OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

[qg_omega]

Doesn’t get much nicer than this for 1030am in mid November, 63 and sunny

[bluewave]

These near record midlevel lapse rates are as steep as we see on the Plains with their spring and summer severe outbreaks.

 

[White Gorilla]

How unusual is it to have sexere potential this late in the season at our latitude? 

[JonClaw]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

How unusual is it to have sexere potential this late in the season at our latitude? 

Pretty unusual based on this:

[weathermedic]

OKX just put this out:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1126 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
132200-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1126 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

* A cold front moving across this afternoon will be accompanied
  by a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line should develop
  over western portions of New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley
  after midday and sweep across the rest of the area this
  afternoon, moving across northeastern New Jersey and the rest of
  the lower Hudson Valley before 2 PM. New York City and vicinity
  between 1 to 3 PM. Southwestern Connecticut and Western Long
  Island from 2 to 4 PM. Southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long
  Island from 3 to 5 PM.

* Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, brief heavy rain of one quarter to
  one half inch, and small hail are possible as this line moves
  through. The strongest thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
  gusts over 60 mph and hail close to 1 inch in diameter. Some
  downed trees, limbs, and power lines may occur.

* Severe thunderstorm watches and warnings may be a possibility
  for this afternoon as the situation unfolds. Keep an eye to the
  sky and listen to NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio and broadcast
  media for further details.

[weathermedic]

Just issued:

 

[wdrag]

Thunderstorms w NJ now.  

[wdrag]

MPING pea sized hail w NJ now

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

MPING pea sized hail w NJ now

Was just going to post that too

[wdrag]

Pea hail from a DVIL storm of about 8. When DVIL increases, hail will be larger. 

[weathermedic]

Getting juicy on radar:

 

[wdrag]

Post away as it keeps going. Storms producing multiple reports of hail up to 1/2” diameter. This via MPING

[IrishRob17]

A report of 1/2 inch hail just west of Union. 

[weathermedic]

[weathermedic]

Severe t-storm warnings with those cells in western NJ for hail up to .75 inches and winds up to 60mph.

Watch just issued for most of the area:

[qg_omega]

Looks like one of better severe chances of year

[DerangedHermit]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

How unusual is it to have sexere potential this late in the season at our latitude? 

IIRC, Suffolk had a tornado warned storm around this time last year

[weathermedic]

OKX AFD updated at 1pm:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast continues on track, except for the NYC area where bkn
mid and high level clouds ahead of the approaching front were
already starting to move in, skies were mostly sunny. Temps had
reached 60 in/around NYC, but dewpoints were still mostly on 
the low side, still in the 40s, while lower 50s dewpoints were
draped across Long Island and southern NJ. This higher dewpoint
air should advect northward into this afternoon and help provide
instability for shower/tstms this afternoon. Disorganized line
already forming across the NW NJ/E PA border where there was a
lightning strike earlier. CAM's insistent on development of a
convective line along the approaching cold front over Orange 
County southward into NJ between 17Z-18Z and sweeping E this 
afternoon, with only minor differences in timing, moving across
NYC and the rest of the Hudson Valley between 18Z-20Z, SW CT 
and western Long Island 19Z-21Z, and SE CT/eastern Long Island 
20Z-22Z. Fcst soundings show a low CAPE, high shear environment,
with steep lapse rates due to sfc temps in the 50s to lower 60s
and H5 temps as cold as -25C, also strong low level winds 
veering from SE to S over the lowest 1 km, with 1 km AGL winds 
35-40 kt, and a push of boundary layer winds 40-45 kt right
behind the line. Latest HRRR/NAM-3km have shifted the focus of
potential severe wx a little farther south, so not only agree 
with SPC slight risk for most of CT, but think this risk will 
also encompass most of the CWA, except perhaps Orange and W 
Passaic. So all modes of svr wx are on the table, primarily 
wind, but marginally svr hail is also a risk given very cold H5 
temps, and cannot totally rule out an isolated tornado given 
veering wind profiles with height, but think this risk is lowest
of the three modes since 0-3km CAPE may be limited. Storms will
be fast movers, so the heaviest rain producers will only have 
time to drop 1/4 to 1/2 inch at most.

[IrishRob17]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NJC031-NYC071-131900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0082.211113T1802Z-211113T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
102 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Central Orange County in southeastern New York...

* Until 200 PM EST.

* At 101 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake
  Telemark, or 11 miles southwest of West Milford, moving northeast
  at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
           damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Middletown, West Milford, Ringwood, Pompton Lakes, Monroe, Warwick,
  Goshen, Howells, Bloomingdale, Chester, Greenwood Lake, Florida,
  Harriman, Upper Greenwood Lake and Kiryas Joel.

 

[Stormlover74]

Thundering but storms are below severe levels down this way

[dmillz25]

Hailing at my friends place near the Trenton area

[Stormlover74]

Warning issued for central NJ 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
115 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
  Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 215 PM EST.

* At 114 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kingston, or
  11 miles southwest of New Brunswick, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
           roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

[Rtd208]

Under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here now.

[qg_omega]

Reports of golf ball size hail

[wdrag]

Should be very large hail just northwest Wananque NJ where DVIL over 40.  

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Reports of golf ball size hail

Nickel sized hail for me. Never seen this before

[Stormlover74]

Hailing but very small

[Cyg]

Very small hail mixed in with the rain here in New Providence

Edit: looks like there was 3/4 inch hail just to my north in Chatham.

[WeatherGod]

Nickel sized hail in Piscataway while heading into the Rutgers basketball game

[winterwx21]

Had a lot of pea sized hail here. Only a little bit of thunder and not too much wind, but extremely heavy rain and the most hail I've seen in quite awhile. Nice storm.