BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Wherever it does snow (outside maybe the ADK, far northern NY), you can expect less than 10:1 ratio with the high thickness values. Add in the warm/wet ground in most places, I'd cut the 10:1 numbers in half atleast... esp in lower elevations. And thats assuming a non-NAM like solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 We all knew this was the likeliest scenario. They always head for Jamestown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Fifty Six degrees this a.m. That's Ballin! Agree that lower ratios and warmer ground temps should lower snow totals. We are headed for mid 60's today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Fifty Six degrees this a.m. That's Ballin! Agree that lower ratios and warmer ground temps should lower snow totals. We are headed for mid 60's today... Still “only” 45 here and I’m only 10 miles from the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 12z nam way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 They love this track. Wonder why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Yeah it's all about the"thump"..Much of the precip could be over by the time we flip east of Ontario, at least I hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Precipitation, forming within low level convergence within an inverted surface trough will arrive across the Southern Tier Friday Night, and expand across our region Saturday. Thermal profiles bring a nose of warm air aloft...ahead of the surface low into our region, with the NAM and its farther northward track of the surface low also the farthest northward with the nose of warm air. Though surface high pressure will be found across western Quebec it is not overly strong and will thus lean towards the NAM as models can struggle with the northward extent of the warm air...often bringing the warm nose to slow northward. This will result in mainly plain rain across the Southern Tier, with pockets of freezing rain...while snow and sleet towards the Thruway that produces a slushy coating before warmer air aloft changes the precipitation type to all rain through the afternoon hours. Farther northward the area of high pressure over western Quebec and its northerly flow will likely hold the warm nose of the warmer air aloft at bay, allowing for largely snow possibly mixing with some sleet across the North Country. Here several inches of snow could accumulate through the early evening hours Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I called it two days ago. Slushy inch or less. White Christmas is looking iffy. At least there is somewhat colder air available to tap into next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 This has got the right idea...the most common look with these systems over recent Winters....heavier snow over Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3k is still in it's LR but well south of the 12k.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3K really did trend south. Miracles happen. I’m preparing for the northern solution. But id much prefer this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The 12k bumped south as well. We have our general track with wiggles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 RGEM pretty much identical in back to back runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New map They heard Dave was only asking for an inch... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM pretty much identical in back to back runs. I love what it's showing...it has a good thump of snow and the heaviest stuff is south. Leaves room for some northward movement. Biggest hesitation in jumping on board is that infamous Lake Ontario and up the St. Lawrence track these systems like to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 GFS looks about the same.. Maybe a touch south at first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 GFS pretty much the same as 6z also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Cold air hangs tough on the GFS, at least at the BL.. This is pretty much the warmest frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Ggem sticking with the colder/south solution similar to the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just hit 60° here, not hating it lol Not like we have any snow to lose.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just hit 60° here, not hating it lol Not like we have any snow to lose.. 67 here and hanging out at the playground with the fam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Ukmet is colder. 3 to 5 buffalo to syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just hit 60° here, not hating it lol Not like we have any snow to lose.. Much easier to take when there is no snowpack to melt! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, vortmax said: 67 here and hanging out at the playground with the fam. Great shot. Have a fantastic time with your family in the fresh air! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Yeah ukie is kind of a middle solution, goes east from here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah ukie is kind of a middle solution, goes east from here.. I'd sign. That high is decently placed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I guess I’m not shocked the NWS is going so low, but now that the higher res NAM family has shifted south, who are they hanging their hat in? Oh and the rest of the 12z looks amazing throughout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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