December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

most of the subforum got a good winter storm around Dec 15 last year...not my fault you live in the ocean

I actually laughed.

Closer to living in the bay though.

[LP08]

A tradition unlike any other.  Heading into Christmas.

[WxUSAF]

GGEM and Euro both give us a little snow in a week from a low passing through the Lakes. Those always work out  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Euro flirts with us next week. Big changes run to run in both the gfs and euro. Back and forth. Nothing set in stone yet.

Euro doesn’t look all that warm either, although it is close by.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM and Euro both give us a little snow in a week from a low passing through the Lakes. Those always work out  

Yeah completely different type of storm seemingly each model run.

[North Balti Zen]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I actually laughed.

Closer to living in the bay though.

Also, he’s lying. “Most” of the forum didn’t do remotely well in that and even the parts of the forum that were supposed to do well busted - I chased that one to Emmitsburg - they were supposed to get 10-14 and only got around 4. That was the storm that nuked Albany area of New York. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, LP08 said:

A tradition unlike any other.  Heading into Christmas.

The good news is it literally can’t get any worse then that. That’s 100% opposite of what we want in every way. 

[jaydreb]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The good news is it literally can’t get any worse then that. That’s 100% opposite of what we want in every way. 

Ugh.  Where’s the Panic Room?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The good news is it literally can’t get any worse then that. That’s 100% opposite of what we want in every way. 

So it's like being lost in the forest.  The worst you'll be is halfway through!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Ugh.  Where’s the Panic Room?

Sadly, it's been dismantled and sold for scrap since the Reaper retired!

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Also, he’s lying. “Most” of the forum didn’t do remotely well in that and even the parts of the forum that were supposed to do well busted - I chased that one to Emmitsburg - they were supposed to get 10-14 and only got around 4. That was the storm that nuked Albany area of New York. 

I recall that now. It was a cold rain around the bay and east, but forgot how it busted up that way. Reinforces the overall point- December is a Fall month and outside of the highlands, the MA generally doesn't do frozen easily, even with a pretty favorable setup in the high latitudes. 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The good news is it literally can’t get any worse then that. That’s 100% opposite of what we want in every way. 

Literally everything inverted. CFS has had this look consistently for at least the last month, despite hints and chatter elsewhere of a more favorable look developing up top for December.

[mappy]

39 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Also, he’s lying. “Most” of the forum didn’t do remotely well in that and even the parts of the forum that were supposed to do well busted - I chased that one to Emmitsburg - they were supposed to get 10-14 and only got around 4. That was the storm that nuked Albany area of New York. 

no one should take Ji seriously, ever. Literally ever. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

no one should take Ji seriously, ever. Literally ever. 

I will admit I am biased since I have had some interaction with him and we go way back on the weather boards...but imo he can make good posts when he wants to and isn't putting on his "the world is ending" act that he likes to do.  Granted, you have to wade through all his "the sky is falling" stuff to see them though.  

[HighStakes]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I recall that now. It was a cold rain around the bay and east, but forgot how it busted up that way. Reinforces the overall point- December is a Fall month and outside of the highlands, the MA generally doesn't do frozen easily, even with a pretty favorable setup in the high latitudes. 

I just went back and looked. We got over 10 inches here. There's no way Emmitsburg only got 4 inches. Mappy got over 8. Frederick was 6-8. The storm did suck for a lot of the forum but anyone north of the Baltimore Beltway got at least 4 and most areas just inside the Beltway got 2-4. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I just went back and looked. We got over 10 inches here. There's no way Emmitsburg only got 4 inches. Mappy got over 8. Frederick was 6-8. The storm did suck for a lot of the forum but anyone north of the Baltimore Beltway got at least 4 and most areas just inside the Beltway got 2-4. 

You don’t count as part of the sub forum. It’s only a 25 mile radius.

[North Balti Zen]

23 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I just went back and looked. We got over 10 inches here. There's no way Emmitsburg only got 4 inches. Mappy got over 8. Frederick was 6-8. The storm did suck for a lot of the forum but anyone north of the Baltimore Beltway got at least 4 and most areas just inside the Beltway got 2-4. 

I was LITERALLY in Emmtisburg for that. Got a hotel and everything. It snowed from noon to around 3:30 and then went to snizel. By evening it was done. It was pretty, maybe got to 5 inches? Tops. I stayed the night. It was EXTREMELY disappointing. Yes way. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Expect the models to trend warmer regarding winter wx threat. I've never seen such a -PNA/+NAO produce something good. I say max high gets to 72. Sorry for being repetative. It does look at 500mb Day 13-15 a 10mb Stratosphere warming wants to develop, which would agree with my -NAO January analogs. Also, if January is to get cold it would usualy be cold around Christmas. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I recall that now. It was a cold rain around the bay and east, but forgot how it busted up that way. Reinforces the overall point- December is a Fall month and outside of the highlands, the MA generally doesn't do frozen easily, even with a pretty favorable setup in the high latitudes. 

