Weather Will Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 WB GEFS continues to push back the timing and intensity of the advertised cold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 WB 0Z EURO control has no cold air in sight. May have to start facing reality here… 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately. And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again. Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Actually, the 6z GFS ensembles have a much stronger -NAO though.. strongest 10-15D run so far. We have +300dm as an ensemble mean over the Baffin Island at 384hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 It's a really big -PNA reloading again on Jan 3rd, very strong. How did we do these years. There's actually nothing like Dec 2010 for January Before 1-25-2000 (one of my favorite storms all time), we had a really strong -NAO, +450average for 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 12:48 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, the 6z GFS ensembles have a much stronger -NAO though.. strongest 10-15D run so far. We have +300dm as an ensemble mean over the Baffin Island at 384hr. Expand Eps has the - NAO and -AO get stronger as the month goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 12:42 PM, Weather Will said: Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately. And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again. Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days. Expand I definitely hear what you are saying. But, the pattern is changing right on top of us. It was just 2 weeks ago or so that people were noting how "all the wrong colors are in all the wrong places." The ball of blue over AK and the all of the HLB locations. There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up. We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium. Personally, just a little help out west would be best. If we get a full on ++PNA that links up over the top the PV will be sitting over Lake Erie....especially with the strength of the west based block. A slow transition that ebbs and flows would be nice. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 12:28 PM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO control has no cold air in sight. May have to start facing reality here… Expand For what possible reason is it worth looking at the ensemble control at 240+ hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Because of the need to inflict panic on others to share one’s misery. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Blame Tony Pann. Every time he mentions a snow chance on his social media pages (which has been like 10 times already) they immediately disappear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 1:07 PM, poolz1 said: There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up. We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Plenty of big snow ahead, except for extreme SE VA. I should have made my contest numbers higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I borrowed this from JB. Dec 1984, 1993, 2013 had had very warm temps and this is the January that followed. Lots of big snow coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 1:59 PM, Baltimorewx said: Blame Tony Pann. Every time he mentions a snow chance on his social media pages (which has been like 10 times already) they immediately disappear. Expand Snow Train baby! Hope you're doing ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Lol Jan 1994 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 WB 6Z EPS, verbatim dry seasonably cool week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 By now we've accumulated at least 3 ft of digital snow even in the shittiest of winters.. have we even gotten an inch yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Another perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 12:42 PM, Weather Will said: Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately. And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again. Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days. Expand Isn't that the sentiment that we always have to be reminded of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 12:48 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, the 6z GFS ensembles have a much stronger -NAO though.. strongest 10-15D run so far. We have +300dm as an ensemble mean over the Baffin Island at 384hr. Expand Problem is, it hooks up with the SER on several ens members and forms a mild full lat ridge in the East US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 2:16 PM, ldub23 said: I borrowed this from JB. Dec 1984, 1993, 2013 had had very warm temps and this is the January that followed. Lots of big snow coming. Expand 1993-94 winter was a mess! Using up 3 weeks of leave by March due to impassible roads (ice) was no fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 5:18 PM, Stormfly said: 1993-94 winter was a mess! Using up 3 weeks of leave by March due to impassible roads (ice) was no fun! Expand This winter will be a snowy mess starting in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 5:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Problem is, it hooks up with the SER on several ens members and forms a mild full lat ridge in the East US. Expand A repeat of October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Euro's got 60s on Christmas. Record is 72 at DCA. Let's burn it down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Mid week storm took a pretty big jump in the right direction on the upper level maps per 12zEuro. Still 96 hours to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 6:44 PM, MN Transplant said: Euro's got 60s on Christmas. Record is 72 at DCA. Let's burn it down. Expand You've gotta be kidding me, smh Feels like we can't get a dang cold Christmas anymore! (although last year at least it got cold behind that front) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 6:46 PM, peribonca said: Mid week storm took a pretty big jump in the right direction on the upper level maps per 12zEuro. Still 96 hours to go... Expand Problem is I’m not sure if it matters a ton…the low up in Canada is a problem if I’m not mistaken. It’s not really cold enough anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just remember what models were showing for Christmas just a couple of days ago. Let that guide you from this point forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 On 12/18/2021 at 6:30 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: A repeat of October. Expand Exactly. And probably wouldn't have raised a red flag on the LR ens had we not repeated this pattern already. Keep those two ul ridges separate entities and we probably strike gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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