Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Sounds like ALY has trended to colder guidance. Saturday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 31. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night Freezing rain and sleet before 10pm, then snow. Low around 25. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 11. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I'll be happy for the Capital-region snowlovers if there's a good snowfall there. Snowfall has been pretty lacking there as well over the years. Yeah, this time last year snow was breaking out. 30"+ but the rest of the winter wasn't so kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Sounds like ALY has trended to colder guidance. Saturday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 31. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night Freezing rain and sleet before 10pm, then snow. Low around 25. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday A chance of snow showers, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 11. 11 degrees Sunday night?! Wow, it will feel like...WINTER! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: 11 degrees Sunday night?! Wow, it will feel like...WINTER! Shocking, I know lol. I think single digits are on the table if theres some solid snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. There will be a WWA issued tomorrow afternoon for Saturday is my guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. That doesn't seem to match their discussion wording but oh well. "but a risk ofs leet and freezing rain south of Lake Ontario." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. Wow. They caved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. I still say this legend is crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF definitely changed their tune...looks like they're going 4 to 5 inches north of the Thruway. This also takes into account light lake effect.. Taking this into account expecting 1-3 inches of lake effect snow late Saturday night and Sunday east of Lake Erie and south/southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester to Oswego. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: This also takes into account light lake effect.. Taking this into account expecting 1-3 inches of lake effect snow late Saturday night and Sunday east of Lake Erie and south/southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester to Oswego. Ah, now that makes more sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 RGEM went North, still gravy here but hurts some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Quite a lot of agreement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Decent shot at a white Christmas. With some mood stuff for festivities. This is 12z GFS So a lot of this falls after the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 XMas morning on the Canadian. It would be perfect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 GFS pretty much a carbon copy of 12z, tad worse it seems. Please be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 It's a dicey game we play lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's a dicey game we play lol Let’s all remember it’s the individual members that make up the ensembles…I don’t think it goes this far north but anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's a dicey game we play lol Honestly, this one feels about right. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Winds have just ramped up like crazy out of nowhere. House shaking gust. I would bet at least 55 mph. Right behind that little squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Channel 3’s snow forecast. Channel 9 is slightly more conservative bringing the heavier snow up into Oswego County and mixing into the Syracuse area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Watertown beat its record high by 9 degrees today… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 RGEM shows the critical -4 700 line a bit further north than their graphics indicate. This is gonna be close for the thruway north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Wow Syracuse just had their 2nd warmest December day on record between the 16th and 31st. Only 1° behind 2015. Three of the top five warmest readings occurred since 2015 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 519 PM EST THU DEC 16 2021 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 WAS SET AT THE SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR MATTYDALE NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR DECEMBER 16TH OF 55 SET IN 1971. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 16 to Dec 31 Missing Count 1 2015-12-31 68 0 2 2021-12-31 67 0 3 1949-1957 66 0 4 2018-12-31 65 0 - 1984-12-31 65 0 5 1964-12-31 64 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 My latest theory on the mystery radar signature is dust from this quarry. It lines up well and makes sense. Kind of looks like how a dust plume might disperse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: My latest theory on the mystery radar signature is dust from this quarry. It lines up well and makes sense. Kind of looks like how a dust plume might disperse. I'm thinking it's coming from Hank's Smoke Shop. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 FWIW 18z ICON also improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 A year ago it was really starting to rip and excitement was building. I know @BGM Blizzard remembers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: A year ago it was really starting to rip and excitement was building. I know @BGM Blizzard remembers. Deformation zone from hell (or heaven) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, vortmax said: I'm thinking it's coming from Hank's Smoke Shop. Definitely a possibility. They sell herb on the reservations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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