Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Mix line well into LO. Does the NWS ever learn?? 

Congrats Hudson Bay?

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, Blue Moon said:

Synoptic snow with the encroaching warm nose at the 850mb can be a let down. You can literally hear it coming as you observe outside. It gets noisier when that sleet starts mixing in.

Yup. This forum pretty well nailed the expectation that this was coming and discounted the various NWP snowfall projections. 

[CNY_WX]

19 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I will say this much- the long range looks quite all right for the Northern tier of the U.S. The Arctic valve has been opened! Jan. should feel much more like winter.

Where have I heard that before?

[wolfie09]

Coming down really good right now with massive flakes and we know why lol

Right now mix line is about 10-15 miles to the south, winds still out of the NE, temp has climbed to just above freezing (32.5°)..

[rochesterdave]

Still wet flakes mixing with the sleet here in Irondequoit. I think Wolfie stands a chance. The NE progression of that line has run into a bit of a wall. 

[TugHillMatt]

28 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I will say this much- the long range looks quite all right for the Northern tier of the U.S. The Arctic valve has been opened! Jan. should feel much more like winter.

Hey, nice to see you posting. How'd you guys make out up there? On the webcams it looks like almost completely covered ground there?

[rochesterdave]

It occurs to me that if this had been 125 miles NW it would’ve tapped into Ontario and delivered even higher totals. I dream of that scenario. Maybe someday. 

[rochesterdave]

Still no inch btw. You poor bastards are stuck with further bitching. Lol

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Still wet flakes mixing with the sleet here in Irondequoit. I think Wolfie stands a chance. The NE progression of that line has run into a bit of a wall. 

Of course it has. Just as long it moved far enough north to screw the Syracuse region...then it can stop.

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Still no inch btw. You poor bastards are stuck with further bitching. Lol

LOL! It really is incredible that several of us have yet to get a synoptic snowfall of more than an inch!

[vortmax]

Can't say I'm not disappointed. These 32.4 sleety rain events are way too common. Rather it be a cutter with 50-60 degrees. Really, 32.4 and rain. Disgusting. 

On the bright side, whatever moisture laden snow is left over will become an ice barrier to keep some white on the ground this week. 

[Revracer800]

All sleet in oswego right now. Sounds like golf balls hitting the car roof haha. 

[CNY_WX]

It’s been raining here for about 45 minutes…

[Ericjcrash]

Went to sleet now back to snow but its sleety. On the bright side the street is covered now lol.

[TugHillMatt]

BGM 2 PM update for next week. A "cold front" still can't drop us to average or give us snowfall. lol

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update...
High pressure will shift east of the Appalachians on Monday,
while a low pressure system near James Bay drags a cold front
across the Upper Great Lakes. Monday will be a quiet day with
partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near
seasonal normals. Some mid and high clouds will increase across
northern and western NY late in the day.

The cold front over the upper Great Lakes will graze by the area
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the strongest dynamics
for lift remaining well to our north. A few brief snow showers
will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning across the
Thruway corridor and Mohawk Valley, with some weak lake effect
showers lingering a little longer from northern Onondaga County
into western Oneida County. Any accumulation will be minimal.

While temperatures will drop behind the front on Tuesday, the
heart of the colder air will remain deflected well to our north
over the upper Saint Lawrence Valley and into far northern New
England.

[BuffaloWeather]

OP EURO is a torch next week.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Chicago is going to set its all time record for latest accumulating snowfall this year. It's going to smash the record.

[tombo82685]

About 2.8, temp 30

[Ericjcrash]

Snow and sleet, trying to hang on but cant.

[TugHillMatt]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OP EURO is a torch next week.

 

Canadian says Merry Grinchmas as well. I need a new hobby.

 

[tombo82685]

pounding pretty good, probably under half mile vis right now, parked at 29.9

[brentrich]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OP EURO is a torch next week.

 

GPS and Canadian disagree so I don't see it happening, won't be torch for us, thankfully. 

[tombo82685]

Untill that -pna relaxes its going to be trouble. You can't have a good cold pattern on the east coast when you have a trough digging down to the equator out west. You can throw -nao at me all you want, that won't do squat with the magnitude of that trough. Pac>atl

[rochesterdave]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OP EURO is a torch next week.

 

Traditional torch

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Untill that -pna relaxes its going to be trouble. You can't have a good cold pattern on the east coast when you have a trough digging down to the equator out west. You can throw -nao at me all you want, that won't do squat with the magnitude of that trough 

How about the big negative AO?

[rochesterdave]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

Untill that -pna relaxes its going to be trouble. You can't have a good cold pattern on the east coast when you have a trough digging down to the equator out west. You can throw -nao at me all you want, that won't do squat with the magnitude of that trough. Pac>atl

When does that look possible? 

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How about the big negative AO?

the neg ao just pushes the cold from the poles south and in this case right into the west with that big -pna. You need to get that trough to come east of just not be as deep.  The aleutian ridge, which is a textbook nina look, is a classic -pna signal which promotes se ridge. Up here we can work with that, but when you're talking a torugh that deep out west won't save us either. 

[Revracer800]

Downpour in Hannibal. A little coating of snow. 

[yankees102110]

Just over 2 inches here but the changeover looks close.

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

When does that look possible? 

last week it looked like we would get a bit better circulation of the mjo into phase 8 and so on. Now it looks to get stuck in 7, but I think eventually it gets into the wHEM. My guess would be any sustained colder looks waits till near or after New years. Doesn't mean it can't snow up here. All you need is the right timing. The -pna is a PITA especially how deep it is and the location of it. I like to look at the strat too for some ideas of cold shots and I don't see anything noteworthy for getting cold in the east until new years timeframe when some wave 2 hits increase with better spv alignment. The alignment of the SPV looks to favor west.  The North pacific jet continues to be in retraction phase and it's current placement is continuing to fuel the deep low north of japan, the wavebreaks from that continues to keep the aleutian ridge going, and that placement fuels the -pna. Once you see the deep low north of japan comes east, then that will signal the change in the pacific. Each feature feeds off each other, like a symbiotic relationship