December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Well damn lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

I point-and-clicked the summit of Mauna Kea and got this LOL.  Meanwhile 20 miles away it's low 80s 

The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 44 to 54 mph increasing to 70 to 80 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Shortwave is trending flatter which is good for us so it limits WAA ahead of it. GFS still hates it, but its moving flatter as well. Still doubt we thread that needle.

Think some of it will be dependent upon the front that passes through on Monday. The Euro, ICON, and CMC all have a slightly stronger high behind it. If we get a deeper push of that cold air it could help our chances midweek.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

So if we could sign up for the year that followed but it meant crappy winter this year, you sign up for that?

I had 103” that winter. At one point in Feb there were drifts up to roofs. I would sign up for several bad winters to experience that again. 
 

some pics from a walk I took into town that year. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

From LWX

High pressure returns on Tuesday with temperatures plummeting over a 24 hour period in the wake of the cold front passage late Monday night. Highs struggling to get out of the 30s and 40s across the region. Wednesday, a surge of moisture from the SW rolls into the area. This is a system to keep a close eye on, with temperatures already remaining colder from the previous frontal passage, the possibility for some snow to make it east of the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight is there. While, the overall impacts should remain low, this would still warrant a second look over the next few days as guidance divulges on a common solution that may bring a few flurries or rain/snow mix closer even to the metropolitan areas. There remains large uncertainties with this system with track, precip types and potential impacts. Drier pattern behind this frontal system later in the week.

[CAPE]

0z Canadian and Euro ens mean suggests an inch or 2 for areas NW of the cities.

[dallen7908]

 A blurry look at next Wednesday's system.  Clockwise from upper left: EURO, GFS, CMC, and UKMET.  Hopefully, the UKMET is on to something ... 

[frd]

 

 Take this with a grain of salt.  But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening. 

 

 

[frd]

We all laugh at Dr Cohen @CAPE , but I will say this, last year looked better at this point. We had record NA snow cover and a cold period in December.  ( even though we experienced the same typical warmth period after Dec. 15 )  I think there is something to be made of a healthy cryosphere and extensive snow cover. So far the AO forecast have been getting uglier and uglier. 

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 Take this with a grain of salt.  But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening. 

 

 

None of the LR guidance looks "good". Don't look at the latest CanSIPS. All that stuff is big picture though. We aren't likely going to see many favorable h5 looks this winter on the means. We need a period or 2 where the Pac ridge shifts/morphs into an EPO ridge, and/or some help in the NAO domain, and both are difficult to predict at long range.

[Chris78]

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

From LWX

High pressure returns on Tuesday with temperatures plummeting over a 24 hour period in the wake of the cold front passage late Monday night. Highs struggling to get out of the 30s and 40s across the region. Wednesday, a surge of moisture from the SW rolls into the area. This is a system to keep a close eye on, with temperatures already remaining colder from the previous frontal passage, the possibility for some snow to make it east of the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight is there. While, the overall impacts should remain low, this would still warrant a second look over the next few days as guidance divulges on a common solution that may bring a few flurries or rain/snow mix closer even to the metropolitan areas. There remains large uncertainties with this system with track, precip types and potential impacts. Drier pattern behind this frontal system later in the week.

That's a WinterWxLuvr special right there. 

"Surge of moisture from the SW rolls into the area"

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I had 103” that winter. At one point in Feb there were drifts up to roofs. I would sign up for several bad winters to experience that again. 
 

some pics from a walk I took into town that year. 

you dont have to sign up for several bad winters...you already got them without doing anything!

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 Take this with a grain of salt.  But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening. 

 

 

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

I hacked into his cam as he prepares today's video

[Ji]

I hacked into his cam as he prepares today's video

I dont think jb has ever gone a winter without comparing it to 95 96 02 03 or 0910

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

 Take this with a grain of salt.  But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening. 

 

 

JB is  laughing at that. He has said dec and  Jan will be  cold and snowy.

[HighStakes]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

Don't forget his January 85 arctic outbreak and his 1967 whatever the hell with a touch of January 1977 thrown in the mix now.

[toolsheds]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I had 103” that winter. At one point in Feb there were drifts up to roofs. I would sign up for several bad winters to experience that again. 
 

some pics from a walk I took into town that year. 

Those pictures bring back the memories......My paper route was along good old Maiden Lane. :-)

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

almost the entire US is AN for temps heading into mid month...Much AN in some cases...wonder if that will verify.  maybe the worm turns during Xmas week because I can't imagine the whole month broiling like that

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

I used to think he knew what he was talking about.  The issue I have with his '96 idea is he's basing the analog on a model for early January.  I've learned that analoging works best when you compare to the current conditions and not using models to base an argument.

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

 

 Take this with a grain of salt.  But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening. 

 

 

LOL!

Maybe I should ask him what beach week is going to look like for me in August.. then again, the models can't get day 7 right let alone months into the future.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I used to think he knew what he was talking about.  The issue I have with his '96 idea is he's basing the analog on a model for early January.  I've learned that analoging works best when you compare to the current conditions and not using models to base an argument.

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools.  There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all.  He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose.  It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act.  If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.  

[NorthArlington101]

12z ICON still spits out a very interesting result for much of the subforum. Doesn't show wintry mix but with temps it's very close for most, snow for much of D.C. north, ice out west. Little colder towards game time and it's a money run. 

Hope to get more people on the ICON train this year. Would be a good way for it to prove itself.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools.  There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all.  He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose.  It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act.  If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.  

I will copy my next comment to banter.

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS rolling in more wintry -- the members that get precip in by Tuesday seem to want to start it as ice/wintry mix for at least parts of the subforum.

[NorthArlington101]

I'll stop posting individual shots of the GEFS after this, but it's fair to say that most members look very different than the 12z OP run --- generally weaker and more suppressed + earlier with the storm but wintrier as a result. Happens pretty rarely that there is such disagreement from what I've seen, so consider me invested. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It would appear the gfs is playing catch-up here. It seems to be the odd model out. Time will tell

[NorthArlington101]

CMC is delayed but again more suppressed. Snow spreading through Central VA with the mix line not looking too far behind at hr126.

mix line stays south of CHO through hr132. This is gonna be a nice run (for out first storm)

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC is delayed but again more suppressed. Snow spreading through Central VA with the mix line not looking too far behind at hr126.

Keeps the subform as all snow all storm. Like it more than the 0z run very light precip though would be more like mood snow but tis the season. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC is delayed but again more suppressed. Snow spreading through Central VA with the mix line not looking too far behind at hr126.

mix line stays south of CHO through hr132. This is gonna be a nice run (for out first storm)

so we are going to finish December with +10 temps and normal snowfall lol

[NorthArlington101]