My notes say I got 1.5" here in Burke and that we were progged to get smacked about a week out until everything shifted 100 miles north and a little west a few days before gametime.

[HighStakes]

23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I was LITERALLY in Emmtisburg for that. Got a hotel and everything. It snowed from noon to around 3:30 and then went to snizel. By evening it was done. It was pretty, maybe got to 5 inches? Tops. I stayed the night. It was EXTREMELY disappointing. Yes way. 

Well you were extremely unlucky in that one location because every area surrounding Emmitsburg recorded double what you saw. I would not label that storm a bust for the northern tier. It was clear by gametime that the huge totals models were spitting out a few days before we're not going to be realized. For mid December it was a very decent storm. Other than a few members almost everyone received some accumulation.

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Sadly, it's been dismantled and sold for scrap since the Reaper retired!

Its a shame he did because he might have reaped his earliest souls this year. I am fine with losing December if we can get the pattern to flip heading into prime climo. But I am not giving up on December either at this point. The MJO forecast is pretty good with some solid amplification into phase 7 by mid December. With the possibility of heading into 8 in late December. The AO and NAO are also both forecast to head to at least neutral if not slightly negative in that same timeframe. 

[CAPE]

Only 'positive' I can find on any of the LR guidance wrt the large scale pattern is the Euro weeklies and extended GEFS have the EPO and WPO trending somewhat negative around mid month. Something to monitor.

In the meantime I am just going to enjoy the upcoming milder weather. Perhaps we see some improvement in the h5 pattern by early Jan when climo is better.

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Only 'positive' I can find on any of the LR guidance wrt the large scale pattern is the Euro weeklies and extended GEFS have the EPO and WPO trending somewhat negative around mid month. Something to monitor.

In the meantime I am just going to enjoy the upcoming milder weather. Perhaps we see some improvement in the h5 pattern by early Jan when climo is better.

The wave-3 pattern that’s setup is pretty stable, but you’re right that the long range guidance slowly evolves it extending those ridges more poleward, which pushes the PV farther south into Canada. That should squash the SE ridge and also push the storm track to a more favorable latitude. But it’s a way off and very subject to change.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

The wave-3 pattern that’s setup is pretty stable, but you’re right that the long range guidance slowly evolves it extending those ridges more poleward, which pushes the PV farther south into Canada. That should squash the SE ridge and also push the storm track to a more favorable latitude. But it’s a way off and very subject to change.

Yeah just something to keep an eye on for now.  This would be a more manageable look.

[WxUSAF]

Certainly very cold air in Canada with that look ^^^, so any digging shortwave or transient ridge out west should be able to tap into that.  

[Ji]

Only 'positive' I can find on any of the LR guidance wrt the large scale pattern is the Euro weeklies and extended GEFS have the EPO and WPO trending somewhat negative around mid month. Something to monitor.
In the meantime I am just going to enjoy the upcoming milder weather. Perhaps we see some improvement in the h5 pattern by early Jan when climo is better.

So instead of rain and 55 for you its rain and 51

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Only 'positive' I can find on any of the LR guidance wrt the large scale pattern is the Euro weeklies and extended GEFS have the EPO and WPO trending somewhat negative around mid month. Something to monitor.
In the meantime I am just going to enjoy the upcoming milder weather. Perhaps we see some improvement in the h5 pattern by early Jan when climo is better.

So instead of rain and 55 for you its rain and 51

If so it would be rain and 45 for you. I'll take the low 50s.

[yoda]

Hmmm... from this mornings AFD from LWX:

High pressure briefly builds early in the afternoon on Tuesday
ahead of the next system poised to impact the area Thursday and
well into the rest of the work week. Latest guidance introduces
a chance for some snow for much of the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal passage. Should
temperatures continue to trend colder and moisture availability
becomes plentiful, we could see a bit more organization with
this system. Though, skepticism still remains given the
preceding conditions and subsidence overhead throughout the day
on Tuesday, will continue to monitor this potential potent
system midweek and into early next weekend

 

[mappy]

14 hours ago, HighStakes said:

I just went back and looked. We got over 10 inches here. There's no way Emmitsburg only got 4 inches. Mappy got over 8. Frederick was 6-8. The storm did suck for a lot of the forum but anyone north of the Baltimore Beltway got at least 4 and most areas just inside the Beltway got 2-4. 

Yeah that was a nice event. Was thankful for work from home 

[Wonderdog]

14 hours ago, mattie g said:

My notes say I got 1.5" here in Burke and that we were progged to get smacked about a week out until everything shifted 100 miles north and a little west a few days before gametime.

Perfect example of the tendency for the snow line to move north just prior to game time.