BristowWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 3 pink 500mb anomaly peaks, 18z GFS ensemble mean: That's 582dm ridge in northern England, to start. 2nd image hits almost+600dm as an ensemble mean average, that's top 10-15 all time. This is good stuff. Maybe Jan produces. But what’s in front of us now through the end of Dec is largely AN as it looks now. On the GEFS our entire region barely gets below freezing even at night for the next 2.5 weeks. We need to get through that then who knows. psu is right why beat ourselves up. We have no control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Since 1948, PNA <-1 in Dec, with -NAO, 7 years, seems to shift energy to the NAO later, we'll see. (Of course, you know much of this December was +NAO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Icon made a big jump north with next Tuesday. Compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 GFS looks to be coming North this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS looks to be coming North this time Yes. Just north of Orlando. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Scraff said: Yes. Just north of Orlando. Lol….this is insane, gives us something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas . Sure looks like the GFS is trying to bring that storm north, somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas . The blocks gonna try to work its magic and there are hints that even though that first stj wave misses the connection to the NS the next NS SW might pull some sort of partial phase with the leftover stj energy. But even if all that happens then we might still end up left out if the cold retreats too much or the track isn’t perfect. It’s not no hope. But it’s complicated and we don’t do complicated usually so I tend to bet against it. Every once in a while these crazy setups do work out. Someone with more faith than me should put in a prayer for a Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Sure looks like the GFS is trying to bring that storm north, somewhat. the op run modeled Torchmas seems to be cooling off...don't need snow but don't want 70 either...in case Santa is listening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The blocks gonna try to work its magic and there are hints that even though that first stj wave misses the connection to the NS the next NS SW might pull some sort of partial phase with the leftover stj energy. But even if all that happens then we might still end up left out if the cold retreats too much or the track isn’t perfect. It’s not no hope. But it’s complicated and we don’t do complicated usually so I tend to bet against it. Every once in a while these crazy setups do work out. Someone with more faith than me should put in a prayer for a Christmas miracle. Latest runs of the GEFS are hinting at that for later next week. Odds would favor areas well north of here. Even when the GFS/GEFS was involving the SS wave with the previous digging piece of NS energy(which 'disappeared') for earlier next week, it looked to be largely too late for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Another windy Christmas eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I think I jinxed it by asking about warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think I jinxed it by asking about warnings high wind warnings maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 32 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: high wind warnings maybe... 850 winds on the 12z GFS would certainly argue for advisory criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: high wind warnings maybe... There’s nothing worse, literally. Sun, warm, no snow, drought, wet, earthquake, etc. Wind sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 We can't have nice things. We can have wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: We can't have nice things. We can have wind. we should have a "time to break wind" party 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Rarely do high wind warnings verify here. Even the advisories are fringed. Last legit high impact wind event for us was March 02, 2018. Boy what a mess that was! Last Christmas eve we had legit tropical storm conditions for about 30 minutes. I remember chasing 96 gallon trash bins down the lane after dinner. Could not believe the sound of the rain beating on the door. Last time I heard that was Irene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Rarely do high wind warnings verify here. Even the advisories are fringed. Last legit high impact wind event for us was March 02, 2018. Boy what a mess that was! Last Christmas eve we had legit tropical storm conditions for about 30 minutes. I remember chasing 96 gallon trash bins down the lane after dinner. Could not believe the sound of the rain beating on the door. Last time I heard that was Irene! There were more power outages from that even in Maryland than from Hurricane Sandy. Had that wind occurred during a full canopy, we would've probably rivaled the 2012 derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There’s nothing worse, literally. Sun, warm, no snow, drought, wet, earthquake, etc. Wind sucks At least we rarely get the wind Denver is getting today..up to 80mph gusts in the zone forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: There were more power outages from that even in Maryland than from Hurricane Sandy. Had that wind occurred during a full canopy, we would've probably rivaled the 2012 derecho. The Derecho didn't affect us at all. We were on the northern fringe. Which was fine by me! Northern VA OTOH was a mess indeed. Sandy also brought wind but we didn't lose power aside from some flickers. Total number of outages in BGE territory similar to the Jan 26, 2011 "Carmageddon" event. (250K) Irene and Isabel seem to be the highest (outage) events with over 700K outages. March 2018 was a very long event too. Fortunately we just don't get widespread winds with full tree canopy. Even so there is too much vegetation impingement in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Cool discussion about past events in this thread. So...how are we feeling about what the GEFS is laying down and sticking with at 500 starting a couple days before Christmas? What I like is that the can isn't getting kicked on this and that we're seeing a chance that some of that cold in Canada bleeds in our direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Cool discussion about past events in this thread. So...how are we feeling about what the GEFS is laying down and sticking with at 500 starting a couple days before Christmas? What I like is that the can isn't getting kicked on this and that we're seeing a chance that some of that cold in Canada bleeds in our direction. JB is quoting that it's the coldest 45 day in the past 20yrs if the GEFS is to be believed. I have to believe some major cold is coming just to balance out the crazy warmth recently. It seems difficult to me to run the table on warmth like this all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: At least we rarely get the wind Denver is getting today..up to 80mph gusts in the zone forecast 100-107mph gusts recorded in CO already 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 36 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB is quoting that it's the coldest 45 day in the past 20yrs if the GEFS is to be believed. I have to believe some major cold is coming just to balance out the crazy warmth recently. It seems difficult to me to run the table on warmth like this all winter. If the EPO does cooperate and we get the blocking that's showing up on the ensembles, then I think we do get cold and our chances start shortly thereafter, which is when our general chances at frozen start to increase significantly in general. While I realize that waiting a little bit for the pattern to favor us is much better than having it kick in earlier, I kinda wish we'd seen this like 10 days earlier so that we'd have a better shot at some white leading into Christmas...though I'm not going to complain about it if we do wait and it comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though. the Op GFS was cold 12z for xmas eve through the end of the run...also dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though. we just need some precip. who cares about vodka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we just need some precip. who cares about vodka The Gefs through the end of the year is pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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