rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 EPS is more of the same (albeit in a colder climate time frame). GEFS and GEPS along with LR CFS all point towards milder conditions with zonal flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Mid December looks warm on GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 December likely ends above normal for temps. We will have negative PNA and positive NAO/AO. The worst combo. Maybe we can get some EPO help? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 We better get a white Christmas. I know BUF scored last year, but that was a razor's edge. Tired of the recent warm Decembers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Sizzle coming back in force. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sizzle coming back in force. Is anyone surprised? This is going to be a total redo of last winter. Us skiers better get our butts out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Is anyone surprised? This is going to be a total redo of last winter. Us skiers better get our butts out west! Last winter was pretty good for skiing in WNY. All trails were open from late Dec-March. This year is starting off better with them opening later this week, but they might have to close mid month or shut down a few trails temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Like I've said, our winters are eternal Novembers anymore. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Last winter was great around here. I guess I'm glad I live 2.5 hours from Syracuse. Hard to believe it was that different. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nice beautiful band of lake effect rain off of Erie this afternoon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nice beautiful band of lake effect rain off of Erie this afternoon There is SOME graupel mixed in… it’s not ALL rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 It’s pure snow inland. Out in Williamsville and Lancaster it’s moderately snowing. Too bad it wasn’t 5 degrees colder. And as for the GFS…the Euro is not on the same page…wondering which will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It’s pure snow inland. Out in Williamsville and Lancaster it’s moderately snowing. Too bad it wasn’t 5 degrees colder. And as for the GFS…the Euro is not on the same page…wondering which will be correct Hanging just north of me, took a quick lap up route 5 downtown, light mix when I drove through but roads had a slushy coating on them so must have came down good for a bit at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sizzle coming back in force. +12C anomaly...that'll be widespread well into the 50s F and dare I say (Dare Dare!) Maybe some 60's F! Potential December golf day. Some drizzle here now. How festive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 40 minutes ago, Syrmax said: +12C anomaly...that'll be widespread well into the 50s F and dare I say (Dare Dare!) Maybe some 60's F! Potential December golf day. Some drizzle here now. How festive. There it is, the dreaded southeast ridge…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Not asking for constant cold and snow in late November, but a decent storm of 3-6+ sometime during the month of November would be nice once in a while. This is pathetic... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 EPS wasn't as terrible as GEFS are, puts us in battleground for synoptic with favoring the NW viewing areas with SE ridge slowly easing in. It's a good look for Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: Last winter was great around here. I guess I'm glad I live 2.5 hours from Syracuse. Hard to believe it was that different. Truly it was. Elevation is key.. especially in these maritime-puke Winters of late. Winter here the past two Winters has featured 40 to 50 inches below normal snowfall and rapid melts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last winter was pretty good for skiing in WNY. All trails were open from late Dec-March. This year is starting off better with them opening later this week, but they might have to close mid month or shut down a few trails temporarily. I feel like you’re basing all your rosy opinions off of the hills near Holliday Valley. I think we have a single poster who lives down there (vacation home). It’s simply not realistic for the majority of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I feel like you’re basing all your rosy opinions off of the hills near Holliday Valley. I think we have a single poster who lives down there (vacation home). It’s simply not realistic for the majority of us. It's pretty close to my house, about a 40 minute drive. I go there after work during the weekdays. Kissing Bridge is closer, about 20-25 minute drive out in Colden. Many times Kissing Bridge has more snow but Holiday has better hills. Here are KB webcams https://www.kbski.com/kb-web-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Getting some decent snow shower activity, accumulating some on colder surfaces, temp just above freezing..What's funny is guidance has us mixing or plain rain as the winds veer westerly while it's snowing under a southerly flow lol Gotta love that lake.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I feel like you’re basing all your rosy opinions off of the hills near Holliday Valley. I think we have a single poster who lives down there (vacation home). It’s simply not realistic for the majority of us. I know last winter wasn't amazing for most of us, but the four week period from January 22 to late February was pretty damn incredible, 50 inches of snow over 4 weeks without a thaw in my backyard. If you have a job where you can take a last minute day off, there were some all timer days on the slopes last year. I had phenomenal days at Holiday (lake effect dump on 1/19, they got buried), Bristol, Greek Peak, and Gore. The Greek Peak day was one of the deepest powder days I've ever had on the East Coast, but you have to be able to adapt on the fly around here. Some of my friends have to schedule days off months in advance, that doesn't work out well for them... I give last winter a B- overall, but the skiing was pretty great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I know last winter wasn't amazing for most of us, but the four week period from January 22 to late February was pretty damn incredible, 50 inches of snow over 4 weeks without a thaw in my backyard. If you have a job where you can take a last minute day off, there were some all timer days on the slopes last year. I had phenomenal days at Holiday (lake effect dump on 1/19, they got buried), Bristol, Greek Peak, and Gore. The Greek Peak day was one of the deepest powder days I've ever had on the East Coast, but you have to be able to adapt on the fly around here. Some of my friends have to schedule days off months in advance, that doesn't work out well for them... I give last winter a B- overall, but the skiing was pretty great. Yeah last year was great for slopes. I hate really cold days so it was perfect. It’s only $32 for holiday weekdays 3-10 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Does anyone remember when the GFS had the cold bias? I feel like a the Euro and GFS have swapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Does anyone remember when the GFS had the cold bias? I feel like a the Euro and GFS have swapped Ha! Yup! Your question made me think of another thing about our subforum I am thankful for: We don't have any trolls that "model hug" and post every single model run to fit their agenda of "always cutters and rain" or "non-stop snowstorms." We have such a great group. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Looks like the southern Tug is getting some good Orographic lift this evening. Wishing I was up there again for this. Via Northernchateau cams, it's looking like there's a good 5 or so inches on the ground with moderate snowfall continuing. Per usual, northern Onondaga county riding the line with spits of wet snow showers this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS wasn't as terrible as GEFS are, puts us in battleground for synoptic with favoring the NW viewing areas with SE ridge slowly easing in. It's a good look for Michigan. To bad it wont verify for my area. Although I cant complain I have already had 12" event a several 3-6" events. I know it sucks for Eastern Lake belts........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 On dusting repeat here. 4 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 0z GFS for kickoff Monday night… discuss… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 0z GFS for kickoff Monday night… discuss… Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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