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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Hmmm... from this mornings AFD from LWX:

High pressure briefly builds early in the afternoon on Tuesday
ahead of the next system poised to impact the area Thursday and
well into the rest of the work week. Latest guidance introduces
a chance for some snow for much of the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal passage. Should
temperatures continue to trend colder and moisture availability
becomes plentiful, we could see a bit more organization with
this system. Though, skepticism still remains given the
preceding conditions and subsidence overhead throughout the day
on Tuesday, will continue to monitor this potential potent
system midweek and into early next weekend

 

Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening.

Remember when it was on the Euro and we could actually believe in it for a little while because it was the best model and such?  And when it was on the GFS we'd automatically toss it?

Those were the days...

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18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening.

the other red flag is that GLL on the Euro....like bird crap on your car it always seems to show up

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

High pressure briefly builds early in the afternoon on Tuesday ahead of the next system poised to impact the area Thursday and well into the rest of the work week. Latest guidance introduces a chance for some snow for much of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal passage. Should temperatures continue to trend colder and moisture availability becomes plentiful, we could see a bit more organization with this system. Though, skepticism still remains given the preceding conditions and subsidence overhead throughout the day on Tuesday, will continue to monitor this potential potent system midweek and into early next weekend

we've got this

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17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Expect the models to trend warmer regarding winter wx threat. I've never seen such a -PNA/+NAO produce something good. I say max high gets to 72. Sorry for being repetative. It does look at 500mb Day 13-15 a 10mb Stratosphere warming wants to develop, which would agree with my -NAO January analogs. Also, if January is to get cold it would usualy be cold around Christmas. 

Hey Chuck

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gfs and euro pretty far apart on this time frame. Euro has the best looking solution though. That’s probably a giant red flag that it’s not happening.

I've been lurking, watching this period.   They are far, far apart and I actually agree with you.  Yeah, we know the Euro is better, but with the GFS not even being in the ballpark...meh

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24 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk.

This possible event has it all:

Great Lakes Low? Check!

Perfectly timed mediocre airmass? Check!

Early December? Check!

 

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For fear of going full @WinterWxLuvr, I'm at least heartened by seeing precip approach from the SW in the medium range. It might not be cold, but I'd rather not have to rely on scraps from systems coming out of the Upper Midwest. If we can keep getting moisture coming in from the SW, at some point we *have* to have some cold air for it to fall into.

Right?

RIGHT?!?!

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32 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Snow along and ahead of a frontal passage when temps are around 60 leading into it? Yeah...that's a cakewalk.

Temps are warm on Monday but Tuesdays highs are in the mid 30s to lower 40s north to south and by midnight most of the area is at or below freezing per the Euro.

I'm sure the GFS is right though lol.

Always go with the warmest and least snowiest model and you'll be right 90% of  the time. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

No electronics during recess

What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me.

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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me.

Ignore button works well

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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What is wrong with me posting, is it just because I am younger than you? I am allowed to post even I am not the best poster here, I am young and still learning after all. Also recess ends at 6th grade so get it right if you are going to make fun of me.

Relax - just joking.. you're all good

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