snowman33 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Gonna roll with 0-1" IMBY right now due to the time of year and uncertainty over evolution. Could be wrong though, I've seen stranger. Might have to revise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse: "A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID- LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO 675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. " This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse:I wouldn’t go there yet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse: "A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID- LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO 675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. " This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO. agreed. This gradual slope down to winter has been somewhat atypical over the past 5-6 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle. We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle. The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle. We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle. The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. is there any ground temp data out there? We talk about it a lot but I’ve never actually seen any hard data. Seems it would be useful to industry (albeit limited) primarily surrounding planting season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 18Z GFS is actually showing a nice heavy burst of snow across Southern Michigan now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle. We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle. The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. And for the latter issue, it'll help that temps will be held in the 30's from later tonight on through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I think we eek out an inch or so, nothing crazy but something to get on board here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 I know, I know, it's the 18Z but it's upping the totals for the Sunday system. Curious. It's good to be back with you all. It's been a while since I wasted my time and lost mind on this crazy addiction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 39 minutes ago, Frog Town said: I know, I know, it's the 18Z but it's upping the totals for the Sunday system. Curious. It's good to be back with you all. It's been a while since I wasted my time and lost mind on this crazy addiction. I've been lurking on sites like this since 2009. Excited for another winter season. Seems like it's been hard to get respectable Decembers in these parts for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle. We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle. The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. This isn't February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Gfs shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant.We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 McLovin it. Nice way to start the season, if it comes back to bite our asses it'll be nice to do away with the "trends to shit every time" jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant. We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt. Need to get it closer but the trends today have been favorable for a better system, with the current system moving east enough to allow for further development of this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 Nice trends for sure. Would be kind of messy if something like that pans out. A lot of trees still have a lot of leaves. Trees on my block really just started dropping leaves in the past day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 This looks decent... Strong omega in and about the DGZ, and some steep lapse rates in the mid-levels too, it's close to being convectively unstable too. It'd rip for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 As someone who lives somewhat closer to Lake Michigan, always have to take a look at potential negative consequences of marine influence at this time of year. Lake temps are still in the mid 50s from the shore all the way out to mid lake, which would be a problem for areas near the lake in a number of setups. BUT in this case, the progged path of the surface low means that the flow never really turns onshore around Chicago and into extreme northwest Indiana. So that concern is taken off the table this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 People were swimming last weekend lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 LOT smartly tempering any expectations and staying conservative with a rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 LOT smartly tempering any expectations and staying conservative with a rain/snow mix. Not really conservative... More along the lines of what overnight guidance suggests, with the good snows a bit north, along and north of the border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Not really conservative... More along the lines of what overnight guidance suggests, with the good snows a bit north, along and north of the border. . Mchenry Co. winter of redemption 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 the fact that this is starting overnight is really gonna help with laying down that initial layer of snow, feeling more and more optimisitc about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Can't complain with this on 11/14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 Kind of hard to pick out where any higher totals may be. Looks like there could actually be a couple zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant.We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt.The new trend has been slower for those both to occur, along with a flatter/northern entry into the US.This leads to a delayed organization, and a miss for around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Not looking too hot. I wouldn't completely throw in the towel jut yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 The game isn't over until the final out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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