Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 UK is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This looks believeable based on past experience here. Bring the changeover line right IMBY. Maybe @TugHillMatt and I stay 70-80% snow but pingers or outright rain likely to chop off an inch or so (figuring 3-4" is a max scenario). So I'd expect 2-3" here. Meh. At least it's not Fake Snow! I truly thought I was getting away from being on the mix line I grew up with in Lancaster, PA. Nassomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Most recent long range RAP is great for all 4 major Upstate Cities...half a foot for each: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Curious how the hirez GFS does. Jamestown…..lol. Gonna be tight. Even if it switches it will be brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Still no consistent cold showing up in the long range. Brief hit of wet snow then a warm up for next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Still no consistent cold showing up in the long range. Brief hit of wet snow then a warm up for next 2 weeks. Are you being hacked? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’m struggling to see the models showing this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m struggling to see the models showing this? I don’t see it either. More a return to normal. Which will feel cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Euro is warmer but also wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t see it either. More a return to normal. Which will feel cold. Normal still puts us near feeezing by months end and the GFS and Euro definitely don’t show a warmer solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 51 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m struggling to see the models showing this? Not a good look. It’s more of the same pacific dominated flow with cutters and south flow. Cold air bottled up in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’m also a lake effort guy so the upcoming pattern has virtually no chance at a good les event. It’s not a terrible synoptic pattern, not the best though. Somehow Buffalo will go 40+ many days with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Gusted to 66 on 12/11 and 58 yesterday at BUF Yesterdays departure was +24 +7 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’m also a lake effort guy so the upcoming pattern has virtually no chance at a good les event. It’s not a terrible synoptic pattern, not the best though. Somehow Buffalo will go 40+ many days with this pattern. Yeah. No arctic outbreak, that’s for sure. But synoptic chances are decent. I’m just happy there’s a chance of snow near Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Yeah. No arctic outbreak, that’s for sure. But synoptic chances are decent. I’m just happy there’s a chance of snow near Christmas. Yeah this December has been crazy. Here are the highs at BUF the last week 50, 67, 45, 48, 47, 58, 64, and I think it was in the 50s at midnight today. Average high is in the upper 30s. Potential for top 5 warmest December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 The only snow next 10 days on euro is tomorrow. Not exactly a good pattern for late December. We also get a mini torch for 2 days next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Thinking this storm has a high bust potential...."noses of warm air" usually end up over-performing around here with these modeled tracks.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 not understanding the headlines or lack there of? Did they skip the lake plain on purpose? Or just delaying a decision? Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: not understanding the headlines or lack there of? Did they skip the lake plain on purpose? Or just delaying a decision? Weird Wwa for the south for light icing. Wwa in the northeast for hitting snowfall criteria. Must be expecting no ice and insufficient snowfall for wwa along the Plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not a good look. It’s more of the same pacific dominated flow with cutters and south flow. Cold air bottled up in Canada I see that. Question is how come none of the ops are showing that for Xmas day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Looked at the 12z euro op it has a one day warmup after Xmas…not sure why it the EPS makes it look way worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looked at the 12z euro op it has a one day warmup after Xmas…not sure why it the EPS makes it look way worse than that. The eps is 54 model run average. You should be using the eps and gefs for anything beyond 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The eps is 54 model run average. You should be using the eps and gefs for anything beyond 3-4 days. Yes I’m aware. Guess I’m just surprised that very few of those runs have shown any type of real warmth is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like KBUF backed off a bit from earlier projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Latest hrrr has 6 inches in rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Latest hrrr has 6 inches in rochester. I like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Thinking this storm has a high bust potential...."noses of warm air" usually end up over-performing around here with these modeled tracks.... 3 inches on my point and click. I am definitely betting the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, cny rider said: 3 inches on my point and click. I am definitely betting the under. Yep.... And to clarify, The warm air usually over performs.... Hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, tim123 said: Latest hrrr has 6 inches in rochester. I still remember the last time the HRRR nailed one way back in 1965. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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