weatherwiz Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 On 11/11/2021 at 10:23 PM, weatherwiz said: Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region. Expand All equates to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Hopefully a dangerous day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Should see lower 60's dews get into at least parts of CT, RI, SE MA over the next few hours. HRRR (per mesoanalysis) suggesting >175-200 J of 3km CAPE as well. 0-1km shear is pretty high. If any updrafts can tap into these we may see a few brief spinners today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Dewpoints now into the lower 60's across southern CT. Strong convection south of Long Island. Radar sampling 70-80+ mph winds only a few thousand feet above the ground. Won't take much to mix into that given these dewpoints/llvl CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks like a bust ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 On 11/12/2021 at 5:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like a bust ? Expand Gotta watch that convective cell south of Long Island...that may head towards New Haven/Branford/Clinton areas over the next 30-45 min. Then need to watch the low-topped line as it works through central/eastern CT. It will encounter higher dewpoint/theta-e air and greater instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 el busto here-some good winds but not much rain fall and the back edge is about 60-90 minutes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Winds are cranking. A few gusts around 40, sustained at about 20-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Rotation with cell near Nantucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 hell of a storm out there at ACK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Let’s see if we can muster up something today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/12/2021 at 11:34 PM, Torch Tiger said: hell of a storm out there at ACK... Expand First tornado warning in a long time for them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Shaping up to be a big afternoon. Steep mlvl lapse rates and llvl lapse rates, strong shear, just enough moisture. Going to see lots of wind damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Looks like we’ll see 100-125+ 3km CAPE with 3km lapse rates 7-8 C/KM. Strong signal for widespread damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:22 PM, weatherwiz said: Looks like we’ll see 100-125+ 3km CAPE with 3km lapse rates 7-8 C/KM. Strong signal for widespread damaging winds Expand You can see the beginnings of a derecho starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You can see the beginnings of a derecho starting Expand This could rival a serial derecho but may end up falling short of official criteria. We are primed for widespread damaging winds with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 SVR Thunderstorm Watch up for the entire region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:33 PM, Spanks45 said: SVR Thunderstorm Watch up for the entire region.... Expand Damage incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 That’s some serious wording. You don’t typically see 75mph gusts mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That’s some serious wording. You don’t typically see 75mph gusts mentioned Expand This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 5:57 PM, weatherwiz said: This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating Expand This is going to sneak up on a lot of people, its nice and calm and sunny right now, I bet a lot of people aren't paying attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Crap RadarScope keeps crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 6:53 PM, weatherwiz said: Crap RadarScope keeps crashing Expand What do you think Wiz 4pm its hits your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 On 11/13/2021 at 6:59 PM, DavisStraight said: What do you think Wiz 4pm its hits your area? Expand Much sooner…probably more like 3:00-3:15 Just got to BDL from Springfield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Impressive lightning just northwest of Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Rather surprised no damaging wind reports…all hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 TDS western LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Really cool clouds coming through now. No idea what you call them, but they look like ribbons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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