BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Fwiw, euro weeklies last night held into a nice normal to below normal pattern with some high latitude blocking but mainly a favorable pacific Yeah a good December, Bad January and serviceable Feb/March. I'm only interested in December as the accuracy of them goes to crap after a month out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah a good December, Bad January and serviceable Feb/March. I'm only interested in December as the accuracy of them goes to crap after a month out. My forecast for this season. It’s not the prettiest map but you get the point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: My forecast for this season. It’s not the prettiest map but you get the point. Devins snowmaps are back. I remember those back in 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Devins snowmaps are back. I remember those back in 2010. On Don Pauls wivb blog... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: My forecast for this season. It’s not the prettiest map but you get the point. I’m going with 113” at KBUF for my first call. I’m thinking we get one big lake effect event (24”+) for the metro finally this year either the last 2 weeks of November or first 2 weeks of December. Think the Southtowns see a huge lake effect event sometime in mid-late January before the lake really freezes up with 3-4 feet plus from Hamburg/OP down through Boston/Colden ala Feb 2007 only a few weeks earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Devins snowmaps are back. I remember those back in 2010. Yeah used to be a lot better a decade ago when I had a lot of free time haha. Now I barely have 5 minutes not working or taking care of a kid. Threw this together in about 6 minutes hahaha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: On Don Pauls wivb blog... He used to post them here too. I'll have to go back and grab a few. Those things were bob ross quality. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: He used to post them here too. I'll have to go back and grab a few. Those things were bob ross quality. Wish I could give this post 100 likes and lmao emojis haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: On Don Pauls wivb blog... That was more 06-09 haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That was more 06-09 haha. Oh god has it been that long? I remember most how pissed off he would get when runs two weeks out were cherry picked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Oh god has it been that long? I remember most how pissed off he would get when runs two weeks out were cherry picked. Yep been 15 years years since I started posting on the WIVB blog lol. Started on the weather forums back at Eastern Wx in Jan of 07. Man were all getting old haha. There was way too much drama on a dang weather blog back then but I guess none of us had anything better to do and there wasn’t really social media like there is today where all weather weenies can post and talk about whatever they want whenever they want freely without any consequence or ridicule. I love this forum as it’s the perfect mix of realism, optimism, and pessimism (TugHillMatt below average snow, above average temps at SYR). No one takes anything to serious but it’s not a total joke. Great place to read learn and converse about weather, sports, and other random topics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah a good December, Bad January and serviceable Feb/March. I'm only interested in December as the accuracy of them goes to crap after a month out. Are you talking about the monthlies? I looked last evening and didn’t see the new ones. Did they just come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 First post of WIVB weather blog was Nov 2007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Those were the days, especially when Don would call out the “Double Whopper w/cheese” 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Are you talking about the monthlies? I looked last evening and didn’t see the new ones. Did they just come out? monthlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: monthlies. I’ll have to take a look tonight at the new ones. Can we post euro maps on here? Just want to double check before I do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Sign me up for these two analogs in regards to pac pattern. The sst in goa and by Seattle currently still argue a hostile pacific pattern but I’ll drink to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I’ll have to take a look tonight at the new ones. Can we post euro maps on here? Just want to double check before I do so. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 A great look for upstate 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. Yep and Dec 2013 was lake effect snow event after lake effect snow event. Had 6 events during the month of December alone… Colden saw almost 100” in December 2013 alone at 91.8”. Perrysburg had over 117” in that month alone as well. where’s the dotted line for another month like that. Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too. December 1-3 2010 where 40”+ fell from SB and WS to Depew is exactly the type of storm I am thinking of this year for the big event to finally hit the metro. Move that band 5-7 miles north of where that band set up and have those amounts fall over downtown out to southern Amherst, Cheektowaga, and southern Clarence/Williamsville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Euro monthlies. Looks like a textbook nina with december looking the best then going towards standard nina look with dominate -pna supported by aleutian ridge. Wild card would be what occurs in stratosphere. December does look nice with a poleward epo and some possible high lat blocking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Welcome to the forum! You average more snow than everyone except 2 posters up in the UP of Michigan. Doesn’t wolfie in Pulaski avg more than lowville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Doesn’t wolfie in Pulaski avg more than lowville? I am not sure. @wolfie09 https://www.weather.gov/buf/WinterSeasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Doesn’t wolfie in Pulaski avg more than lowville? Where did you live before? I don't recognize your username with 12k+ posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I am not sure. @wolfie09 https://www.weather.gov/buf/WinterSeasons Looks like Pulaski is around 133” a year according to NWS so roughly the same as Lowville. Would have to think Lowville has much better snow retention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like Pulaski is around 133” a year according to NWS so roughly the same as Lowville. Would have to think Lowville has much better snow retention though. Can also drive 15 minutes up rt 177 from Lowville and be in Barnes Corners where there is sometimes 2-3x as much as in Lowville in such a short drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like Pulaski is around 133” a year according to NWS so roughly the same as Lowville. Would have to think Lowville has much better snow retention though. That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600-700') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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