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OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Some photos from today’s severe thunderstorms.

Rjay
Rjay

Levittown   

JerseyWx
JerseyWx

Had TREMENDOUS downpours between 1:10 and 1:35.  Also had very good sized hail.  This picture was an hour after the storm ended.  That's bigger than a pea if you can't tell.  

Posted Images

Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted

NWS Upton LSR's 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEVITTOWN           40.73N 73.52W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR TULIP LANE IN
            LEVITTOWN.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ISLIP TERRACE       40.74N 73.19W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN, HOUSES WITH
            TREE DAMAGE, ROADS BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES
            SOUTH OF MONTAUK HIGHWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
423 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SHIRLEY AIRPORT   40.82N 72.86W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PONCHO DRIVE IN
            MASTIC. TREE ON POWERLINE.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E REMSENBURG-SPEONK   40.81N 72.68W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEVITTOWN               40.72N 73.51W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEVITTOWN         40.73N 73.53W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CAR ON HILLTOP ROAD IN
            LEVITTOWN.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST ISLIP              40.72N 73.18W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES, TREES, AND POWER LINES DOWN.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
11/13/2021  M60 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            NDBC BUOY 44065 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52
            KNOTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BETHPAGE          40.76N 73.46W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

 

 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

NWS Upton has reported the following wind gusts this afternoon at the Mesonet sites shown below:

East Moriches 3:55pm 79 mph 

Mecox Bay 4:20pm 71 mph 

A station that I follow on WU in Cherry Grove recorded 54 mph at 3:29 pm

SE Light on Block Island just reported a wind gust to 54 mph.

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wdrag

wdrag

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Sting Jet: Usually with bombogenesis, especially extreme. Our satellite from midday yesterday on.  Compare with sting jet satellite second link below. 

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=240&dim=1

 

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/26650

 

Wikipedia probably has a pretty good set of info and schematics-composites. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet#/media/File:European_Windstorm_Conceptual_Model.jpg

 

Yesterday was considerable instability with southerly low level flow of moisture advection associated with the second of the strong short waves rotating newd through the ne USA grabbing some of the strong winds aloft.  When we get a sting jet (100 MPH swath south side of a bombogenesis cyclone), a rare occurrence here,  we won't like it. BIGGGG damage.

 

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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Excellent posts yesterday. I won't reiterate the SVR, except to say this 'potential' was modeled at least 36-48 hours in advance. HRRR Cape, lightning, hail, supercell composite. 

I have attached Part ONE rainfall of the 3 embedded event of the large eastern USA trough.  Click for greater clarity.

 

I'll add part TWO later this morning and the two day totals. 

Screen Shot 2021-11-13 at 7.42.07 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-13 at 7.42.39 PM.png

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wdrag

wdrag

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Part Three: tonight and Monday.  A band of showers will cross the subforum.  Amounts generally light altho show intensity in  some areas will be briefly (a few minutes) moderate or heavy.  This showers will change to briefly minor accumulating wet snow terrain above 1000 feet in ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT.  The showers will probably intensify as they cross eastern LI early Monday. Slight chance Thunder there.  

Monday... rather deep short wave crosses the area with scattered showers or sprinkles, except flurries I84 corridor higher terrain.  Of interest is modeling attempting to generate thunder E LI Twin Forks newd, during midday.

Three-Four Day CoCoRAHS rainfall totals will post Wednesday. (12th-15th stretch). 

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Record number of tornado warnings issued from the NWS at OKX for October and November since 2018.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC059&phenomena=TO&significance=W&cmap=Greens&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

A9EAD35B-7898-4E63-9AA6-1939A33C12F7.thumb.png.e05add403bab7ba952c36bc909eedb23.png

 

Part doppler related, part greater comfort issuing.  

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