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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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9 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, I just perused some of the off-topic discussions. Yeah, I can understand now why that person is no longer a moderator. Yikes. Also, some of the other "moderators" that post on there...I'm disgusted by their behavior and bullying tactics. They really should lose their "tags" as well. I'm so glad we don't have a power-tripping moderator on our sub that tries to dictate others and bully them around.

I love our Subforum! Toxic-free, other than when a few of those individuals troll our banter thread.

We troll you for entertainment!  Sizzle Sizzle...

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

First lake effect bust of the season. Couldn't even muster a dusting...or even flakes? Sun shining even under radar returns... Maybe we'll get a graupel pellet. Lol

 

 

What did you really expect this early in the season down here on the lake plain? It was pretty obvious the bulk of the lake effect was going stay north of here and our temperatures were just too warm. 

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8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

What did you really expect this early in the season down here on the lake plain? It was pretty obvious the bulk of the lake effect was going stay north of here and our temperatures were just too warm. 

It was musings about the start of lake effect season. I'm not disappointed much at all...not surprised at all as I could tell from radar last night it was waaay north. Many more of these to come...and hopefully some nice surprises.

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It's winter awareness week..

 

Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, stranding
commuters, closing airports, stopping the flow of supplies and
disrupting services. Accumulations of snow can cause roofs to
collapse and knock down trees and power lines. Homes and farms may
be isolated for days. The cost of snow removal, repairing damages,
and the loss of business can have severe economic impacts on cities
and towns.

Heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is defined as 7 inches
or more falling in a 12 hour period, or 9 inches or more falling in
a 24 hour period.

Most heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is caused by lake
effect. As arctic air sweeps across the relatively warm waters of
Lakes Erie and Ontario, heavy snow forms and falls downstream.
Snowfall rates can exceed 4 inches an hour which is enough to
overwhelm most snow removal crews and equipment. Strong winds often
accompany lake effect snow which cause deep drifts and reduce
visibility.

Heavy snow can also fall as the result of large storms called Nor
Easters which move up the Atlantic Coast. Whereas lake effect snow
usually falls in narrow bands, snow from Nor Easters can blanket
thousands of square miles.
Looking back at the historical record, Western and Northern New York
has had its share of dangerous winter storms. One only has to
remember back to November of 2014 to be reminded how dangerous early
season winter storms can be when about seven feet of snow fell
across the southern parts of the Niagara Frontier. Snow fell at the
rate of three to six inches per hour. As is often the case with many
of our heavy lake effect snow events, thunder and lightning
accompanied the intense lake effect snow.

Among all storms, the Blizzard of 1977 ranks as one of the worst.
While only about a foot of snow fell from January 28th to February
1st, wind gusts up to 75 miles an hour in Niagara Falls and 69 miles
an hour in Buffalo whipped up snow drifts over 20 feet deep, nearly
topping telephone poles. Thousands of people were stranded away from
their homes as roads became clogged and impassable. Twenty-nine
people died, many frozen to death in their buried cars. President
Carter proclaimed a federal disaster over a seven county area.

People living in and around Rochester will not soon forget the
Blizzard of March 4, 1999. Over two feet of snow accompanied by
strong winds forced the closing of the New York State Thruway and
the stranding of thousands of motorists. The National Guard was
called on to help remove cars and rescue the motorists. Power
outages affected over 10,000 customers.

You can always get the latest information on threatening winter
storms, 24 hours a day, by tuning into NOAA weather radio the voice
of the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service encourages you to prepare now for heavy
snows and the effects it may have on the region..
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“Most heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is caused by lake
effect. “- is this true? I feel like this isn’t the case at all for Rochester. Most of our heavy snow events are synoptic with some added LES. Headlines (that verify) are almost always synoptic. 
The quote may be true for Buffalo. It seems like the NWS bias is still there. Lol
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Now we sit and wait lol

Next 7-10 days looks tranquil..HP dominating the eastern seaboard..

A little warm up in store..

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55

p168i (35).gif

814temp.new (47).gif

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Now we sit and wait lol

Next 7-10 days looks tranquil..HP dominating the eastern seaboard..

A little warm up in store..

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55

p168i (35).gif

814temp.new (47).gif

Might as well be dry and mild while we do...loving that forecast. We don't want the real cold stuff coming down until late Nov thru Dec...

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.New York...

...Allegany County...
Alfred                       0.6 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP
West Almond 3.6 SW           0.5 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Cattaraugus County...
Cattaraugus 3W               2.6 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Little Valley                1.0 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Randolph 1.1 ENE             1.0 in    0730 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Ischua 0.4 SSE               0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Olean                        0.3 in    0730 AM 11/03   COOP
Franklinville 0.5 NNE        0.2 in    0728 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Chautauqua County...
Gerry 0.8 N                  3.8 in    0745 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Kennedy 2.6 SE               1.8 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Mayville 0.2 ESE             0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Dewittville 1.0 SSE          0.4 in    0600 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Falconer 0.3 WSW             0.3 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Erie County...
3 ENE Holland                1.5 in    0630 AM 11/03   Public
Boston 2.5 NE                1.2 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Colden 1.4 NNW               0.7 in    0730 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Colden 1W                    0.7 in    0730 AM 11/03   COOP

...Jefferson County...
Worth                        4.0 in    1000 AM 11/03   Trained Spotter

...Lewis County...
Highmarket 2W                2.2 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP
Chases Lake                  0.5 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP

...Orleans County...
Lakeside                     0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP

...Oswego County...
Lacona 3.6 SSE               1.2 in    0600 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Mexico 2SW                   0.1 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Minetto 0.1 SE               0.1 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Wyoming County...
Warsaw 6SW                   1.2 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Warsaw 4W                    1.0 in    0630 AM 11/03   COOP
Silver Springs 3N            0.9 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Portageville 1W              0.3 in    0726 AM 11/03   COOP
&&
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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

So I've noticed for what ever reason the pulaski spotter reports their precipitation amounts a day later.. Just like today they reported 0.04" while the rest of the reports were 0.35"-0.40", I bet that shows up tomorrow:axe:

This was for the end of October rain event..

