Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[josh_4184]

53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow that's better than I thought. You should pick up another foot with the next 2 rounds of LES too. Going to eclipse your total last year by mid December, not too shabby! As we know La Ninas favor the areas further to the NW, El Ninos favor areas to the SW. The SE ridge really hurts the east coast during Nina years.

Yea was pretty surprised especially for a synoptic event, usually we don't do to well with front end thumps, usually do better in the deformation zone. LES looking pretty solid for a day or so.  No complaints, next couple weeks looking pretty sad for most everyone but certainly wont complain about my area. 

La Ninas for my area are feast or famine, alot of times the SE Ridge cuts most systems to my west torching us but I have had other years where they do well and the clipper train kicks in.

[TugHillMatt]

Here we go again..where we reach our high temperature right before midnight. Southerly wind kicked in and the inferno of Syracuse does its job.... We could have really cold days, then a bear farts in our direction from the south and the temp skyrockets and foils the data.

[CNY_WX]

7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Here we go again..where we reach our high temperature right before midnight. Southerly wind kicked in and the inferno of Syracuse does its job.... We could have really cold days, then a bear farts in our direction from the south and the temp skyrockets and foils the data.

Don’t be surprised if we don’t hit 60 before fropa tomorrow. 

[TugHillMatt]

Models are being stingy with not much lake effect outside of the main bands. I'm rooting for these...showing a decent multi-lake connection. Most of the runs are showing it too far north over Oswego county. Freak and CNY would do well. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Don’t be surprised if we don’t hit 60 before fropa tomorrow. 

This place's ability to furnace, at its latitude, is ridiculous. (As you well know, it drives me bonkers.) I wouldn't be surprised. I will go with 58 degrees as the high though. 

With New York City not going above the mid 40s today, I fully expect us to once again be the warmest in the state for another day before midnight.

[CNY_WX]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This place's ability to furnace, at its latitude, is ridiculous. (As you well know, it drives me bonkers.) I wouldn't be surprised. I will go with 58 degrees as the high though. 

Might as well go all out and shoot for 60. KSYR currently sits at 44 and rising. 

[CNY_WX]

Somebody recently talked about the climate at Quebec City.  It’s hard to believe that as we’re in the 40s Quebec City is at 14 degrees. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Might as well go all out and shoot for 60. KSYR currently sits at 44 and rising. 

I refuse. No, no, no no no!  

A few weeks ago, I looked through lots of historical data for Syracuse, and I observed that during many winter months, the 'maximum" temperature was often in the 60s. 63 degrees seemed like a common number. It could be the first of several 60 degree days this month (Ugh).

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I guess that beats 83 degrees in December. I've seen it 

Ick...who knows in our new climate though. We've been all about setting high records these days! Ha!

[wolfie09]

Oscillating bands will most likely limit totals some.

[Syrmax]

35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ick...who knows in our new climate though. We've been all about setting high records these days! Ha!

Really?

[BuffaloWeather]

Way out there, but the pattern change around christmas into new year many are talking about.

[TugHillMatt]

18 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Really?

No, not really. More like "weather as of lately."

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Way out there, but the pattern change around christmas into new year many are talking about.

That would be a beautiful Alberta Clipper track.

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Models are being stingy with not much lake effect outside of the main bands. I'm rooting for these...showing a decent multi-lake connection. Most of the runs are showing it too far north over Oswego county. Freak and CNY would do well. 

 

Quite a bit further south than other guidance. These often verify north. I’d push these a solid 20 miles north. Like the 3K. Of course we can hope. The WRF clips me with over 6”. I’d be in heaven

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Quite a bit further south than other guidance. These often verify north. I’d push these a solid 20 miles north. Like the 3K. Of course we can hope. The WRF clips me with over 6”. I’d be in heaven

Yeah, the Rgem refuses to take it south of the Oswego/Onondaga line. In fact it looks more like WSW to Westerly flow on that model with not much NW component at all to the winds. Nams, as you posted, agree with the Rgem.

[wolfie09]

Kbgm

As CAA continues at 850 mb and temps fall to around -10c Monday
night, lake effect snow develops downwind of Lake Ontario with
northern Oneida Co seeing the band. Winds in the lower
atmosphere will be shifting through the night from W to NW so
the band is expected to be fairly transient and not sitting
over one area for too long. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches
with isolated areas of up to 4 inches is possible in northern
Oneida and an inch or less further south into the NY thruway

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

That would be a beautiful Alberta Clipper track.

I mean winter really doesn't start until Dec 21st. So much complaining already, I don't think many people know the normal temps don't really support winter in upstate until 2nd/3rd week of December.

[rochesterdave]

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

That would be a beautiful Alberta Clipper track.

It would be perfect for lake effect near Syracuse and Rochester. It really would.  

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I mean winter really doesn't start until Dec 21st. So much complaining already, I don't think many people know the normal temps don't really support winter in upstate until 2nd/3rd week of December.

Zip it corky

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I mean winter really doesn't start until Dec 21st. So much complaining already, I don't think many people know the normal temps don't really support winter in upstate until 2nd/3rd week of December.

I'm sorry. I know I complain. That's why I was posting this looks like a great possibility for clippers if it happens!  

As was discussed last week, I think it's some angst based on recent winters where December hits and that Polar Vortex seems to like to set up and the Pacific turns ugly. Plus, who doesn't want a "Hallmark Christmas" scene with fluffy flakes flying (but a scene where the snow actually looks REAL.)  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Not much off Erie but some variance on where the Ontario band sits the longest.  Be interesting to track and verify this with the post storm total map.  

[wolfie09]

I have learned not to stress over something I can't control lol Pulaski COOP probably has less snow than anyone on this board and I don't really care...On to the next one is the way I look at it.. Only a matter of time..

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

I have learned not to stress over something I can't control lol Pulaski COOP probably has less snow than anyone on this board and I don't really care...On to the next one is the way I look at it.. Only a matter of time..

Good reminder.

I doubt Pulaski has the lowest of anyone here. You guys have had several snowfalls up there. Our friend along the lakeshore in Rochester probably has the lowest for this season so far.

[wolfie09]

According to the COOP pulaski had 0.5" of snow in November on nearly 6" of precipitation and the month was slightly below average wrt temp.. Something like 8-10 traces which don't get added into the total..

[TugHillMatt]

Is that the site that is towards Richland? If so, I question those totals. If it's the spot closer to the lake, I could see that being true.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm just here to provide sizzle memes and leg photos for @TugHillMatt

[wolfie09]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Is that the site that is towards Richland? If so, I question those totals. If it's the spot closer to the lake, I could see that being true.

It's in the village which is 5 miles inland. Pulaski is in the town of Richland, next nearest site in SSE lacona which is 2-3 miles to the NE..

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm just here to provide sizzle memes and leg photos for @TugHillMatt

Sizzle + legs =

[wolfie09]

Obviously I have mentioned that they "low ball" the small amounts.. This was called a trace.. Obviously not a big snowfall but also not a trace lol But those are the"official" numbers .