SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 11:23 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Not much off Erie but some variance on where the Ontario band sits the longest. Be interesting to track and verify this with the post storm total map. These were the 0z Monday runs out through 48 hours ending at 7pm tonight. RGEM was the closest of the bunch for the snow in Southern Erie, but was more conservative vs the actual totals in Chautauqua overnight (10” around Jamestown area). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: These were the 0z Monday runs out through 48 hours ending at 7pm tonight. RGEM was the closest of the bunch for the snow in Southern Erie, but was more conservative vs the actual totals in Chautauqua overnight (10” around Jamestown area). That was 2 days ago and most of them have 48 hours of model time, RGEM/NAM is the only one that goes beyond 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 This was RGEM for 12z yesterday, a little too far south but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Just read the last special weather statement regarding the band…they expect it to weaken after it begins its trek north after 8pm…anyone wanna wager it doesn’t weaken? They didn’t have a hood handle in it in the first place and thus band is very healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It has 1.4 at KBUF wonder if that’s from its journey north later tonight when the S/W approaches? Yeah a little enhancement tomorrow before the band pushes south +synoptic snow showers.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Much of what the rgem shows here is for tomorrow/night.. We'll see lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 hour ago, sferic said: My observations of relocating to Cicero NY as my main place as opposed to Long Island WOW! First I am confused how Channel 3 NBC and Channel 5 CBS ( Syracuse channels ) share the same met Peter Hall during these channels same respective news slots Final snow depth from our nice little snowfall in Cicero was 3.5 inches My wife and I went to the fairgrounds today to get our booster. After driving three miles from exit 30 (rt 31) to around exit 27 I went from snow cover to nada Imagine had I bought in Brewerton, Mallory or Central Square. ( National Grid does not provide natural gas past a certain point and that was key) Anyway, like Peter Hall as a weather authority though have to find out why he is on 2 channels Hopefully a couple of inches tomorrow into Thursday Several years ago channels, 3,5 and 6 were purchased by the same company. In a cost saving measure they decided that they would only operate one news room. That’s why you see Peter Hall on both 3 and 5. I don’t know if you’ve checked out channel 9’s weather forecast. They tout themselves as central NY’s most accurate forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Just now, CNY_WX said: Several years ago channels, channels 3,5 and 6 were purchased by the same company. In a cost saving measure they decided that they would only operate one news room. That’s why you see Peter Hall on both 3 and 5. I don’t know if you’ve checked out channel 9’s weather forecast. They tout themselves as central NY’s most accurate forecast. Thanks for the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just read the last special weather statement regarding the band…they expect it to weaken after it begins its trek north after 8pm…anyone wanna wager it doesn’t weaken? They didn’t have a hood handle in it in the first place and thus band is very healthy It’s starting to move north again now but looks like it’s got a little fizzle fizzle going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Still snowing light/moderate but band is moving north now and weakening rather quickly. 6.8” here, should end up close to 7”. What a nice surprise event with 2” hour rates at times, thunder, and absolutely beautiful flake size. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Pounding out once again, we continue to in go in and out of heavy snow.. Actually "yellow" has formed several times in the same spot, to bad we can't sustain it lol.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 42 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Pulaski's been in a sweet spot today! I was surprised by the issuance of the WSW for Oswego county this morning, but now I see why. Those 5-8" totals have probably verified up the road from me. I haven't taken a measurement, but I think we are near 3" here. The band continued to oscillate into the evening hours and produce some light to moderate snow. Yeah but it's been somewhat hit or miss..So probably not much more here..Not really a "classic" band but hey we'll take what we can get lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Still snowing lightly. 7.7” . Maybe over 8” by morning ? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Nice!!! Glad some of you got some! RGEM really does well with lake effect. The same old rules apply (off Ontario anyway), they always end up a tick North. Now for our usual May in December period. Maybe it breaks just in time for Christmas?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Still snowing lightly. 7.7” . Maybe over 8” by morning ? It’s one of the reasons I love lake effect. You just never know when Mother Nature throws down warning amounts where little was expected! Enjoy bro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s one of the reasons I love lake effect. You just never know when Mother Nature throws down warning amounts where little was expected! Enjoy bro I see almost end to end warmth on the GEFS and EPS. We basically lose the next 2 weeks entirely. The reload is christmas week, I hope... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Erie looks done for the night. Nice little snowfall event for you guys. Will be interesting to see the snowfall reports as the band didn't really push to far inland or northward. Had two small crop dusters roll through here and that was it. Was a very sharp cutoff on the northern edge of that band most of the night right along 20A. Lined it up next to the topo map and makes me wonder with the conditions we saw today (lighter steering winds) the basin acts to suppress precip until it hits the rise in the elevation to the north and east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 3.9" storm total, 8.8" season total. