Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12z HRRR coming in colder than 6z but precip shield looks like doo doo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Jamestown. Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 HRRR picking up on enhancement. But I don’t trust it. This thing will come a bit further NW and punch that warm nose in. I still probably get my first inch only to watch it get washed away. Same old storm track. It’s tough to beat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAM wobbled back south some. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yeah I'll take it lol Mixing does make it to the thruway corridor but bulk of the precipitation has fallen.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Pivotal 3k is catching on. Gonna be tough for anyone who doesn’t live in the middle of Lake Ontario. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6z euro for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yeah congrats lake Ontario lol If the warm tongue is under modeled we toast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Razor's edge...as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah congrats lake Ontario lol If the warm tongue is under modeled we toast lol It’s always under modeled. Well…90% of the time. You are gonna be tight.. I’ll watch but it’s over for Buf-SYR. Pasting followed by wash 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah I'll take it lol Mixing does make it to the thruway corridor but bulk of the precipitation has fallen.. Not sure what's going on with TT's snow algorithm, but totally different output, especially in PA, where there won't be 3-4".... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 @Ericjcrash 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: @Ericjcrash I would trade an entire winter for a storm like that. Look at that cutoff it’s like lake effect 3” in Syracuse and 40”+ in and around Binghamton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Can we ever NOT be on the razor's edge.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Not sure what's going on with TT's snow algorithm, but totally different output, especially in PA, where there won't be 3-4".... They translate sleet to snow. It’s useless with these type of storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Not sure what's going on with TT's snow algorithm, but totally different output, especially in PA, where there won't be 3-4".... Yeah LEK that's why I don't use TT..It counts any wintry precipitation as snow, probably to keep the happy lol It also has a habit of ripping off the lake shore like we are part of the water lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The one thing we have going for us with this storm is that it hits on just about the shortest day of the year in regards to daylight and sun angle. We need everything we can get because the timing of this storm is about as bad as it gets in regards to the diurnal cycle. Should definitely help with surface accumulations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Lol, I thought you guys were talking about Totals Totals mentioning TT. Nerd alert. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The one thing we have going for us with this storm is that it hits on just about the shortest day of the year in regards to daylight and sun angle. We need everything we can get because the timing of this storm is about as bad as it gets in regards to the diurnal cycle. Should definitely help with surface accumulations. Yeah, defintely a bonus. RGEM holds serve and actually ticked S overall. A bit less for WNY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Would be nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Would be nice. Unlikely but I've seen more ridiculous solutions than that before. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The combination of strong high pressure ridging across northwest Ontario seeping down into the eastern Great Lakes and the approach of the low will allow for near-surface winds to turn east and northeasterly, allowing for low-level cold air to be reinforced from the north. However, the track of the surface low will be an important factor to the low-level thermal profile across the area, especially in the vicinity of the New York State Thruway as this region looks to be the delineation line between rain/wintry mix to the south and mainly snow to the north. Confidence at this point is relatively high that the cold air will hold north of the Thruway, even through the daylight hours Saturday. This will result in a mainly snow event. For areas south of the Thruway there is a warm nose in the 5-10 kft layer where a wintry mix is initially likely before a transition to rain. The wintry mix is not excepted to be of long duration which should limit any icing to fairly light amounts of less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation potential will be greatest where the cold air can hold on the longest. Best potential for roadways and paved surfaces to see accumulations will be north of the Thruway, and depending on rates, could see totals in the 3-6 inch range, with the higher end of this range most likely over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario with amounts closer to 3 inches west of Rochester, including Batavia and Buffalo. Thinking on these preliminary amounts could easily change depending on the low track which will be a big determining factor with the thermal profile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 It’s an epic battle. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Lmao Buckeyes_Suck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Meh..lol Verbatim not bad, just to close for comfort.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Meh..lol Verbatim not bad, just to close for comfort.. This looks believeable based on past experience here. Bring the changeover line right IMBY. Maybe @TugHillMatt and I stay 70-80% snow but pingers or outright rain likely to chop off an inch or so (figuring 3-4" is a max scenario). So I'd expect 2-3" here. Meh. At least it's not Fake Snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 ICON is worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Curious how the hirez GFS does. Jamestown…..lol. Gonna be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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