WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:44 AM, Ji said: Its not likely we will see snow this month. Maybe early January Expand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 The Canadian is a good model right? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 4:59 AM, jaydreb said: The Canadian is a good model right? Expand It just got upgraded 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Lol CMC would be power outages with major ice and heavy wet snow... if it were to even happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 GFS has a quick shot of snow focused south east on Christmas Eve for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 06z GFS has snow for early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 9:14 AM, SnowenOutThere said: GFS has a quick shot of snow focused south east on Christmas Eve for our area. Expand That was 0z. 6z has a low cutting to Green Bay. Op runs day 10+ are for entertainment purposes only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Signal is still there on the ensembles for something next week. We just can't know the details. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 10:56 AM, CAPE said: That was 0z. 6z has a low cutting to Green Bay. Op runs day 10+ are for entertainment purposes only. Expand I know just posted it because it’s something fun to think about. In fact I made a post earlier about how things never go the way we thought 7 + days out. On 12/12/2021 at 7:53 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 11:44 AM, SnowenOutThere said: I know just posted it because it’s something fun to think about. In fact I made a post earlier about how things never go the way we thought 7 + days out. Expand Things "kind of" go the way we think when we use the ensembles (GEPS,GEFS, EPS) and look at h5 especially looking at NA view....the op runs are often comedy and tragedy all rolled into one show past day 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 10:57 AM, CAPE said: Signal is still there on the ensembles for something next week. We just can't know the details. Expand Weak signal but a small window in a Nina which are what we will need if we want to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 12:30 PM, CAPE said: Expand Nice clustering showing up off the Mid Atl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 GLL needs to GTFO 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 12:47 PM, Wentzadelphia said: One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. Expand The Euro ensemble gets the southern energy involved and has a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 12:47 PM, Wentzadelphia said: One key to this potential event is the energy that gets left behind in the southwest around day 5-6 or so. Of course the HP positioning and confluence are major factors, but this Southwest energy helps phase and bring the low farther SE imo....last night's euro buried that energy and was purely northern stream. I don't think a N stream only event would work out yet. Expand That is my concern here. Nina climo says mostly N stream and the STJ wave gets shredded as it heads east. Nice mix of scenarios on the ens members. Like a few have said, not a strong signal for a major storm but certainly something we can have enjoyment tracking. On 12/13/2021 at 12:58 PM, WxUSAF said: GLL needs to GTFO Expand It does weaken on several ens, so maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped. Colder outcome and could produce a light to moderate frozen event for the MA. Having the developing -NAO and the 50-50 vortex in place can work in our favor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 1:18 PM, CAPE said: Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped. Colder outcome and could produce a light to moderate frozen event for the MA. Having the developing -NAO and the 50-50 vortex in place can work in our favor. Expand A bomb pulls in its own cold air 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Sign me up from some Christmas week snow. Let's all pull together and make this one happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 1:18 PM, CAPE said: Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped Expand Now...given the nina squash tendencies, do we like...wanna root for seeing something more amped at first to make room for said squashing? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:30 PM, North Balti Zen said: Sign me up from some Christmas week snow. Let's all pull together and make this one happen. Expand Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:42 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Now...given the nina squash tendencies, do we like...wanna root for seeing something more amped at first to make room for said squashing? Lol Expand I don't think it matters what we root for lol. NS dominant with a weak/suppressed southern wave is always a viable outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, Yeoman said: Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. Expand at least give me credit for being a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, Yeoman said: Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. Expand This makes sense...post of the year goes to Yeoman. Hats off to you sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 My friend texted me with an image of his teacher for advisory showing the class the 0z Canadian model run, was like "its you". Told him it most likely won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, Yeoman said: Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. Expand See, that's the kind of can't do attitude that isn't helpful. LETS ALL PULL TOGETHER AND MAKE THIS HAPPEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, CAPE said: I don't think it matters what we root for lol. NS dominant with a weak/suppressed southern wave is always a viable outcome. Expand I mean ya know what I mean...in other words we'd rather see too amped and warm at Day 2 or 3 than not, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 2:45 PM, Yeoman said: Remember how we thought the last snow chance was going to be far too amped at long range, then it died to suppression. We have to remember that things won't ever end up the way they are 7 + days out. So don't worry on the specifics of the possible storm early next week, it's just not worth it. Once we get to Thursday we can take it more seriously. Expand Exactly right. Model watching outside of about 3-4 days is fun but nothing you pin hopes or disappointment on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 On 12/13/2021 at 3:55 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly right. Model watching outside of about 3-4 days is fun but nothing you pin hopes or disappointment on. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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