Hoosier Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 First we'll have the late week system, but that's primarily a rainer for most of the sub with some flakes on the backside. In the wake of that system, additional energy will move in from the Pacific this weekend and looks to set up the potential for some accumulating snow in a good chunk of the region. It's still a bit far out, but given that it could be the first real potential snow of the season for many, I think it warrants a thread at this point. Discuss away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 I'm sure something will slide on through, but it would be great if we could get a bit more consistency on a stronger solution going. Far as I can tell, it looks like the 48 hours beforehand may actually be at least partially around freezing, so that could help a little. Better than going straight from fifties to trying to snow. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'm sure something will slide on through, but it would be great if we could get a bit more consistency on a stronger solution going. Far as I can tell, it looks like the 48 hours beforehand may actually be at least partially around freezing, so that could help a little. Better than going straight from fifties to trying to snow. Guess we'll see. The relatively chilly lead-in is certainly not a bad thing to have to help with accumulation efficiency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 I'm hoping the Euro jumps on board fairly soon. It has the system there, but its the tiniest little fart in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Some lake effect snow in my neck of the woods maybe heavier end of weekend if that Alberta Clipper comes. Usually get three snows that melt off before it stays. We already had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Bring on snow!!! I am ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Definitely looks like a legit slug of cold across the Eastern US next week. 540 line dropping all the way to the TN/NC southern borders, and definite chances for lows in the teens west of Lake Michigan next week. Winter is definitely coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 This has the looks of a mostly miss south for the Twin Cities. Although between wrap around moisture from tomorrow’s storm and this event, we might have white on the ground by Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 Would've been perfect to have DOOM write this, but I'll take RC. As longwave trough remains established into Sunday over northeastern North America, the guidance continues to hint at another low amplitude albeit stout short-wave scooting in on northwest flow Saturday night into Sunday. While it will take some time to hone in on specifics with this, air mass aloft will be cold enough to potentially support accumulating snow depending on the track/strength of the clipper- like system. For now, broad-brushed chance PoPs and snow/rain mention are reasonable. Castro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 GRR is starting to get onboard with this event. An uptick in the snow is expected on Sunday as the core of the cold air moves through with the potential for a clipper type low or sharp upper shortwave trough enhancing the snow. This feature is shearing out as it gets absorbed into the circulation of the big upper low with snow showers diminishing on Monday as it moves east and heights begin to rise. A general 1 to 3 inch snow event could be expected by that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, WestMichigan said: GRR is starting to get onboard with this event. An uptick in the snow is expected on Sunday as the core of the cold air moves through with the potential for a clipper type low or sharp upper shortwave trough enhancing the snow. This feature is shearing out as it gets absorbed into the circulation of the big upper low with snow showers diminishing on Monday as it moves east and heights begin to rise. A general 1 to 3 inch snow event could be expected by that time. Thus has been the theme the past few winters, "sheared out as it heads east". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 This isn't the worst look for a swath of light snow accumulation. As modeled, that shortwave would be potent enough for a swath of brief moderate snow that can overcome any ground / boundary layer "marginality" and accumulate. I guess one thing to watch for is that the shortwave doesn't trend flatter, as it's a fairly low-amplitude as RC's AFD said. QPF would decrease as would precip organization and intensity, which would make it harder to see accumulating snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 hoosier off to a bad thread start.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 the convective snow showers on Friday have my eye, with the strong winds and steep lapse rates could be a pretty impressive day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Still think there's a reasonable possibility of accumulations somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a runthe young crop is thin.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 I think Alek should be official 2021 spokesperson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: the young crop is thin. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a run hoosier loves it when the young guns run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 you have to be under 35 to post on this sub now. 18z GFS with a bit of an uptick north of the WI/IL border with this one. Still early but I would bet on accums with this one here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a run This was never thread worthy, even on the gfs it was a couple inches at most. We gotta save the thread making for meaningful storms and have a general thread to cover the DAB+ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 This was never thread worthy, even on the gfs it was a couple inches at most. We gotta save the thread making for meaningful storms and have a general thread to cover the DAB+ storms.couple inch events almost always get threads.probably was a bit too far out though. but tis the first potential, so.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: couple inch events almost always get threads. probably was a bit too far out though. but tis the first potential, so. . True and Wisconsin/Minnesota should cash in anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 GFS is a tiny bit better again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 GFS is a tiny bit better again. Still have some time on this one, as the wave isn’t onshore until later Friday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 DAB final call with the mood setter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 I like a general 1-3" in the main swath, though would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts. Looks like there could be a period of decent rates and there are some relatively steep lapse rates aloft to work with. Question is how far south this extends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I like a general 1-3" in the main swath, though would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts. Looks like there could be a period of decent rates and there are some relatively steep lapse rates aloft to work with. Question is how far south this extends. draw a line 15 miles north of Cedar Rapids, Ia to 15 miles north of Mchenry, Ill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 By the way, the record daily snowfall for Chicago for 11/14 is 0.8". That is the 4th lowest calendar day snowfall record in the month of November, so it's sort of a low hanging fruit. We'll see if it ends up being in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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