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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Damn ‘13-‘14 for the win…and then there is last years, that’s insane!!! Almost makes me wonder if TugHill moved there…

1999-2004 were really high snowfall years, so that average is likely a little higher if those were included. Around 210". I had over 210" here back in 2014-2015. 88" in one storm helped out a lot but we just had an insane lake effect season that entire year. 

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22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

1999-2004 were really high snowfall years, so that average is likely a little higher if those were included. Around 210". I had over 210" here back in 2014-2015. 88" in one storm helped out a lot but we just had an insane lake effect season that entire year. 

Yea that was a good year for most of WNY. Hopefully With a strong start to lake effect season we can all cash in early 

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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Much less than it used to. There's a reason for that...

If we get another 100 < inch winter, there is no denying the snow abyss that exists over my head... haha!

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Took me 10 minutes to scrap my car off this morning. :thumbsdown:

Your poor car! Where did you take all the separate pieces? ;)

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Took me 10 minutes to scrap my car off this morning. :thumbsdown:

I rode my bicycle to work (not unusual, that's how I go to work most days).

It was spectacular.  The combination of heavy frost and ice fog had coated the fields and trees in glimmering crystals.

 

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

This is channel 9’s winter outlook for Syracuse 

https://www.localsyr.com/winter-outlook-2021/storm-team-2021-22-winter-outlook/

Bottom line is above average temperatures and near normal snowfall which is 127 inches. 
 

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Hard to go against above normal temperatures, especially in Sizzlecuse 2000.

130 to 140 inches after the past couple winters will seem like LOTS of snow. Well, it is a great amount of snow. Crazy to think that's 50 inches more than we've picked up the past couple years! Hopefully those cold outbreaks will last a decent while and/or the "above average" will because of mild 30s that snowpack can survive in.

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A tranquil and mild period will last through the first half of next
week as a strong ridge builds into the Southeast States and Ohio
Valley. The ridge axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday,
with 850MB temps peaking at around 10C. This will support highs in
the lower 60s for lower elevations with a good deal of sunshine.

The ridge will then be flattened by a shortwave moving along the
US/Canadian border later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with an
associated weak cold front dropping south across the area. This
front may produce a few spotty light showers Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. The front will also bring temperatures down
a notch for Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The ridge axis surface and aloft will then drift towards the east
coast by Thursday as a deep trough carves out over the central
CONUS. Warm advection downstream of the trough will bring an
increase in clouds by Thursday and perhaps a chance of a few light
showers, but overall preference lies with the slower 00Z ECMWF
solution which would delay the better rain chances until Friday.

&&
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WIVB put their winter forecast out I believe on Wednesday and they were forecasting above normal snowfall and average to slightly above avg temps during December-February. Looks like most are looking at the historical data regarding the warm October’s, the second year of La Niña and the already weak PV. 

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Is most of the snow LE? Or do you get a fair share of synoptic too?

Not sure about your way, but for Buffalo its about 50/50. 50% lake effect/enhanced 50% synoptic. Depending on the season that can change dramatically. One big event and its 70-80% LES and 20-30% synoptic. 

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20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

WIVB put their winter forecast out I believe on Wednesday and they were forecasting above normal snowfall and average to slightly above avg temps during December-February. Looks like most are looking at the historical data regarding the warm October’s, the second year of La Niña and the already weak PV. 

Pretty much the exact forecast I had back in September. I also thought the same last year and was off though. We didn't do terrible though despite the really warm temps in Nov-Jan. Usually in Ninas the winter starts early and ends late, the exact opposite happened last year. Sometimes these things make no sense. 2019-2020 had zero good LES events here. 

Nov: +5.8

Dec: +3.4

Jan: +4.5

Feb: -1.6

Mar:+6.3

I was able to get over 100" with those temps with a few really good LES events. 

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