GetMap (20).gif

GetMap (21).gif

They’ve been driving you a little nuts lately. Lol. See if you can find their house. ‘Educate’ them. 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:
.New York...

...Allegany County...
Alfred                       0.6 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP
West Almond 3.6 SW           0.5 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Cattaraugus County...
Cattaraugus 3W               2.6 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Little Valley                1.0 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Randolph 1.1 ENE             1.0 in    0730 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Ischua 0.4 SSE               0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Olean                        0.3 in    0730 AM 11/03   COOP
Franklinville 0.5 NNE        0.2 in    0728 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Chautauqua County...
Gerry 0.8 N                  3.8 in    0745 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Kennedy 2.6 SE               1.8 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Mayville 0.2 ESE             0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Dewittville 1.0 SSE          0.4 in    0600 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Falconer 0.3 WSW             0.3 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Erie County...
3 ENE Holland                1.5 in    0630 AM 11/03   Public
Boston 2.5 NE                1.2 in    0700 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Colden 1.4 NNW               0.7 in    0730 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Colden 1W                    0.7 in    0730 AM 11/03   COOP

...Jefferson County...
Worth                        4.0 in    1000 AM 11/03   Trained Spotter

...Lewis County...
Highmarket 2W                2.2 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP
Chases Lake                  0.5 in    0600 AM 11/03   COOP

...Orleans County...
Lakeside                     0.5 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP

...Oswego County...
Lacona 3.6 SSE               1.2 in    0600 AM 11/03   COCORAHS
Mexico 2SW                   0.1 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Minetto 0.1 SE               0.1 in    0800 AM 11/03   COCORAHS

...Wyoming County...
Warsaw 6SW                   1.2 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Warsaw 4W                    1.0 in    0630 AM 11/03   COOP
Silver Springs 3N            0.9 in    0700 AM 11/03   COOP
Portageville 1W              0.3 in    0726 AM 11/03   COOP
&&

3.8" was highest I could find in Southern Tier

unknown.png

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37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at some of these months in the 2000s, pretty much what we get a season now lol January/Feb 2008..

Screenshot_20211103-121714.png

Screenshot_20211103-121735.png

Probably the most impressive event for pulaski was in Feb 2008 as around 50" fell in 18hours or so..

J_label (2).png

Didn't even know about this event. An average of almost 3" per hour for 18 hours wow.

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3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

It was musings about the start of lake effect season. I'm not disappointed much at all...not surprised at all as I could tell from radar last night it was waaay north. Many more of these to come...and hopefully some nice surprises.

I saw some wet flakes mixed in for a few minutes. Enough for a 'T' in my report tomorrow. There, done for November. Next stop...SizzleMas! 

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Shortwave trough digs across later tonight all while inversion
heights (5-7kft) and temps aloft (H85 temps around -7c falling
to around -8c) remain sufficient for lake effect to continue.
Expect scattered rain showers this afternoon to transition back
to lake effect tonight. Forecast soundings show flow in the lake
convective layer westerly so areas east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario will be favored most of the night, before winds become
light setting up sharper convergence zones/lake effect bands
that will eventually shift the lake effect closer to the
lakeshores on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps
down to -7c or -8c, ptype after sunset will be snow except for
right along the immediate lakeshores. Snow amounts tonight will
depend on if bands can persist for any longer duration, but
seems that at least a couple inches will fall over western
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug
Hill with westerly upslope flow. At the high end, could see 4
inches on the Tug Hill tonight but this will depend how quickly
the lake effect gets going again this evening. Away from the
areas experiencing lake effect, chilly night with winds becoming
light. Lows where it can clear out will fall into the mid to
upper 20s.

On Thursday, lake effect will be pinned closer to the eastern shore
of Lake Erie and impacting southeast and eastern shorelines of Lake
Ontario. Ptype with the lake effect will be mix of rain snow in the
morning before changing to rain by afternoon. Given temps only as
low as mid 30s where lake effect will be ongoing in the morning,
expect minimal snow amounts to start the day. With trough overhead
Thursday, expect expanding stratocu clouds with heating of the day.
Winds will be light again but temps will also stay on the chilly
side with readings a few degrees warmer than what is occurring this
afternoon
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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Kp index just hit 7 which means northern lights should be visible on the northern horizon. Lake clouds are certainly and issue though. 

Is it normal to have all those solar events?  Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately?  For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up. 

47247D31-7209-4A55-8B73-5D22B8EAD292.jpeg

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10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Is it normal to have all those solar events?  Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately?  For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up. 

47247D31-7209-4A55-8B73-5D22B8EAD292.jpeg

Solar cycle 25 is ramping up. Still several years away from peak but we just left one of the deepest solar minimums of our life time. It’s an 11 year cycle so it’s a long haul (basically had 4 straight years without a sunspot).
We had an active (complex magnetic fields) sunspot traverse the earth facing side of the sun over the last week which gave us these couple opportunities. It’s calming down again as it’s moving around to the backside of the sun now; but I’m thankful we’ll have some regular action over the next 3 years or so. 

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