December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Chris78]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Recently, without a consensus, I’d rather have the gfs on our side than the euro.

The Euro isn't what it used to be. I think the gfs has really closed the gap. No science behind the statement, just going off of model watching.

I will say though the Gfs has trended towards the Euro the last several runs and looks like weak sauce. 

[cbmclean]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s too early to say what the base state is

I was under the impression that Nina base state is west trough, east ridge.  

[cbmclean]

45 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The Euro isn't what it used to be. I think the gfs has really closed the gap. No science behind the statement, just going off of model watching.

Per the global correlation charts I have been seeing, the Euro is still the king, with the CMC in second place.  It would be really interesting to see if there is any data showing who scores best on certain specific smaller scales, such as eastern North America.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Comparing this season so far to similar cold ensos I do think that’s where we go at some point. But we mostly wasted similar good looks in some of those similar comps Ive been looking at so not sure how to feel. 

It’s too early to say what the base state is 

It’s possible what they mean are observed issues the guidance is having with initializing that feature accurately and not the tired waiting to come ashore thing. 

If you cared that much you wouldn’t live there 

 

Did that just happen?

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I was under the impression that Nina base state is west trough, east ridge.  

That’s a perception that probably comes from the fact that even when we get a colder nina they still tend not to be great in terms of snow and the warmed ones can be just awful. 

this is all Nina’s in the past 30 years Dec-Feb

If anything the trough is in the east more than the west. The obvious dominant effect is that central pac ridge. There are really 2 pattern types to Nina.  When that ridge is flat all of the conus tends to torch and get flooded with pac puke. When that ridge extends poleward we tend to see cold extend from western Canada into the northeast. Problem is even in the colder look there is no STJ so we get a cold dry pattern usually. That’s still preferable and we can, with blocking, score some snow but absent 1996 we don’t get enough for a “big” winter even in a cold nina. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Southern members have actually done extremely well compared to the heart of the forum the past several winters.

We haven’t had a >2” snow since January 2019…

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a perception that probably comes from the fact that even when we get a colder nina they still tend not to be great in terms of snow and the warmed ones can be just awful. 

this is all Nina’s in the past 30 years Dec-Feb

If anything the trough is in the east more than the west. The obvious dominant effect is that central pac ridge. There are really 2 pattern types to Nina.  When that ridge is flat all of the conus tends to torch and get flooded with pac puke. When that ridge extends poleward we tend to see cold extend from western Canada into the northeast. Problem is even in the colder look there is no STJ so we get a cold dry pattern usually. That’s still preferable and we can, with blocking, score some snow but absent 1996 we don’t get enough for a “big” winter even in a cold nina. 

PSU, I wonder what those Decembers looked like? 

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, IronTy said:

 

Did that just happen?

Why you still here?  You should be contacting realtors. 

[cbmclean]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a perception that probably comes from the fact that even when we get a colder nina they still tend not to be great in terms of snow and the warmed ones can be just awful. 

this is all Nina’s in the past 30 years Dec-Feb

If anything the trough is in the east more than the west. The obvious dominant effect is that central pac ridge. There are really 2 pattern types to Nina.  When that ridge is flat all of the conus tends to torch and get flooded with pac puke. When that ridge extends poleward we tend to see cold extend from western Canada into the northeast. Problem is even in the colder look there is no STJ so we get a cold dry pattern usually. That’s still preferable and we can, with blocking, score some snow but absent 1996 we don’t get enough for a “big” winter even in a cold nina. 

Very interesting.  Where do you go to make those custom graphs?  I know I have done it myself before, but I have forgotten how  If I Google NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, I can find a page hosted by the Physical Sciences Laboratory, but it's not obvious how to enter data to form the graphs.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Very interesting.  Where do you go to make those custom graphs?  I know I have done it myself before, but I have forgotten how  If I Google NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, I can find a page hosted by the Physical Sciences Laboratory, but it's not obvious how to enter data to form the graphs.

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl
 

and if you really want to go down the rabbit hole you can make ones with specific dates here. That’s how I created the snowstorm composites in the snow climo thread. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

PSU, I wonder what those Decembers looked like? 

One reason I originally expected a colder December. But some of the Nina’s that started this way turned colder mid winter so it’s not necessarily all bad. 

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One reason I originally expected a colder December. But some of the Nina’s that started this way turned colder mid winter so it’s not necessarily all bad. 

Thanks, PSU, for the great posts.  I eventually made a similar map just with a NH view.  It is posted in TN Valley thread.  I compared it to the 18z CFSv2.  I also have added the analogs for the d8-14 CPC LR forecast.  Some famous ones and some infamous ones.  Been trying to make sense of the Scandinavian AN heights I am seeing showing up in modeling after d10.  It is interesting to see a similar feature showing up(on analog maps) in the Scandinavia and/or Ural regions. 

[AlexD1990]

Why you still here?  You should be contacting realtors. 

Not everyone's life revolves around snow. I for one think it would be bordering on insanity to move to a different area based solely on how much snow you get? The snark is unnecessary.

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[Ji]

GFS stronger s/w further north

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Not everyone's life revolves around snow. I for one think it would be bordering on insanity to move to a different area based solely on how much snow you get? The snark is unnecessary.

