joe to go around flaunting their snow maps and pretending to be somebody worth listening to. It's probably incredible frustrating for the people with actual weather knowledge to have to scream at the top of their lungs to try (unsuccessfully) to drown out the wannabe people. 

I encourage anybody who is interested to go into STEM...but weenie proliferation is a real thing - and it doesn't help the field. 

Ageed. I've been on in the wx community since the wright weather days, 20 years. Amazing how time flies. Back then there wasn't many places to post. Now, every one is scattered. These days we have twitter and each region has their own forum separate from amwx. Things have changed. Hell, I still remember the days where each model suite got it's own thread. Ji & Nor giving us updates on the March 2001 blizzard when the 12z euro came out at 7pm. Sweet, sweet memories. 

All that being said, if a blockbuster like 2016 gets within 3-4 days this place will be buzzing. 

As for current wx, just need to be patient. Jan 1-14 could produce with a little luck. Pattern could be a lot worst  

[IronTy]

This is hardly something unique to this board.  Message boards in general have been dying for over a decade.  People have moved on to social media.  Eventually this place will dry up like the rest of them.  Just enjoy it while it lasts.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This is hardly something unique to this board.  Message boards in general have been dying for over a decade.  People have moved on to social media.  Eventually this place will dry up like the rest of them.  Just enjoy it while it lasts.  

That’s sad because social media you can’t have the same level of discourse as here. Imo social media is better if your goal is just to blast your own content out there but worse for meaningful dialogue, collaboration and community. 

[NorthArlington101]

This is hardly something unique to this board.  Message boards in general have been dying for over a decade.  People have moved on to social media.  Eventually this place will dry up like the rest of them.  Just enjoy it while it lasts.  

Discord is where I’m hoping people move once things eventually collapse (which I hope isn’t for a long time). It’s a nice blend between social media and a forum.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s sad because social media you can’t have the same level of discourse as here. Imo social media is better if your goal is just to blast your own content out there but worse for meaningful dialogue, collaboration and community. 

I agree, it sucks.  This format is much better for actual content sharing but that isn't the way everybody is moving.  This is actually the last of about a dozen boards I'm a member of including motorcycling, bodybuilding, financial, energy, etc that hasnt died yet. Once it drops below a critical mass threshold and there aren't enough people to sustain worthwhile posting then it'll wipe out too.  

 

This is why it is particularly important to welcome new people to post even if they aren't weather experts. Otherwise it just ends up as an echo chamber for a few posters for a little while before collapsing.  You can at least put it off by getting a lot of newbs onsite wanting to learn.  

[StormchaserChuck!]

We haven't had dry snow in a long time that lasts.. the last few years all snow totals are gone in 3 days. I didn't like 09-10 much for this reason too. -PNA -NAO is better in this regard 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Weak, we will have above average temps if this verifies

 

(They might be over doing the -PNA because of how blosterous it has been.) 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I posted this in the NYC subforum yesterday.. when Dec1- Jan3 -PNA dominates, is most dominant index, what the rest of the Winter brings, 20 analogs over 3-months since 1948. 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I posted this in the NYC subforum yesterday.. when Dec1- Jan3 -PNA dominates, is most dominant index, what the rest of the Winter brings, 20 analogs over 3-months since 1948. 

 

Problem with that is you’re taking only one factor in isolation. There are radically different results mixed in there. What you’re seeing is that years with a super -PDO AND a pos AO/NAO the pattern is such a torch it outduels the -pdo/-AO years in the means. I have no doubts if the AO flips back positive for the remainder of winter we are screwed. I’ve said many times we NEED NAO help in a Nina. But if, big if, we get the NAO to be cooperative at times that changes the metric and what years in that large sample are most relevant. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I agree, it sucks.  This format is much better for actual content sharing but that isn't the way everybody is moving.  This is actually the last of about a dozen boards I'm a member of including motorcycling, bodybuilding, financial, energy, etc that hasnt died yet. Once it drops below a critical mass threshold and there aren't enough people to sustain worthwhile posting then it'll wipe out too.  

 

This is why it is particularly important to welcome new people to post even if they aren't weather experts. Otherwise it just ends up as an echo chamber for a few posters for a little while before collapsing.  You can at least put it off by getting a lot of newbs onsite wanting to learn.  

The Southeastern forum has been essentially dead for the last two years at least, which is why I hang out here.  I've learned a lot here, and I hate to see it declining as well.  I wish I had more to offer.  I have also come to realize that it takes a LOT of work to learn enough for one to make meaningful contribution, so my respect for all those that do.

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

This is hardly something unique to this board.  Message boards in general have been dying for over a decade.  People have moved on to social media.  Eventually this place will dry up like the rest of them.  Just enjoy it while it lasts.  

I hope not because this place and a sport board where I follow my (currently disastrous) football team are two of my favorite places. I tried social media like FB years ago and it just didn't click with me.  I mostly just read on here as I don't have the expertise but it's been a fun place over so many years. 

Some memorable quotes:  a few days before the Dec. 2009 storm someone posted "Welp time for the Euro to squeeze one off into the punchbowl" and another poster said "If that happens I'll intentionally roll my car on I-70"  

And how about the thread "The Hoffman cometh"

So many good times on here!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

 Places like TT, WeatherBell, Pivotal etc now make it so easy for any average Joe to go around flaunting their snow maps and pretending to be somebody worth listening to.

For some reason, I read this as JB!!! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

To me that’s a look that can shoot waves out of the sw into a cold east, CAD setups as well as the occasional (fictional lol) clipper.

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem with that is you’re taking only one factor in isolation. There are radically different results mixed in there. What you’re seeing is that years with a super -PDO AND a pos AO/NAO the pattern is such a torch it outduels the -pdo/-AO years in the means. I have no doubts if the AO flips back positive for the remainder of winter we are screwed. I’ve said many times we NEED NAO help in a Nina. But if, big if, we get the NAO to be cooperative at times that changes the metric and what years in that large sample are most relevant. 

Yeah, a +100dm/-70dm signal of 20 analogs(/75) over a 3-month period is really strong. (only 3/90 days of the sampleset is in the roll forward)

[Eskimo Joe]

Curious to know, since I'm not good with historic analogs, what was the winter of 1940-41 like for DC and Baltimore?

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not just bob chill. Go back and read some of the threads from 10 years ago and the number of really high quality posters in a day. We have about 1/3 now, if that. And I know change is normal but we aren’t replacing the people that leave. I don’t see any new posters of the same quality taking over. It’s troubling. I don’t know exactly why that is but it’s troubling. 

You mean posting 840Hr GFS clown maps hasn't lured him back? He probably just came to his senses and realized he can do much more with his life than spending his day analyzing 10 day model runs that flip 180 degrees every 12 hours.. I'm sure he'll be back if something trackable materializes within a realistic timeframe.

What's troubling is the lack of any winter weather to make it worthwhile for decent posters to contribute. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Curious to know, since I'm not good with historic analogs, what was the winter of 1940-41 like for DC and Baltimore?

Kinda average to a little above up here...23.1"...and 12 of that came in March, lol

[CAPE]

18z GEFS is back to looking more like the EPS in the EPO domain for early Jan.