Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS has nice storm around mid month, something to watch.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Just had some straight up flakes with the last cell that rolled in.  Was a bit underwhelming verifying what the radar was showing but I’ll take the flakes!  

 

 

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

The south side of Watertown and into southern Jefferson county does really well. They've been rockin' it the past several years. Lots of WSW and SW winds have brought some good events even to Watertown itself. Yes, the more dominant westerly wind (usually) can add some consistency.

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. 

 

How much does lysander get?

[rochesterdave]

3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. 

 

How much does lysander get?

I spend a lot of time in Brantingham. Just to your east. You get quite a bit more either side of the Lowville valley. Turin is an interesting town just west. It’s a blast driving around that region because of how much it varies. If Lowville has 18”, either side of it can have 3’. There are a couple roads that climb halfway up the Tug to your west, but not many- this is where I’d put a house. 
We will be delighted to have a poster from Lowville. You guys can get epic storms!!!! Don’t worry.

[rochesterdave]

10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. 

 

How much does lysander get?

If you’re moving to Lysander, I’d go about 10 miles north to Hannibal. They do well. Not sure about Lysander. 

[tombo82685]

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I spend a lot of time in Brantingham. Just to your east. You get quite a bit more either side of the Lowville valley. Turin is an interesting town just west. It’s a blast driving around that region because of how much it varies. If Lowville has 18”, either side of it can have 3’. There are a couple roads that climb halfway up the Tug to your west, but not many- this is where I’d put a house. 
We will be delighted to have a poster from Lowville. You guys can get epic storms!!!! Don’t worry.

The house I got is about 3.5 miles east northeast of lowville up about 837'. I've been viewing the northernchateau cameras this past lake effect blast. Granted it was elev driven, but there is one west of lowville up about 1800' that got a good 2-4" Then ridge view lodge at 1060' had maybe a few tenths. Then the maple ridge camera had pretty much nothing as it was mainly rain. That was in about a 5 mile drive. Crazy how much elev plays a role in things

[Thinksnow18]

Finally!!! Saw the first true flakes about 30 minutes ago! Brief shower moved through and wet snow mixed in for about 10 minutes. 

[wolfie09]

Here's the latest annual snow map for kbuf CWA..They don't cover syracuse so I wouldn't worry about that area lol But this is the 2010, 30 year average.. Definitely some flaws in the map but all the numbers are from spotters .

An updated 30-year snowfall climatology map of the National Weather Service Weather 
Forecast Office Buffalo, NY county warning area is constructed from National Centers for 
Environmental Information 1981-2010 Normals point data using a Geographic Information 
System-driven objective analysis technique, replacing the previous map that was constructed 
using human-expert techniques. The new technique, henceforth referred to as Ordinary Least-
Square Regression with Residual Correction (OLRwRC), involves a regression analysis of 30-
year normal snowfall point data across the CWA against values derived from gridded cold-
season precipitation data obtained from the PRISM Climate Group. The resulting regression 
equation is applied to the gridded Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes 
(PRISM) precipitation data to create an initial snowfall map, which is then corrected using an 
interpolated grid of the residuals from the regression. The resulting map, while not without 
flaws, is a significant step forward in the representation of snowfall climatology in western and 
north-central New York, revealing previously unresolved details and highlighting the significant 
variability in snowfall that is caused by the area’s unique geography.

Here are the updated numbers for lowville..(1991-2020)

[CNY_WX]

I like the way the 120 inch contour curves north around Matt then comes back south but manages to stay about 2 miles north of me. 

[wolfie09]

They also have a dot of 120"-140" right over KSYR 

[BuffaloWeather]

36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Here's the latest annual snow map for kbuf CWA..They don't cover syracuse so I wouldn't worry about that area lol But this is the 2010, 30 year average.. Definitely some flaws in the map but all the numbers are from spotters .

An updated 30-year snowfall climatology map of the National Weather Service Weather 
Forecast Office Buffalo, NY county warning area is constructed from National Centers for 
Environmental Information 1981-2010 Normals point data using a Geographic Information 
System-driven objective analysis technique, replacing the previous map that was constructed 
using human-expert techniques. The new technique, henceforth referred to as Ordinary Least-
Square Regression with Residual Correction (OLRwRC), involves a regression analysis of 30-
year normal snowfall point data across the CWA against values derived from gridded cold-
season precipitation data obtained from the PRISM Climate Group. The resulting regression 
equation is applied to the gridded Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes 
(PRISM) precipitation data to create an initial snowfall map, which is then corrected using an 
interpolated grid of the residuals from the regression. The resulting map, while not without 
flaws, is a significant step forward in the representation of snowfall climatology in western and 
north-central New York, revealing previously unresolved details and highlighting the significant 
variability in snowfall that is caused by the area’s unique geography.

