OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Storm near Brookhaven is likely on the ground. 

Definitely damage. Looks like the twister split into two…

[Cfa]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

NASTY twister just popped southeast Suffolk. By Bellport. Very tight rotation 

Looks like there’s two of them.

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[LIWeatherGuy29]

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Anyone know what streets the damage is on? I live in Lynbrook but had no damage in my backyard. I did lose power for a short period though.

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Any idea what streets the damage is on? I live in Lynbrook but had no damage in my backyard.

 

No. Sorry.  The second pic is Levittown. 

[Cfa]

Yikes.

[MJO812]

From 63 earlier to 45 now in Staten island 

[Rjay]

24 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I watched intently and saw nothing. Hail to the east and west of me.

Wife says it's hailing again. Lol.  

That little cell. 

[psv88]

Never seen a tornado outbreak on the island like this before. Ever. 

[Cfa]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wife says it's hailing again. Lol.  

That little cell. 

Lol I hate it here. That little cell went just south of me.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol I hate it here. That little cell went just south of me.

I’ve seen hail twice this year 

[bluewave]

This was the first time that I saw asperatus  clouds ahead of severe storms on Long Island.

 

 

[LIWeatherGuy29]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No. Sorry.  The second pic is Levittown. 

Thanks, I found the street name on Twitter.

[bluewave]

Damage at Chipotle in Suffolk.

 

 

[Tatamy]

NWS Upton has reported the following wind gusts this afternoon at the Mesonet sites shown below:

East Moriches 3:55pm 79 mph 

Mecox Bay 4:20pm 71 mph 

[Tatamy]

NWS Upton LSR's

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEVITTOWN           40.73N 73.52W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR TULIP LANE IN
            LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ISLIP TERRACE       40.74N 73.19W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN, HOUSES WITH
            TREE DAMAGE, ROADS BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES
            SOUTH OF MONTAUK HIGHWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
423 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SHIRLEY AIRPORT   40.82N 72.86W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PONCHO DRIVE IN
            MASTIC. TREE ON POWERLINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E REMSENBURG-SPEONK   40.81N 72.68W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEVITTOWN               40.72N 73.51W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEVITTOWN         40.73N 73.53W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CAR ON HILLTOP ROAD IN
            LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST ISLIP              40.72N 73.18W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES, TREES, AND POWER LINES DOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
11/13/2021  M60 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            NDBC BUOY 44065 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52
            KNOTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BETHPAGE          40.76N 73.46W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

 

 

[Tatamy]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

NWS Upton has reported the following wind gusts this afternoon at the Mesonet sites shown below:

East Moriches 3:55pm 79 mph 

Mecox Bay 4:20pm 71 mph 

A station that I follow on WU in Cherry Grove recorded 54 mph at 3:29 pm

SE Light on Block Island just reported a wind gust to 54 mph.

[Cfa]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Damage at Chipotle in Suffolk.

 

 

I know exactly where that is, I was actually at that Chipotle a couple of weeks ago.

[bluewave]

Small planes flipped at Brookhaven airport.

 

 

[Intensewind002]

Seems like I missed out on a pretty wild severe day back home

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from today’s severe thunderstorms.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

I know exactly where that is, I was actually at that Chipotle a couple of weeks ago.

Partial collapse of the restaurant according to a report on twitter.

 

[lee59]

I'm not home but had a 40mph gust at my house. About 2 blocks away trees are down and reports of possible tornado.

[Rjay]

Levittown 

 

[wdrag]

Sting Jet: Usually with bombogenesis, especially extreme. Our satellite from midday yesterday on.  Compare with sting jet satellite second link below. 

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=240&dim=1

 

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/26650

 

Wikipedia probably has a pretty good set of info and schematics-composites. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet#/media/File:European_Windstorm_Conceptual_Model.jpg

 

Yesterday was considerable instability with southerly low level flow of moisture advection associated with the second of the strong short waves rotating newd through the ne USA grabbing some of the strong winds aloft.  When we get a sting jet (100 MPH swath south side of a bombogenesis cyclone), a rare occurrence here,  we won't like it. BIGGGG damage.

 

 

[Tatamy]

I came across this photo of the tornado that hit the Shirley area.  

[wdrag]

Excellent posts yesterday. I won't reiterate the SVR, except to say this 'potential' was modeled at least 36-48 hours in advance. HRRR Cape, lightning, hail, supercell composite. 

I have attached Part ONE rainfall of the 3 embedded event of the large eastern USA trough.  Click for greater clarity.

 

I'll add part TWO later this morning and the two day totals. 

[bluewave]

Record number of tornado warnings issued from the NWS at OKX for October and November since 2018.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC059&phenomena=TO&significance=W&cmap=Greens&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[wdrag]

Part Three: tonight and Monday.  A band of showers will cross the subforum.  Amounts generally light altho show intensity in  some areas will be briefly (a few minutes) moderate or heavy.  This showers will change to briefly minor accumulating wet snow terrain above 1000 feet in ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT.  The showers will probably intensify as they cross eastern LI early Monday. Slight chance Thunder there.  

Monday... rather deep short wave crosses the area with scattered showers or sprinkles, except flurries I84 corridor higher terrain.  Of interest is modeling attempting to generate thunder E LI Twin Forks newd, during midday.

Three-Four Day CoCoRAHS rainfall totals will post Wednesday. (12th-15th stretch). 

 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Record number of tornado warnings issued from the NWS at OKX for October and November since 2018.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC059&phenomena=TO&significance=W&cmap=Greens&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Part doppler related, part greater comfort issuing.