Potent pattern for part TWO being an impact event NYC subforum Thanksgiving weekend: Fri-Sun 11/26-28.

[MJO812]

Cmc has a light snowfall for our area

[ForestHillWx]

Snow-showers mixing in out this way. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has a light snowfall for our area

CMC a little later than I'd like (Monday). EC still on board.  UK sort of odd 12z/26 OP 500MB evolution.  I still don't know for sure.   IF it's going to snow Sunday morning I'd like to see the GFS/NAM on board as well as GGEM/RGEM.  

fwiw: very recent wind gusts over 40 knots... just sw of our area. 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
KCII: Choteau, MT, United States [41kt, 21m/s]
KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [49kt, 25m/s]
KGTF: Great Falls, Great Falls Intl Arpt, MT, United States [43kt, 22m/s]
KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s]
KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [45kt, 23m/s]
KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]
KLWT: Lewistown, Lewistown Municipal Airport, MT, United States [48kt, 25m/s]
KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [43kt, 22m/s]
 

[wdrag]

Let's add the misery map starting to show some wind related delays. My guess is this will increase through 10 PM.  s NJ in the upper 30s (knots) and even near NYC now in the mid -upper 30s knots. Click the images for greater clarity.

[snywx]

On and off flurries out this way.

temp 37

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, snywx said:

On and off flurries out this way.

temp 37

Ditto harmless a little bit around here in nw NJ. mPING helpful. 37.6F at 740'MSL.  Max G 26MPH so far today.  My guess is that gust will increase this evening.

[STORMANLI]

Ice pellets mixed in with rain here now

[wdrag]

Wantagh NYS Mesonet and ISP have hit 40-42 knot.  Minor impacts. 

[Stormlover74]

Well that was a fun landing at ewr just now

[wdrag]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well that was a fun landing at ewr just now

Bumpy?

[Stormlover74]

Bumpy?

Yeah the last 20 minutes or so were pretty bumpy and a fairly rough landing..was on a 737

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Actually had a few flakes mixed in with a rain shower on the uws About 2 hours ago. So first flakes in nyc 

[MJO812]

0z hi res nam

[MJO812]

Umm

[snowman19]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2021112700&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[wdrag]

Good morning NYC--- and all surroundings!  Wish I had better news, for something more than mood flakes-dustings-coatings Sunday morning, probably by 10AM, possibly as soon as midnight tonight in the western suburbs. Model disagreement says, no guarantee, and this could be showery or if you weren't up to see it-you might miss whatever. Also don 't think it's worthy to stay up for, except that from my view, due to EC consistency, NYC should (or is it could?) receive it's first Trace of snow in the air Sunday (not the hail Trace of the 13th).  Some of the models are dry, so that tells me, miniscule...but I'll probably start a thread (mood flurries, or dustings Sunday morning), pending the 18z cycle from today, presuming there is still a chance in the coastal plain. 

The lead short wave diving southeast from the Great Lakes is the driver...it weakens as it crosses PA early Sunday, and with low dew points in place, some (maybe most) of the falling snow aloft will dry out in the coastal plain, 

ne PA/nw NJ hills could see spotty 1/2", maybe too se NYS with less, if any in CT.

The following primary trough aloft passes through our area Monday, when we could see a snow shower or flurry.

Nothingburger as some would say, but for a first somewhat widespread hour to 3 hours of snow (no guarantee widespread), that's what makes it worth it. Certainly wouldn't thread something like this in mid winter, though with the much discussed future winter pattern, is this all there is going to be (-NAO to boot)? Happy shopping! 619A/27

 

Corrected nothingburger spelling at 922A. 

[wdrag]

Been flurries here in Sussex County of extreme nw NJ for past two hours. No accumulations. will mPING again.

[MJO812]

First flakes

 

Rgem

[MJO812]

Cmc

[wdrag]

The result of this thread: Overall a BUST utilizing 500MB ensemble pattern forecasts and an associated -NAO.  Both troughs did not yield as desired - expected, with modeling well in advance far too threatening,  eventually caving in to modest - rather paltry for the November impacts and essentially a drier than normal pattern for our NYC subforum.