Here are the updated numbers for lowville..(1991-2020)

That’s a terrible map for wny. Perryburg averages 200”+ and Springville/Boston/colden are around that too. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s a terrible map for wny. Perryburg averages 200”+ and Springville/Boston/colden are around that too. 

Was just thinking that. That map is WAYYYY off for WNY. 

[wolfie09]

If it's numbered it a spotter, if not then it's obviously"flawed"..

This is a trained spotter 1W Colden which averages around 167". 

[wolfie09]

Just like TS forecast has Fulton 160"-170" but that map has them 120-140, shit happens lol They obviously don't have an "average" for every area. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. 

 

How much does lysander get?

Lysander averages about the same as Lowville. But, our winter temperatures are milder than up there. Average high is around 30 in winter compared to your mid 20s.

[BuffaloWeather]

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

If it's numbered it a spotter, if not then it's obviously"flawed"..

This is a trained spotter 1W Colden which averages around 167". 

You have to be careful with spotters. Not everyone reports daily. If you miss a couple events every year the numbers are skewed.

[BuffaloWeather]

For instance Perrysburg has an average of 207.7" Where is that number on that map?

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf

[BuffaloWeather]

Another one in Springville from same link has an average of 175.6"

[BuffaloWeather]

Perrysburg

[BuffaloWeather]

COCARAHS 2011-2021, not including the snowiest 2000-2010 years.

NY-ER-77
Colden 2.4 ENE

173.5" average.

[wolfie09]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

COCARAHS 2011-2021, not including the snowiest 2000-2010 years.

NY-ER-77
Colden 2.4 ENE

173.5" average.

That map is for the 1981-2010 period..Not very much data in the 80s and 90s..

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

That map is for the 1981-2010 period..Not very much data in the 80s and 90s..

That makes more sense. Do they give those years zeros as there is no data set for that entire time period?

[tombo82685]

7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lysander averages about the same as Lowville. But, our winter temperatures are milder than up there. Average high is around 30 in winter compared to your mid 20s.

O cool. I was looking at houses down in that area as well. Was very close to buying one in Fulton, but couldn't justify the taxes around the syracuse area, just nuts. In fact I was all over the place when looking. I had one just northeast of springville, that got crushed with lake effect, but the inspection wen terribly wrong and had to get out. 

[tombo82685]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That makes more sense. Do they give those years zeros as there is no data set for that entire time period?

My guess would be, they just don't count that data in the 30 year period. So instead of dividing by 30, they just do it by how may years they have data for

[tombo82685]

16 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm loving the fact that golf is my new favorite sport.  I still love snow and cold, but now when its warm and toasty I have something really fun to do.  Definitely going to make these marginal winters going forward more tolerable.

This has been my lifestyle for the last 13 years 

 

[Flying MXZ]

12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The house I got is about 3.5 miles east northeast of lowville up about 837'. I've been viewing the northernchateau cameras this past lake effect blast. Granted it was elev driven, but there is one west of lowville up about 1800' that got a good 2-4" Then ridge view lodge at 1060' had maybe a few tenths. Then the maple ridge camera had pretty much nothing as it was mainly rain. That was in about a 5 mile drive. Crazy how much elev plays a role in things

Can't be too far from Miller's Meat Market.  Check that out for sure.

[rochesterdave]

2 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

Can't be too far from Miller's Meat Market.  Check that out for sure.

Their marinated pork steak is a revelation. 

[BuffaloWeather]

12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The house I got is about 3.5 miles east northeast of lowville up about 837'. I've been viewing the northernchateau cameras this past lake effect blast. Granted it was elev driven, but there is one west of lowville up about 1800' that got a good 2-4" Then ridge view lodge at 1060' had maybe a few tenths. Then the maple ridge camera had pretty much nothing as it was mainly rain. That was in about a 5 mile drive. Crazy how much elev plays a role in things

Welcome to the forum! You average more snow than everyone except 2 posters up in the UP of Michigan. 

[Thinksnow18]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s a terrible map for wny. Perryburg averages 200”+ and Springville/Boston/colden are around that too. 

But isn’t that our issue in general regarding the temperature as well? As long as KBUF is front and center the rest isn’t important.

[Syrmax]

12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I've been catching up on the lake effect page from Buffalo and southern jefferson does very good. O well, we will see how lowville treats me. If I get sick of the constant shadow then can always move into the tughill. 

 

How much does lysander get?

Much less than it used to. There's a reason for that...