CAPE Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 11:01 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: My bad. I’ll try to do better. I know it’s been a bad week for you after Ji told you that you live in the ocean Expand I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 11:09 PM, CAPE said: I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. Expand Lol, wouldn’t that just be a kick in the seeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 11:09 PM, CAPE said: I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. Expand At least you wouldn't have to worry about soil temps. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS 3 inch or more percentage took a nice jump…hopefully beginning of a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What’s the range of the 18z euro? 144 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: What’s the range of the 18z euro? 144 hours? Expand Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:25 AM, Weather Will said: Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:25 AM, Weather Will said: Yes. 6 days. I will post when it comes in. Expand Suppressed? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:31 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Suppressed? Expand Yes compared to GFS On 12/5/2021 at 12:31 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Suppressed? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 But the EURO has been awful. Let’s wait for the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 It was super suppressed at 0z last night if I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: It was super suppressed at 0z last night if I remember Expand It was a suppressed, weak ass, strung out mess to be exact. And it's British cousin looked similar. We all know how this is going to end, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 8:56 PM, WxUSAF said: Stolen from elsewhere… This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. Expand Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:44 AM, CAPE said: It was a suppressed, weak ass, strung out mess to be exact. And it's British cousin looked similar. We all know how this is going to end, right? Expand Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 It’s early in the season folks. We will have a 100 failures and be lucky to have five hits…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:48 AM, clskinsfan said: Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. Expand Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good(bad) 2 weeks imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:51 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready Expand Letzz do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:55 AM, CAPE said: Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good 2 weeks imo. Expand We are going to get pretty amped into 7. I will be shocked if we dont make it to 8 in late Dec early Jan at this point. If we can keep some blocking north of us and keep the AO at least neutral I will take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 All snow talk aside the 18z gfs verbatim would make for a fun Sunday next weekend for many. Quite the wind event. Of course, it's a model run for 8 days out so it won't go down exactly like that. (I know. Good job Sherlock Holmes. ) But it just shows that we are going to be in an active pattern for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 18Z EURO ensembles are in line with its deterministic. Weak, south, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:51 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. The gfs and euro meet in the middle for a mid Atlantic snow event. Get ready Expand The laziest word in meteorology: “blend.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 00z NAM (yes, I know) is also looking too weak and suppressed to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 10:38 PM, CAPE said: superstitious much? Expand No, but I am a little stitious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 2:47 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 00z NAM (yes, I know) is also looking too weak and suppressed to amount to much. Expand Other guidance looks similar at same time. Need to get out beyond 84 for things to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 3:13 AM, mattie g said: Other guidance looks similar at same time. Need to get out beyond 84 for things to pop. Expand It’s far enough to tell what would happen. It would be weak and very likely nothing of consequence. The SW is not amplified enough on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon is a little snow mostly southeast of DC but it’s largely a strung out weak non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon is meh... 1-2 for C VA... maybe an inch up to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 3:31 AM, yoda said: Icon is meh... 1-2 for C VA... maybe an inch up to DC Expand A third of the seasonal total is far from "meh" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Lol 00z GFS at 78 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 3:58 AM, yoda said: Lol 00z GFS at 78 and 84 Expand Gfs not backing down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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