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Erie looks done for the night. Nice little snowfall event for you guys. Will be interesting to see the snowfall reports as the band didn't really push to far inland or northward. Had two small crop dusters roll through here and that was it. Was a very sharp cutoff on the northern edge of that band most of the night right along 20A. Lined it up next to the topo map and makes me wonder with the conditions we saw today (lighter steering winds) the basin acts to suppress precip until it hits the rise in the elevation to the north and east. That's the cutoff line for most LES events. It's why the southtowns get 20-30" more per year than the northtowns do. It all makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 A few models have a couple inches tomorrow around same areas today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's the cutoff line for most LES events. It's why the southtowns get 20-30" more per year than the northtowns do. It all makes sense now. In general yes, but trying to see how much of an impact the topo has on these WSW flow events, if any at all. Sometimes the bands will lock into the basin and end up with the highest totals. But many times yes this is the cutoff line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 7.7" 2 Miles WNW of West Seneca? Something aint right here! Did someone send a report from their old home location? PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 WNW WEST SENECA 7.7 IN 1041 PM 12/07 COCORAHS 3 SE WEST SENECA 1.1 IN 0715 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE SPRINGVILLE 5NE 0.7 IN 0700 PM 12/07 COOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 7.7" 2 Miles WNW of West Seneca? Something aint right here! PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 WNW WEST SENECA 7.7 IN 1041 PM 12/07 COCORAHS 3 SE WEST SENECA 1.1 IN 0715 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE SPRINGVILLE 5NE 0.7 IN 0700 PM 12/07 COOP It’s my total in Derby. I’m a trained spotter but they still have my old info from when I lived in West Seneca. Told them they posted the wrong info in the PIS. I knew someone was going to catch on to that haha! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 7.7" 2 Miles WNW of West Seneca? Something aint right here! Did someone send a report from their old home location? PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 WNW WEST SENECA 7.7 IN 1041 PM 12/07 COCORAHS 3 SE WEST SENECA 1.1 IN 0715 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE SPRINGVILLE 5NE 0.7 IN 0700 PM 12/07 COOP They just fixed it. Issued a new one. nformation Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1139 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS (CORRECTED)... Corrected the location of the 7.7 inch snowfall report which occurred 4 NW Eden and not 2 WNW West Seneca. Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon/Elev (ft.) ...New York... ...Erie County... 4 NW Eden 7.7 in 1041 PM 12/07 42.69N/78.97W 3 SE West Seneca 1.1 in 0715 PM 12/07 42.81N/78.71W Springville 5NE 0.7 in 0700 PM 12/07 42.55N/78.58W/1694 ...Monroe County... Webster 2NE 0.1 in 0800 PM 12/07 43.24N/77.39W/275 3 SSE Gates-North Gates 0.1 in 0700 PM 12/07 43.12N/77.67W && 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 lol you getting the NWS to issue a special public information statement just for you! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 6 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: They just fixed it. Issued a new one. nformation Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1139 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS (CORRECTED)... Corrected the location of the 7.7 inch snowfall report which occurred 4 NW Eden and not 2 WNW West Seneca. Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon/Elev (ft.) ...New York... ...Erie County... 4 NW Eden 7.7 in 1041 PM 12/07 42.69N/78.97W 3 SE West Seneca 1.1 in 0715 PM 12/07 42.81N/78.71W Springville 5NE 0.7 in 0700 PM 12/07 42.55N/78.58W/1694 ...Monroe County... Webster 2NE 0.1 in 0800 PM 12/07 43.24N/77.39W/275 3 SSE Gates-North Gates 0.1 in 0700 PM 12/07 43.12N/77.67W && Glad to see the Monroe County totals didn’t need updating. (.1”) mind you, this was one of our biggest traces. Brings my yearly total to .3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Cfs has jan feb very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Good news for the long range for anyone in the Eastern U.S. who likes cold: The MJO is nearing phases 7 and 8 and there is some indication the AO/NAO are going back toward neutral. PNA also shows signs of leveling out to neutral and shifting to the positive side. If we could get those to line up the last week of December, we could be sitting in a nice pattern. The operational GFS is beginning to show this. Now, i know not to trust the operational models as much as Tug moving into my neighborhood, but it’s been a few runs so I’m becoming hopeful. If we could see the ensembles show this for that timeframe we might be in to something…and no Tug, all the houses is my neighborhood are sold…none for sale…in fact a moratorium on home sales has been enacted through 2085… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Anyone else thinking WNY will overachieve again today? NWS does not seem interested at all with the snows east of Lake Erie. Upstream radar just east of Detroit is starting to look really juicy and heading our way. Mike C even highlighted this morning he was watching a band of more intense snows forming as the synoptic snow showers move away. HRRR is even picking it up now with a very narrow bullseye off Erie this afternoon! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2021 Author Share Posted December 8, 2021 Picked up another 1.2” overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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