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Friday, November 12, 2021 Severe Potential


weatherwiz
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Man, I was right in Branford where the tornado supposedly was. I was at the Stop and Shop at exit 56, watching the sky. I saw some very cool lightning, a few darkish looking clouds, and absolutely no sign of any tornado. No high winds, no lowerings, nothing. I was right there, and saw essentially nothing. Unbelievable. Not doubting it happened, mind you, just disgusted that I could be so close and completely miss everything. I mean I just happened to be in almost the perfect spot pretty much by chance, and stil... I got Nada. Honestly, I didn't even suspect any severe actually happened in the area until I got home and read this thread.

(sigh...)

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  On 11/14/2021 at 1:59 AM, ct_yankee said:

Man, I was right in Branford where the tornado supposedly was. I was at the Stop and Shop at exit 56, watching the sky. I saw some very cool lightning, a few darkish looking clouds, and absolutely no sign of any tornado. No high winds, no lowerings, nothing. I was right there, and saw essentially nothing. Unbelievable. Not doubting it happened, mind you, just disgusted that I could be so close and completely miss everything. I mean I just happened to be in almost the perfect spot pretty much by chance, and stil... I got Nada. Honestly, I didn't even suspect any severe actually happened in the area until I got home and read this thread.

(sigh...)

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That blows ughhh

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  On 11/15/2021 at 1:54 AM, weatherwiz said:

8-confirmed tornadoes thus far.

EF-0 Branford, CT

EF-1 Stonington, CT to Westerly, RI

EF-0 in Cheshire, CT

EF-0 Sterling/Plainfield, CT

EF-0 East Islip, NY

EF-0 Nassau County, NY (skipping) 

EF-1 Shirley, NY to Manorville, NY

EF-0 North Kingston, RI

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Looks like we can add a 9th

EF-0 from Remsenburg, NY to Westhampton, NY

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  On 11/16/2021 at 11:08 PM, Ginx snewx said:
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  On 11/16/2021 at 11:08 PM, Ginx snewx said:
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Your buddies place got hit hard, he yard was just covered with trees and over his pool, any major damage?

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  On 11/16/2021 at 11:54 PM, DavisStraight said:

 

Your buddies place got hit hard, he yard was just covered with trees and over his pool, any major damage?

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Roof damage, siding damage but all minor stuff.  You can see where the edge of the funell touched his house. Early estimate is 60K most to rebuild the pool. The pool house broke concrete around the pool and the trees destroyed the liner. 

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  On 11/17/2021 at 7:33 PM, CT Rain said:

How many would have been confirmed pre dual pol?

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Ooo, good question. I'm thinking the CT were prime "microburst" candidates because they were away from the main show on Long Island. There would've been a handful on the island that had enough damage to warrant a closer look. But I think half or less is definitely on the table without dual-pol. 

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  On 11/17/2021 at 7:28 PM, OceanStWx said:

Now we're getting to the right number based off TDSs.

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The TDS's going on were pretty wild...probably even helped some by the degree of leaves still on the trees getting sucked up. 

As always, Ryan did a phenomenal job providing heads up and warning viewers and using dual-pol to illustrate. 

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  On 11/17/2021 at 8:00 PM, weatherwiz said:

The TDS's going on were pretty wild...probably even helped some by the degree of leaves still on the trees getting sucked up. 

As always, Ryan did a phenomenal job providing heads up and warning viewers and using dual-pol to illustrate. 

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It was tough. I wasn't in the office but we did go on a few times with updates.

Not having even a SVR in effect (for some inexplicable reason) made the entire thing far more challenging to cover than it should have been. 

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  On 11/17/2021 at 8:29 PM, CT Rain said:

It was tough. I wasn't in the office but we did go on a few times with updates.

Not having even a SVR in effect (for some inexplicable reason) made the entire thing far more challenging to cover than it should have been. 

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I think now with the SVR with tornado possible tag available we have an ideal avenue for those tricky scenarios where you aren't quite confident enough to pull the trigger on a TOR. Especially when you could argue some of these tornadoes are probably not much different than a SVR anyway.

But you have to be ready to use them.

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  On 11/17/2021 at 8:29 PM, CT Rain said:

It was tough. I wasn't in the office but we did go on a few times with updates.

Not having even a SVR in effect (for some inexplicable reason) made the entire thing far more challenging to cover than it should have been. 

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When the line starting pushing into western Connecticut and the warning got dropped for Litchfield County I was starting to wonder what was going on. I felt as if this wasn't going to transpire (I had a ton of confidence we would see a widespread damaging wind event based on the parameters moving through the morning). I was starting to wonder if perhaps the llvl winds were just a bit too weak. 

I was with my friend/roommate from school at the airport and we were talking and we were both wondering if none of the radar sites were fully capturing what was going on. We were frequently switching between ENX/OKX/BOX. I was also wondering if the storms would take off moving into the valley. 

When we got hit at BDL I was stunned there wasn't a warning out. Those winds were quite strong and even after the 54mph gust was measured I still don't think a warning came out right away. Through all of this, however, there were several intriguing radar signatures and you could see all the wind that was aloft on each radar site. 

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  On 11/17/2021 at 8:41 PM, OceanStWx said:

I think now with the SVR with tornado possible tag available we have an ideal avenue for those tricky scenarios where you aren't quite confident enough to pull the trigger on a TOR. Especially when you could argue some of these tornadoes are probably not much different than a SVR anyway.

But you have to be ready to use them.

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Given the environment with those storms it was bizarre not to have a SVR in effect especially with those velocity signatures.... AND the large number of TDSs already on Long Island. Wasn't great but hopefully next time will be better.

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  On 11/17/2021 at 9:33 PM, CT Rain said:

Given the environment with those storms it was bizarre not to have a SVR in effect especially with those velocity signatures.... AND the large number of TDSs already on Long Island. Wasn't great but hopefully next time will be better.

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I feel like the last few years have given us several good events to learn from.

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