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Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 

If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS stronger s/w further north

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 

If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

NC is where you should go to feel better about Mid Atlantic snow climatology.  Take it from one who lives in the NC coastal plain.

[AlexD1990]

Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 
If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

I get it,believe me. I live in Lewes (rehoboth) so if anyone understands that heartbreak it's me. Last good storm for us was January 2019, and much like the Boxing Day storm, I know both were statistical anomalies for our area. Doesn't mean I don't get frustrated when we miss out, though. Husband wants to move to Maine for snow lol, but I have roots here. Maybe a winter cabin one day

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[Ji]

Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 
If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

Capes post/time to snow ratio is astronomically low. I hope he has other things going on in his life

[Ji]

Not everyone's life revolves around snow. I for one think it would be bordering on insanity to move to a different area based solely on how much snow you get? The snark is unnecessary.

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Mine does. If i was single id be living in maine

[IUsedToHateCold]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

NC is where you should go to feel better about Mid Atlantic snow climatology.  Take it from one who lives in the NC coastal plain.

Haha I lived in Greenville, NC for several years (2003-2008). Climate isn't good there, but you know what? I want to say they may have had more snow than me in the past couple of years. It's been pretty freakin' awful. Last winter I watched sleetstorm after sleetstorm and the winter before that was only a couple small events. 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

46 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Not everyone's life revolves around snow. I for one think it would be bordering on insanity to move to a different area based solely on how much snow you get? The snark is unnecessary.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

Mine does. If i was single id be living in maine

Life is short. 

You need to just make the move. It will never be the right time and your wife will always throw up excuses why it can't happen and she must remain parked in the dreadfully boring NoVA suburbs until you croak. You need to break through.

[Ji]

Life is short. 
You need to just make the move. It will never be the right time and your wife will always throw up excuses why it can't happen and she must remain parked in the dreadfully boring NoVA suburbs until you croak. You need to break through.

Been trying to convince her more and more. She was raised in Wisconsin so we have been casually looking there. My job has become permanent work from home. Its time

[CAPE]

6z GFS shifted SE and is a bit drier, but still the outlier compared to all other guidance. Maybe a dusting on the Euro, or possibly just some flakes evaporating in the dry air before hitting the ground. Most other guidance suggests a dusting to maybe a half inch in a few places.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

6z GFS shifted SE and is a bit drier, but still the outlier compared to all other guidance. Maybe a dusting on the Euro, or possibly just some flakes evaporating in the dry air before hitting the ground. Most other guidance suggests a dusting to maybe a half inch in a few places.

GFS certainly bullish with the trailing s/w diving out of Minnesota leading to enhanced jet core dynamics over you guys. Euro is weaker, but actually carries a more formidable 5H jet on the lead wave. Might be a little under done on the Euro side, but still not like the GFS. I would say there's some compromise likely between the two models. I think GFS is too amped, but the Euro is too light given the favorable 5H setup. Still a T-2" deal for some in the region, but better than a shut out. That lead wave needs to stay amped regardless, or it will be curtains. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS certainly bullish with the trailing s/w diving out of Minnesota leading to enhanced jet core dynamics over you guys. Euro is weaker, but actually carries a more formidable 5H jet on the lead wave. Might be a little under done on the Euro side, but still not like the GFS. I would say there's some compromise likely between the two models. I think GFS is too amped, but the Euro is too light given the favorable 5H setup. Still a T-2" deal for some in the region, but better than a shut out. That lead wave needs to stay amped regardless, or it will be curtains. 

Just seeing some flakes flying with a coating this time of year would be fun, esp since we are about to shift to a warmer pattern by the weekend.

[IronTy]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Relax I’m giving him a hard time. But he would do better to know his climo. CAPE does!  He knows snow is an anomaly where he is and doesn’t act like he expects it.  I had to spend significant portions of some winters in Cape May many years ago and when I was there I didn’t even bother to track. It never once snowed over the probably ~100 days cumulative I spend there in peak winter but I wasn’t upset at all because I didn’t expect anything and hadn’t bothered wasting my time tracking on the rare chance it snowed.  Same when I was dating a girl in NC and spent significant time there or visiting my parents in winter when they were living down there.  
 

If you live somewhere that averages like 10-15” of snow, and most of that comes because once every 10 years or so you get some crazy anomalous snowy year…getting frustrated when it doesn’t snow is just setting yourself up to hate life. 

Time to check "climo" off the list.  I've been living here for almost 20yrs, pretty sure I know my own climo.  Go bother somebody else.  

[BristowWx]

300 hr and beyond GFS throwing around 1050+ hp like Santa...ho ho and ho

[WxUSAF]

@SnowenOutThere start a thread and we can put 12z output in there for wednesdays major snowfall 

[yoda]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

6z GFS shifted SE and is a bit drier, but still the outlier compared to all other guidance. Maybe a dusting on the Euro, or possibly just some flakes evaporating in the dry air before hitting the ground. Most other guidance suggests a dusting to maybe a half inch in a few places.

I'll take the 3-4" 6z GFS shows for me lol... hr 60 would be fun